With the US election approaching, can Bitcoin break through $100,000 this time?

In recent days, the crypto market has surged, with Bitcoin once again breaking through $66,000 and altcoins also rebounding. StarEx exchange analysts believe that as the US election approaches, there are more positive factors in the market, and Trump, who supports cryptocurrency, is significantly ahead of Harris in polls. Market sentiment has become enthusiastic, while the US macroeconomic environment remains strong.

In the current cryptocurrency market, investors' expectations are mainly concentrated in two aspects: on the one hand, they hope that the Federal Reserve will relax monetary policy at the macroeconomic level and provide liquidity support; on the other hand, they expect the crypto industry to have substantial ecosystem development, break the current speculative situation represented by meme coins, and reduce the phenomenon of VC harvesting liquidity through frequent unblocking.

Analysts at StarEx Exchange believe that before the US election, the Federal Reserve will do its best to maintain financial market stability and prevent turmoil. Judging from the data, the US economy is still performing strongly, and the Federal Reserve seems to be sending a signal to the market to control the pace of interest rate cuts.

In September this year, the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point rate cut, and the market raised its expectations for subsequent rate cuts. It is generally believed that the Federal Reserve will continue to accelerate the pace of rate cuts in the future. After all, inflationary pressure has eased, but economic growth faces greater challenges. However, the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell suddenly cooled investors' optimism. Powell made it clear in his speech that the 50 basis point rate cut in September does not mean that rate cuts will become the norm, and the Federal Reserve will not take further rate cuts too quickly.

On October 10, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its September meeting, which showed that the meeting members agreed that this rate cut should not be interpreted as a signal of the Fed's concerns about the economic outlook, nor should it be considered that the Fed is ready to cut interest rates quickly. The minutes also mentioned that the tightness of monetary policy still exists, and the Fed's position is that the US economy is still strong, so even if the interest rate is cut, it is not out of concern for economic recession, but more based on the management of inflation expectations.

The Fed's "hawkish" policy and relatively strong economic data have made the US dollar stronger again, gold prices have fallen, the yen has depreciated, and US Treasury yields have returned to an upward trend. In particular, long-term US Treasury yields have re-entered the 4% mark, indicating that the market's expectations for further rapid interest rate cuts by the Fed are gradually weakening.

The Fed's monetary policy caught the market off guard. As early as more than a year ago, the market began to expect the Fed to turn to interest rate cuts soon. However, the Fed unexpectedly "held on" in the high interest rate range for more than a year, and even maintained a high interest rate level after the rate cut.

StarEx exchange analysts believe that the Fed cannot give the market the illusion that economic pressure is increasing and therefore it needs to cut interest rates quickly. They let the market believe that the US economy is strong, and then control the rate cuts in a rhythmic manner. Before the 2024 US election, maintaining the stability of the capital market has become an important task. Too fast a rate cut may lead to capital outflow from the United States and increase stock market volatility, which runs counter to the Fed's current goal of a soft landing. Therefore, it can be expected that the Fed will adopt a gradual rate cut approach, using time to buy market adjustment space and avoid causing economic shocks in the short term.

For the cryptocurrency market, this means that liquidity will not increase significantly in the short term, but it will not decrease significantly either. In the future, no matter who wins the election, the only way for the US government to cope with the huge debt burden is to print money and dilute the debt pressure through monetary expansion. At that time, the cryptocurrency market can once again have the opportunity to inject liquidity.

Analysts at StarEx Exchange believe that after the election, the current monetary policy and economic conditions will also change. If Trump comes to power and provides a friendly environment for cryptocurrencies and once again adopts large-scale monetary stimulus policies, Bitcoin can easily break through the $100,000 mark.

If Trump takes office to give cryptocurrencies a friendly environment and another massive monetary stimulus, Bitcoin could easily break the $100,000 mark. It's a good time to join, come along and try it for free.