Let's do it!!

PAUL BIN ANTHONY : very hopeful

Benefit : Wasn't there a decrease in Financial Estimates for Mr. Piru?

ウーロンマスク神 : I hope it exceeds 96,250.

ぴるさん OP Benefit : Well, I am thinking about it around 6 (trend continuation): 4 (trend reversal). The reason for this is as follows:
① Able to rise along with the volume
② Long/short ratio is balanced or in favor of long positions
③ During a decline, it bounced back temporarily below 0.09 million dollars.

Regarding ①, when looking at the volume moving average line, there is a point where the moving average line is flat and the buying volume is gradually increasing albeit slowly.
Also, for ②, compared to a week ago, it is clear that there are fewer people entering the market with short positions.
③ Well, it clearly functioned as a support line.

I previously wrote that 'until a specific trend event occurs, the trend will continue,' but I don't think there have been significant events yet to convert the trend. So why is it rising? I think it's because there is a vague hope that 'the market will surely rise when large investors return.' In that sense, now is the time to make a decision. If large investors decide to turn the tide and increase their purchases now, I think we might be close to 0.1 million dollars. However, the fact remains that there have been no events significant enough for a trend reversal. In that sense, I think taking a short position today while watching the American market could be an opportunity.

Well, if it doesn't work out today, I believe that dropping below 0.09 million dollars is extremely important.

ぴるさん OP ぴるさん OP : One thing to be concerned about is the possibility of a double top forming if it bounces back here.

Benefit ぴるさん OP : In Dow Inc's theory, the "continuation of the trend" is the determination of high and low (for a certain period), right?
In the 4-hour timeframe assumed in period 6, the swing high has already been established on 12/31.
The event of raising the previous swing high has occurred, and the swing low will be determined soon.
What does the event mean to Mr. Pill?

ぴるさん OP Benefit : Regarding the Dow Theory, the main point is primarily the 6th theory, which states 'A trend will continue until a clear trend reversal event occurs.' In terms of that point, it is about determining the extent of a certain period of decline. While the events leading to the downtrend are not clear, I think it could be related to the 'FOMC's hawkish rate cut stance' and 'FRB's reserve denial (this one is subtle?). In the sense of a clear trend reversal, I believe there is no direct or indirect (positive content beyond entering a downtrend) indication so far.
I didn't pay much attention to the 4-hour chart, but it looks like it was pretty bullish!
I usually look at the daily chart, and I feel like I would need at least n=5 to clearly define it as a swing low, so I thought it might be a bit early.
However, as of the time I'm writing this comment, it has risen to over 0.09 million dollars, so surprisingly it might be okay!