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投資歴20年でやっと株のことが少しだけわかりだした氷河期世代です 基本ファンダテクニカルどちらも重視の長期で遊びにド短期で
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    In the financial statement I saw, it was a year-end downward revision with a decrease in revenue and profit...
    I wonder if they are in a parallel world.
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    $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$
    Continuity of Trump trade
    As expected, Trump wins the American presidential election
    It was said to be a close race in the public opinion polls, but
    American President Trump's policy, which was a landslide victory when unveiled,
    →Tax reduction
    →Tariffs
    →Regulatory relaxation
    Both lead to expectations of inflation.
    For the FRB in a phase of interest rate cuts,
    Factors that delay the pace of interest rate cuts
    And, fundamentally, the surface-level US economy is doing well.
    There are two immediate points of focus.
    Will the Trump trade (i.e. stock market rally) continue?!
    Will there be a rate cut in the December FOMC?
    Amid the high likelihood of becoming a triple red...
    The continuity of Trump's trade
    The future personnel changes by Mr. Trump are important
    Bond sell-offs with exhausted factors after the election are also coming
    While handling bond sell-offs
    Whether entering a new phase of strong interest rate increases
    Depends on the headlines of personnel.
    Every time Mr. Trump's new policies are announced, the stock market rises as well
    and the current trend will continue for the time being.
    I consider high interest rates to be predominant 😓
    In order for the flow of high bonds to become stronger
    Indicator results indicating a slowdown in the American economy are necessary
    Until that comes out, I perceive high interest rates to be predominant
    * Bra...
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    I want to keep it closed until the election~
    I'm troubled.
    I want to buy and sell according to the policy in November as soon as possible.
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    moomoo Long 20241105
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    Margin financing and securities lending in US stocks finally start at the industry's lowest levels!
    Margin financing and securities lending in US stocks finally start at the industry's lowest levels!
    Margin financing and securities lending in US stocks finally start at the industry's lowest levels!
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    $Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$ It's impossible without a hard landing, if you slowly lower it little by little, you'll just factor it in, and can't we expect any surprises? Are oil prices fatal?
    Even with high interest rates, if material costs decrease, it will result in cost reduction.
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    $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$
    Both the retail revenue and initial unemployment insurance claims in the United States this week were positive results, becoming factors contributing to the rise in interest rates 😭.
    Looking ahead, there are no major indicators, and with the presidential election looming in November, even from a technical perspective, it seems like we will enter this box chart of $93 to $95, doesn't it? It would be appreciated if this area becomes the bottom, though 😓.
    Even looking at both technical and fundamental aspects, for now in October, I'm holding my position and waiting. For those who haven't yet, it might be a good idea to prepare to wait and see! My NISA gold and stock ETFs are steadily increasing, which is nice to see 😅.
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    $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$
    TLT also seems to be stuck just below $93
    The most active day next week is Thursday
    Two economic indicators to be announced at 9:30 PM
    → U.S. retail revenue
    → New jobless insurance claims
    Current situation passing through U.S. employment statistics and U.S. CPI
    The most important indicator is likely to be U.S. retail revenue
    The number of initial unemployment insurance claims
    is announced weekly, so the fluctuations are significant
    It usually doesn't attract much attention.
    The number of new initial unemployment insurance claims on the 10th worsened more than expected, which resulted in interest rates rising due to US CPI inflation being offset by analysts.
    Will there be a temporary deterioration due to the hurricane in next week's announcement?
    In bonds, analysts are eager to know this.
    I think it is important to be cautious about significant movements at 21:30 next Thursday when the answer will be revealed 🤔
    But do not rush.
    Next week, the bad trend (increase in unemployment insurance applications) will continue.

    The unemployment rate in US employment statistics is also expected to rise.

    Decline in interest rates, high bond prices.
    or
    Good results expected next week (decrease in unemployment insurance claims).

    Was the previous poor performance just temporary?

    Rising interest rates, falling bond prices
    It's still too early to determine, so keep spinning...
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    $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ Following the strong US employment statistics, the market's speculation of an interest rate cut has receded, unfortunately leading to a decline from the rising trend of bonds 😭.
    Regardless, it seems that interest rates will move based on the published figures above! Will they rise? Fall? It moves like that 😅 This is fundamental analysis! Currently, the expectation of a 0.5% rate cut at the November FOMC has disappeared, with a 97.4% probability of a 0.25% rate cut, and even a slight 2.6% chance of no rate cut being factored in. The chart is moving so significantly in line with changes in the fundamentals.
    Market expectations are still fluctuating based on indicators, but although the employment is strong, it is not exceptionally strong, so if it eventually heads towards a decline, I want to calmly observe without rushing 👀.
    * One step forward, one step back in observation = change in degree of anticipation.
    Since I have work and swing trading is really difficult 💦, I will buy more TMF and EDV with dividends to avoid being shaken off by the noise 😋.
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    $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$
    It's difficult to decipher without a slightly longer read 🤔
    So why cut interest rates? Is it because of the deteriorating labor situation? With the activation of the SAM rule and potential layoffs ahead, does the FRB know and cut interest rates accordingly?
    After all, the FRB always cuts rates after the fact! Until just recently, they made decisions based on the numbers! A policy change that flips 180 degrees from statements of a smoothly operating American economy! Even with such manipulated labor situation data releases, the FRB's statements are closely watched! Looking back at history, can we really believe in a successful soft landing this time around? 🤣
    The candlestick analysis of TLT is also on the rise, bond investors are betting on the scenario with a high basic probability, and they know they just have to wait. What will the Black Swan turn into? Nobody knows! But the roller coaster is just a little bit away from the top 🎢
    ※Investing is at your own risk!
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