Will US stocks enter an adjustment phase for the first time in '24? What factors influence the January market price after 23 years of excellent performance
US stocks in '23 recorded an unexpected sharp rise of 24% as the Fed continued to raise interest rates, but can this upward trend continue in 2024/1? While the Dow average rebounded slightly in the US market on the 1st, the NASDAQ depreciated drastically. According to Oppenheimer Asset Management, US stocksTaking a break from the beginning of this year、Developments influenced by data continued until the start of the fourth quarter financial seasonThat's right.
Also, the S&P 500Over the past few weeks, it has been technically overboughtIt's there. Renaissance Macro's Jeff DeGraaf says that the momentum and breadth of the rise since October has so far surpassed concerns about the strength of sentiment. The same personThe possibility of a fall in the first quarter is quite highbutStart with the trend in hot buy mode、The decline in the adjustment phase is probably only around 4600 (3-4% decline)I'm watching it. Looking back on history, there are many cases where the S&P 500 has risen by 20% or more per year. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has recorded an annual increase of 20% or more at a rate of about 36%.
The returns after a 20% increase are spread over a fairly wide area. If the S&P 500 rises in the year following a 20% increase (65%),The average rate of increase is 18.8%. In the case of a decline (35%)The average rate of decline was 9.1%。
Of the year it rose 20%Is it difficult to rise in January of the following year. Jessica Rabe, co-founder of DataTrek Research, said in January of the year following the year the S&P 500 rose 20% since 19580.2% declineHowever, he pointed out that returns are also distributed over a wide area.
“If the S&P 500 records a strong year (+20%), it is a matter of five to five minutes whether it will also rise in January of the following year.”
Meanwhile, in the US stock market what is called“January effect”There is, in other words, positive returns are usually obtained in the first month of the new year. However, the “January effect” was seen until the 1990s, and a large negative return was recorded in the 2000s. The average monthly return for January was high again in the 2010s, but the difference was slight, and the 2020s were negative returns. Also, considering factors such as technical, sentiment indicators, and economic data, it is not always possible to obtain the January effect for this year's stock market. The following isFactors likely to influence the January stock marketIt is.
・Sentiment/ VIX Composite Index
Considering that the sentiment and VIX composite index reached the same level as in July, there is a possibility that the S&P 500 will adjust in the next few months.
Considering that the sentiment and VIX composite index reached the same level as in July, there is a possibility that the S&P 500 will adjust in the next few months.
・US stocks have already been bought too much
According to FactSet data, the 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index) of the S&P 500 rose to 82.4 on December 19, reaching a high level since 2020. Although RSI has retracted since then, it has remained around 70, which is the standard value that analysts judge as being “overbought.”
・Is the decline in the inflation rate announced in January limited
The Cleveland Federal Reserve's inflation forecast is that the core consumer price index for December will rise by 0.3% or more. If this is correct, it will be the highest price since May. Even if the core inflation rate were to drop slightly,Stock prices are unlikely to respond as enthusiastically as in the pastI think so.
・There is also a possibility that the financial results season will disappoint
Major US companies will start in the fourth quarter of '22 due to high inflation and high interest ratesRevenue declined for 3 consecutive quarters compared to the same period last yearDoing it. This “decline in performance” finally came to an end in the 3rd quarter, but investors are now and companies are in 2024Can it live up to Wall Street's high expectationsI am facing a dilemma called,
・Geopolitical factors
Many institutional investors see geopolitical factors as the biggest black swan for the global market this year. In '23, the Israel-Palestine conflict and the Russia-Ukraine conflict were still ongoing, and there was also the Red Sea route issue, so there is a possibility that these issues will not be resolved in 2024. At the same time, the United States will have a general election in 2024, and the debt ceiling issue will become a bipartisan focus.
Nicholas Colas, who is also the co-founder of DataTrek, has had the S&P 500 since 1928it has risen 20% in a row only 9 times、It's pretty rareI pointed it out. The sharp rise from 1995 to 1999 was certainly tremendous, but it is said that it was the last time the S&P 500 recorded a continuous 20% rise. According to Colas, to achieve a 20% increase, everything needs to go right.The US/global economy and corporate profits will not stall。Generative AI Proves Its ValueThen,Investor trustIt is said that it is necessary to push it up to a level similar to the latter half of the 1990s.
Meanwhile, US stocks recorded a sharp rise of 24% in '23, but looking back on the past 2 years, the S&P 500Nearly symmetrical round tripI just did it. Currently, after the high price since the beginning of '221.5%I'm back up to level. According to Ed Clissold, US chief strategist at Ned Davis Research, the S&P 500 hasn't hit an all-time high for over a year since 192814 timesIt's there. When the S&P 500 returns to an all-time high over such a long period of time, 1 year after that13 out of 14 increasesThen,An average increase of 14%It is said that they did.
ー MooMoo News Sherry
Source: CNBC, Marketwatch, ISABELNET
Source: CNBC, Marketwatch, ISABELNET
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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182358851 : seriously (--;)
181053468 : lcc
181086746 : If you look at the S&P 500, there are probably quite a few people like me who basically only speculate on stocks and want to make a profit once.
(. ･_･.)
181338057犬心久美子 : The first thing that comes first is probably the debt ceiling issue.
won't hold back on supporting Ukraine a bit either. Like someone else, they spread it all over the world, and it's a Japanese citizen's blood tax. Further from the people![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
Russia and Uk are clearly on the verge. Western countries are also tired of support.
attacked or
️ I seriously ran out of steam the other day.
seems to be on the verge.
in the background.
facing
I have to decide that I procrastinated.
Maybe America
Take it away due to tax increases. What is the new capitalism without enriching one's own country
Israel and Palestine are part of the global economy
Grip the hub part. shipping container
The cost of detours is huge, and England and America
Just
Seriously, the Donpachi War
The reason I couldn't move well
Maybe because there is a country called Iran
Geopolitical matters also have an impact on the market,
It becomes extremely unstable.
The reason the American market withstood severe tightening and interest rate hikes in 2023 was strong consumption of food and daily necessities. Wages have also gone up,
If it spreads, wages won't rise, and if wages don't rise, lock up your wallet. When that happens, I also think about concerns about a recession. Only companies and the wealthy
Even if it's fluffy, the middle class must become rich. 2024 is an election year in the world.
Mr. Biden is actually a dysfunctional person.
If the top and boss change, so does the market
Looking forward to the brighter side
Hope
千葉 : The S500 made a profit margin last year and entered the new year. I'm going to try something for the first time.
182671388 : The inflow from Japan's NISA
Will it be a support?
人類 181338057犬心久美子 : Thanks to Obama, Biden became president with Fukudai. But they will leave without learning anything from Obama. Too bad
人類 181338057犬心久美子 : Thanks to Obama, Biden became president with Fukudai. But they will leave without learning anything from Obama. Too bad
千葉 : It will work in the second half!
wwolfvct : Dog-chan adjustment
▲Due to the Great Crash!
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