$Gold Futures(JUN5) (GCmain.US)$
I heard that the USA is buying a lot of Gold due to speculation that it might be subject to tariffs, but if on April 2nd it is announced that "Gold is not subject to tariffs", isn't it going to be a problem for Gold? Is it okay?

$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$
$USD/JPY (USDJPY.FX)$
$CME-Bitcoin RR Futures Current Contract (BTCcurrent.US)$
$Metaplanet (3350.JP)$
Are you going to break it for now!?
It may just be a rumor, but it seems like customs duties are being implemented for this reason.
It seems impossible to maintain a strong dollar while doing that...
Is Bitcoin the winner in the post-reconstruction world!?
Altcoins like ONDO seem interesting.
Meta-pla-chan is also doing her best 👍.

$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$ $USD/JPY (USDJPY.FX)$
It seems that hawkish statements have come from the dovish committee members of the Fed, and without waiting for April 2nd, the dovish side appears to be at a disadvantage. Since dollar buying seems to advance, it looks like the yen will depreciate.
The financial estimates for durable goods orders, which made me anxious, ended up landing in the positive against expectations. Autos, which had recently been in poor condition, turned positive. Coincidentally, an announcement regarding auto tariffs was made, so autos may soar in the future. Although weak numbers were seen in the estimates and flash values for the manufacturing PMI in March, if autos make a comeback, a different future may emerge. Additionally, the fact that orders turned positive in February suggests that March's sales will also be impacted. Until February, auto sales were negative, but there is a possibility they will turn positive in March. Currently, GDPNow is at -1.8%. It's unclear how gold adjustments will apply, so it's a bit uncertain, but if retail sales recover in March, I feel like the 1Q GDP will likely be positive. Many people mention uncertainty due to tariffs, but if the 1Q GDP is positive, the probability of a recession this year seems to decrease significantly.
Furthermore, the durable goods orders from January...

$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$
Yesterday, the PMI not related to ISM was released, and the Financial Estimates for ISM to be announced next week were also out. First, for manufacturing, the Financial Estimates for ISM are similar to yesterday's PMI, both below 50. Manufacturing, which was doing exceptionally well after the presidential election, seems to be slowing down early. I had been anticipating a tariff boost, but now it feels questionable whether the boost really existed. I mean, is this really the best that the manufacturing sector in the USA can do under the current circumstances?
The PMI that fell was the non-manufacturing PMI. The non-manufacturing PMI released yesterday expanded from the previous value, exceeding 54, which feels quite strong. The ISM side is slightly weaker at 53.5 previously and an estimate of 53.2. On one hand, there is the preliminary value, and on the other hand, the Financial Estimates, but the slightly weaker ISM estimate seems to fit better with my own sense.
Following the PMI release yesterday, stock prices and interest rates rose, but regarding this movement... Hmm, I'm not quite sure. I don't think yesterday's movement was a reaction to economic fundamentals. I don't know.
And everyone loves it! The Financial Estimates for the employment statistics have also been released. The unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.1 to 4.2. NFP is expected to decrease from 151 thousand to 130 thousand...

$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$
Well, up to 4.5 seems to be the established course, right? After that, whether it will drop significantly or not.

$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$
Since last month, there has been a feeling of being unsettled by the data. There are data that do not align with the story I had in mind, and there are inconsistencies with other data. It is a bit confusing. I had envisioned a story where a special demand would arise before the tariff increase, but that premise seems to be becoming suspicious.
Next Wednesday, there is a scheduled announcement for durable goods orders and predictions have come out. January had a relatively significant upward swing, so I was confident in my prediction that 'the tariff-induced special demand is indeed happening', but the February prediction has turned negative. The core was positive, so the Trucking vehicles must have stalled. I hurried to look at the January data (I hadn't checked the detailed data) and found that the data was pushed up by airplanes. It is not difficult to imagine that the explosive increase in airplanes in February will reverse. However, it is realized that, hidden behind the explosive increase in airplanes, the Autos were significantly negative. The weakness in retail was supported by the figures from orders. On the other hand, in the February employment statistics, the Autos' NFP was significantly positive. There is a possibility that orders may have reversed in February. If so, there is a possibility that retail could recover from March onwards. I want to pay attention to the orders of Autos...

$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$
The FOMC's forward guidance has been announced. Looking at the median, there is no change from the previous document in December. However, based on the dot chart and the ranges of each item, it somewhat appears to have become more hawkish. (Unfortunately...)
Regarding the FF rate, it gives the impression that the dovish individuals have moved up, with a thickening around the neutral area. The dot chart shows that some hawkish individuals predict next year's interest rates will exceed 4% (which means no rate cuts until next year). The neutral interest rate remains unchanged with the seven hawkish individuals still consistent. There was a concern that the dot chart might become erratic due to political reasons, but it seems there weren't any individuals quite that blatant.
Looking at the GDP Financial Estimates, they have become quite bearish, while the price estimates are harsh. The factor behind the hawkishness of the FF rate is likely the prices. While I am optimistic about prices, it seems the Fed is not.
It was somewhat disappointing content (I was hoping for a dovish approach), but in terms of not having dramatic changes, it was as expected. Although there is some weakness evident in the economic Indicators, it still does not indicate a serious situation.

$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$
Retail was weak in February as well. The core was as expected and exceeded the previous month, but overall, it was weak.
The first surprise was the January figures being revised down from -0.9 to -1.2.
Moreover, the biggest issue is that Autos remain negative in February and have not recovered from the previous decline.
Personally, I have been paying attention to the data on luxury goods. For two consecutive months, the results were below both the previous month and the previous year. There seems to be a lack of consumption. Additionally, employment in the service industry is weak, which supports the decline in the food and beverage sector. There are other concerning items, but overall, the situation is weak. The only exception is that online sales have recovered from the poor performance last time, but that was all.
In response, interest rates are showing... strange movements. I don't think the FOMC will lower rates, but it seems there is a possibility of dovish forward guidance.
Including the movements in interest rates, it is very interesting to see how analysts will interpret this data.

$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$
A sudden focus on retail sales forecasts has emerged! February seems to show a rebound from the weak numbers of January. A strong forecast has been released.
I don't have details on the breakdown, but production in the automotive sector appeared to be active according to PMI and employment statistics. Autos seem to be bouncing back. Additionally, attention is being paid to online sales, entertainment products, dining, and Construction Materials.
With this development, it feels like the concerns about an economic downturn that suddenly arose in February have been dispelled at this point. The rise in long-term interest rates since last week may have read this situation to some extent.
Next week's FOMC forward guidance was expected to be dovish (or rather hoped for), but when weak retail was rejected, there were no longer any elements to support a dovish forecast. The outlook for interest rate cuts seems to be stringent, and the neutral interest rate also seems likely to rise. It's also quite a headache...
I think the movement of stock prices is delicate. Concerns about recession have faded...

$German 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (DE10Y.BD)$ $EUR/USD (EURUSD.FX)$
$German DAX Index (.GDAXI)$
I think I will look for something in Funds related to Euro this weekend.