えいきちちゃん
commented on
$USD/JPY (USDJPY.FX)$
Which way do you think it will go in the end?
Please let me know your financial estimates. 🙇♂️
Which way do you think it will go in the end?
Please let me know your financial estimates. 🙇♂️
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$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$
The initial claims for unemployment insurance announced in August generally showed a decreasing trend, which is a positive factor for the economy. However, the upcoming JOLTS statistics for job openings and labor turnover to be announced tomorrow have been decreasing until the previous release, so if similar figures are reported, the unemployment rate in the employment statistics on Friday could also be a challenging number.
Of particular interest is the ISM non-manufacturing index to be announced on Thursday. In my opinion, the index for July, which was announced on August 5th and somewhat surpassed the expected and median value of 50, helped alleviate the recessionary sentiment caused by the stock market crash in August. However, this index has been below 50 in April and June. There is a significant chance that it will fall below 50 in August. On the other hand, the ISM for manufacturing will be announced tomorrow at the same time as JOLTS. The ISM for manufacturing has been stagnating below 50. While there are no surprises there, I think there will be agitation if the figures fall below those for July. This index was the trigger for the stock market crash in August, so I believe caution is still necessary.
The initial claims for unemployment insurance announced in August generally showed a decreasing trend, which is a positive factor for the economy. However, the upcoming JOLTS statistics for job openings and labor turnover to be announced tomorrow have been decreasing until the previous release, so if similar figures are reported, the unemployment rate in the employment statistics on Friday could also be a challenging number.
Of particular interest is the ISM non-manufacturing index to be announced on Thursday. In my opinion, the index for July, which was announced on August 5th and somewhat surpassed the expected and median value of 50, helped alleviate the recessionary sentiment caused by the stock market crash in August. However, this index has been below 50 in April and June. There is a significant chance that it will fall below 50 in August. On the other hand, the ISM for manufacturing will be announced tomorrow at the same time as JOLTS. The ISM for manufacturing has been stagnating below 50. While there are no surprises there, I think there will be agitation if the figures fall below those for July. This index was the trigger for the stock market crash in August, so I believe caution is still necessary.
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えいきちちゃん
commented on
$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$
Even though it was the perfect forecast for the PCE deflator, it's going up.
Were you expecting it to be below expectations?
Even though it was the perfect forecast for the PCE deflator, it's going up.
Were you expecting it to be below expectations?
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$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$
I wasn't really paying attention. The PMI numbers were also strong.
Mr. Powell said he would cut interest rates in September, so I don't think that will change, but I'm starting to feel that the schedule for rate cuts after that may slow down.
In that case, is it risk-on? No, because the interest rates are going up, is it unfavorable for stocks?
What will happen to us from now on?
I wasn't really paying attention. The PMI numbers were also strong.
Mr. Powell said he would cut interest rates in September, so I don't think that will change, but I'm starting to feel that the schedule for rate cuts after that may slow down.
In that case, is it risk-on? No, because the interest rates are going up, is it unfavorable for stocks?
What will happen to us from now on?
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$U.S. 2-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US2Y.BD)$
If the 2-year interest rate returns to 4%, it will have some impact on stocks and regional banks that were happy to see their unrealized losses on their holdings of bonds eliminated. And when will the inverted yield curve be resolved...
If the 2-year interest rate returns to 4%, it will have some impact on stocks and regional banks that were happy to see their unrealized losses on their holdings of bonds eliminated. And when will the inverted yield curve be resolved...
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$U.S. 2-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US2Y.BD)$
Looking at the economic indicators of the past two weeks, I think the outlook for the USA entering a recession in the near future has significantly retreated. Rather, depending on the results of next week's ISM and employment statistics, a slowdown in the pace of interest rate cuts is expected, and there is a high probability that it will become headwinds for bond investment. Although stocks and bonds have been moving in opposite directions, for the time being, it seems that the stock market is likely to take the lead.
Looking at the economic indicators of the past two weeks, I think the outlook for the USA entering a recession in the near future has significantly retreated. Rather, depending on the results of next week's ISM and employment statistics, a slowdown in the pace of interest rate cuts is expected, and there is a high probability that it will become headwinds for bond investment. Although stocks and bonds have been moving in opposite directions, for the time being, it seems that the stock market is likely to take the lead.
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$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$
The announcement of strong economic indicators in the USA caused a sudden rise in the 10-year interest rates.
Well, that's good, but as a result, the 10-year interest rates have approached the 2-year interest rates, which are currently inverted. This made me a little nervous, as I wondered if the inverted yield would be eliminated.
My understanding is that when the economy is bad, the inverted yield disappears, but I also wondered if the strength of the economy could lead to an increase in long-term interest rates, thereby eliminating the inverted yield.
