You should look at this chart for the collapse of the US stock market!

The US market is extremely strong even now, but when this hits the ceiling and becomes a solid depreciation rate, then”Canary in the coal mineThere are several stocks and charts that become”.

Home Depot stock price: Even in retail, large appliances and furniture are closely related to moving and home purchases. If this becomes soft, it indicates a slowdown in the economy
etc etc.

further“FedEx” is known to have often declined during the period that became the starting point of past recessions (recessions)It is.

It is a brand that is also included in the DJT (Dow Transport Stock Average) in the transportation sector. socalledEconomy-sensitive stock sectorsThat's it. Since the main thing is cargo, the economic slowdown will affect it even more directly than passengers.

If the economy deteriorates, companies will shrink production activities, so production of products will decrease in various industries, and cargo will decreaseThe performance of cargo transportation businesses such as FedEx deteriorated earlierI will.

So,If we break a milestone on the FedEx long-term chart, the US economy is in trouble!So that's it.
Basically, if the US falls, Japanese stocks will also fall, but the current situation is more pronounced. And before the collapse of the United States, Japanese stocks collapsed drastically.If the US collapses here, the Nikkei Average could go to see the 37,000 yen split instead of 38,000。

So, let's take a look at the FedEx monthly chart.

Orange is 12 months MA、Red is a 24-month MAIt is.

When you divide an orange, you also divide red. andIf the development is divided by the red 24-month MA = 2-year MA, it is entering a sluggish period of six months at the earliest and 2 years at the longestI understand that.

I already divided the 12-month MA for orange last month in May. Since this means that the 1-year average is divided, the upward trend has completely ended. The stock market looks six months to nine months ahead, but economy-sensitive stocks will be factored in about a year ahead.

There is a range of about 6% until the 24-month MA is divided, but it has been declining for 3 consecutive months and has also dropped 15% during this time.
In other wordsIf it's 6%, it will reach next monthI will.

If the decline does not stop as it is and the red 24-month MA is broken in the summer, there is a high probability that the US economy will slow down and stock prices will enter a downward trend. So, I think it's a good idea to take a look at the FedEx chart about once a week.

incidentallyAt the time of the 2008/9 Lehman shock, it also broke through the 24-month MA in 2007/9, 1 year ago, and FedEx dropped 60% from thereIt was there. andThe S&P 500 fell 50% during this timeI'm doing it.