Well?….Yawn………Note: (additional Notes to this post have been added and further expounded upon)
Nothing here we dont know, but alot of reporting as if its ….. reporting…….
Seems to me the stock needs to come in a bit,… or more. The big expectations regarding deliveries and consumption, just arent here.
The multiple (about 40 ) is just too high right now,….based on market comps of about 28 x ,…and based on whats being reported, … and just as importantly … whats not being reported …..is notable.
i dont know, but Jensuhn has been selling approximately 120,000 share a day since around March. Sometimes 240,000 shares or more on given days. But hes certainly not been doing any buying for quite a long time. Again, this is noteworthy.
As to the buyback, its is a bit of a pitance….hmmm…….. The “we expect Blackwell to ramp in Q4” is a bit vague.
Expenses are a bit high….. I dont know, …. seems weve come a bit too far,…. a bit too fast. P/E compression is likely until further expecations can be clarified……. what happpened to the “6 month cycle”?
While listening to Stacey Raskin, he sounded a bit underwhelmed….. you tell me…
The answer ( we expect to ”start” shipping out in q4) is again a bit vague. . Im not really inspired by what Im hearing.
Im sure in future quarters, we’ll see continuing growth in blackwell and beyond, but the lack of “ real” numbers around blackwell shipment rollouts is notably absent. additionally , The expectations of real growth are just not being “ put out there” .
I wish I could be more excited here , but, at this multiple, and this set of responses, and the lack of any real “new excitement” regarding previously unknown rollout information,..its a bit numbing.
You tell me,…. maybe Im missing something ,….. but Im just not hearing it……
if I had to guess as to where we need ro reset from,…. my “guestimate” is something right in the area of 100 or so… But again, up here in the the high 120’s and even the teens just seems. a bit rich.insofar as to what Im hearing at the moment . Great for “Hopper” and the “growth opprtunities” ….but the “clear path forward” is a bit too obscure for my comfort at the moment inthe current market environment.
Im just not hearing the “ high velocity” of YOY revnue accelaration that the street has come to expect. But this “ whale of a ramp “ doesnt. quite seem tobe on track as we’d previously come to expect, its just going to happen art a far more decompressed timeline and seems to have been rather “ extended” to a far further out estimated timeline than previously discussed , kind of “deflating the balloon” for now anyway.
I love Nvidia, but what Im hearing is just quite a bit less “ predictably enthusiatic” than the whole of the information thats being reported for right now. I have no questionthat Nvidia is going to “make it happen”,… but just at about 3 x the previously estimated timeline.
So will the stock vo higher? absolutely….. but just not for now. or the following several quarters, and by that time well have a far better feel for how hyperscalers will, or will not continue to expand their Capex spend and at “ what rate” over that time.
Ill be adding, but just not way up here.
As previously estimated, my adds will be far more in the low 100’ or under. No slight to this profoundly great company’s future.. But the ramp up to previously expected levels has just been a bit too far out expanded for me at this moment in time.
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