It's my humble idea.
The announcement of strong economic indicators in the USA caused a sudden rise in the 10-year interest rates.
Well, that's good, but as a result, the 10-year interest rates have approached the 2-year interest rates, which are currently inverted. This made me a little nervous, as I wondered if the inverted yield would be eliminated.
My understanding is that when the economy is bad, the inverted yield disappears, but I also wondered if the strength of the economy could lead to an increase in long-term interest rates, thereby eliminating the inverted yield.
It's my humble idea.
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$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$
The forecast for a hard landing seems to be retreating. I don't think the employment figures will be that bad. And personal consumption also feels strong overall. Although the leading index for the manufacturing industry has consistently shown poor numbers, it seems like that has become the norm. The basis for predicting a hard landing is becoming less clear. So, as for whether I'm going to buy stocks now, I don't feel very inclined to do so. The truth is, I'm not sure what to do. It's a little scary, but maybe I should start looking at individual Japanese stocks...
The forecast for a hard landing seems to be retreating. I don't think the employment figures will be that bad. And personal consumption also feels strong overall. Although the leading index for the manufacturing industry has consistently shown poor numbers, it seems like that has become the norm. The basis for predicting a hard landing is becoming less clear. So, as for whether I'm going to buy stocks now, I don't feel very inclined to do so. The truth is, I'm not sure what to do. It's a little scary, but maybe I should start looking at individual Japanese stocks...
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$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$
The GDP of the USA in the 2nd quarter was much better than expected, so I have a feeling that today's revised value might be... but that's just my imagination. Also, there is the weekly excitement of the number of unemployment insurance applications lately. I think the basis for predicting a hard landing is the employment figures, but if we don't see a significant deterioration in the number of unemployment insurance applications today, I feel like the prediction of a hard landing will take a step back. (Because the past three weeks have not been bad)
The GDP of the USA in the 2nd quarter was much better than expected, so I have a feeling that today's revised value might be... but that's just my imagination. Also, there is the weekly excitement of the number of unemployment insurance applications lately. I think the basis for predicting a hard landing is the employment figures, but if we don't see a significant deterioration in the number of unemployment insurance applications today, I feel like the prediction of a hard landing will take a step back. (Because the past three weeks have not been bad)
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えいきちちゃん
commented on
$OSE Nikkei 225 Futures(SEP4) (NK225main.JP)$ $USD/JPY (USDJPY.FX)$ $E-mini NASDAQ 100 Futures(SEP4) (NQmain.US)$
* Top 5 approval ratings below
The lineup of candidates for the election of the party president
(Support rate according to the opinion poll "The most suitable person for the next LDP party president" by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun and TV Tokyo on the 21st and 22nd)
<Candidates who have announced their candidacy>
Taro Kono, Digital Minister (7%)
Takanobu Kobayashi, former Minister of Economic Security (8%)
Shigeru Ishiba, former Secretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party (18%)
<Expected to run (based on reports)>
Shinjiro Koizumi, former Minister of the Environment (23%).
Yoshimasa Hayashi, Chief Cabinet Secretary (2%).
Toshimitsu Motegi, Secretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party (1%).
<Eager to run (based on reports)>
Saito Ken, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry (1%)
Takai Sanae, Minister of Economy and Security (11%)
Kato Katsunobu, Former Chief Cabinet Secretary (1%)
Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa (6%)
Seiko Noda, former Secretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party (1%)
* Top 5 approval ratings below
The lineup of candidates for the election of the party president
(Support rate according to the opinion poll "The most suitable person for the next LDP party president" by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun and TV Tokyo on the 21st and 22nd)
<Candidates who have announced their candidacy>
Taro Kono, Digital Minister (7%)
Takanobu Kobayashi, former Minister of Economic Security (8%)
Shigeru Ishiba, former Secretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party (18%)
<Expected to run (based on reports)>
Shinjiro Koizumi, former Minister of the Environment (23%).
Yoshimasa Hayashi, Chief Cabinet Secretary (2%).
Toshimitsu Motegi, Secretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party (1%).
<Eager to run (based on reports)>
Saito Ken, Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry (1%)
Takai Sanae, Minister of Economy and Security (11%)
Kato Katsunobu, Former Chief Cabinet Secretary (1%)
Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa (6%)
Seiko Noda, former Secretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party (1%)
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![Pre-election survey for party president](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/181498031/20240827/48a92444409d9814b0c7230bd6dee2f2.jpg/thumb?area=105&is_public=true)
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えいきちちゃん : I think it's more like a wish than a forecast, but if the yen weakens, the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates again.