🌟Announcement of the free seminar🌟
[Date and Time]
February 22, 2025 (Saturday) from 14:00 to 16:30
[Venue]
Osaka City ※Details will be announced after registration.
⚠️There will be no web streaming, so please join us directly at the venue.
Participation fee
Free
[Overview]
We will hold a practical seminar that provides new perspectives and solid knowledge! This seminar will cover the world of quantum Computer that you should know by 2025 and market outlook.
[Benefits]
A 'Visitor Gift' will be prepared exclusively for seminar participants!
【How to Apply】
For details and applications, please check this link:
https://www.sunward-t.co.jp/seminar/2025/02/22_6/index_k.html
As there are limited seats, please apply as soon as possible!
We sincerely look forward to your participation.
[Date and Time]
February 22, 2025 (Saturday) from 14:00 to 16:30
[Venue]
Osaka City ※Details will be announced after registration.
⚠️There will be no web streaming, so please join us directly at the venue.
Participation fee
Free
[Overview]
We will hold a practical seminar that provides new perspectives and solid knowledge! This seminar will cover the world of quantum Computer that you should know by 2025 and market outlook.
[Benefits]
A 'Visitor Gift' will be prepared exclusively for seminar participants!
【How to Apply】
For details and applications, please check this link:
https://www.sunward-t.co.jp/seminar/2025/02/22_6/index_k.html
As there are limited seats, please apply as soon as possible!
We sincerely look forward to your participation.
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[🔰Let’s Study🔰] Let's learn about Employment Statistics in detail!
🔹Announcement time: The first Friday of every month at 21:30 (Japan time)
🔹 What are Employment Statistics?
Employment Statistics refer to statistical data that shows the condition of the American labor market.
Every month, the American Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics: BLS) releases these statistics, which are considered one of the most important economic indicators in the financial markets.
🔹Why are employment statistics important?
The conditions of the labor market serve as leading indicators of economic health.
・Employment is increasing → Business activities are active, indicating a strong economy.
・Employment is decreasing → Companies are reducing staff, which may lead to an economic downturn.
As a result, the employment Statistics will directly influence the stock market, foreign exchange market, interest rate market, and the monetary policy of the central bank.
🔹 Key Indicators of Employment Statistics
There are many indicators in the employment statistics, but the market particularly focuses on the following three.
① Number of Non-Farm Payroll employees (NFP: Non-Farm Payrolls)
⚫︎ Indicates the increase or decrease in the number of employees excluding the Agriculture sector.
Reasons excluding Agriculture: Agriculture is easily influenced by seasonal factors, and the essential movements of the economy...
🔹Announcement time: The first Friday of every month at 21:30 (Japan time)
🔹 What are Employment Statistics?
Employment Statistics refer to statistical data that shows the condition of the American labor market.
Every month, the American Department of Labor (Bureau of Labor Statistics: BLS) releases these statistics, which are considered one of the most important economic indicators in the financial markets.
🔹Why are employment statistics important?
The conditions of the labor market serve as leading indicators of economic health.
・Employment is increasing → Business activities are active, indicating a strong economy.
・Employment is decreasing → Companies are reducing staff, which may lead to an economic downturn.
As a result, the employment Statistics will directly influence the stock market, foreign exchange market, interest rate market, and the monetary policy of the central bank.
🔹 Key Indicators of Employment Statistics
There are many indicators in the employment statistics, but the market particularly focuses on the following three.
① Number of Non-Farm Payroll employees (NFP: Non-Farm Payrolls)
⚫︎ Indicates the increase or decrease in the number of employees excluding the Agriculture sector.
Reasons excluding Agriculture: Agriculture is easily influenced by seasonal factors, and the essential movements of the economy...
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2
Video explanation is here.
What is TOB (Takeover Bid, public stock purchase)?
TOB (Takeover Bid, public stock purchase) refers to a method by which a company publicly purchases specific stocks outside of the market. It is conducted with the aims of corporate acquisition, obtaining management rights, establishing subsidiaries, and MBO (management buyout). The purchase price, duration, and number of shares are announced, and it is a mechanism to acquire shares from a large number of Shareholders.
The mechanism and characteristics of TOB.
1. Over-the-counter trading
• Buying stocks through a public announcement rather than through a securities exchange.
• A premium price higher than the market price is often set.
2. Purchase Requirements
• In some cases, there may be limits on the purchase period and the maximum and minimum number of shares.
• If the shareholding ratio exceeds one third, a TOB must be implemented (as stipulated by the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act).
3. Possibility of Establishment or Non-establishment
• The agreement will not be valid unless the target number of shares is reached.
• The purchase conditions may change if a competing TOB is launched.
Video explanation is here.
The main purpose of TOB
1. Acquisition of management rights
• With the acquisition of more than 50% of the stocks, one can approve ordinary resolutions at the shareholder's general meeting on its own.
2. Subsidiarization
• In order to promote business integration within the conglomerates...
What is TOB (Takeover Bid, public stock purchase)?
TOB (Takeover Bid, public stock purchase) refers to a method by which a company publicly purchases specific stocks outside of the market. It is conducted with the aims of corporate acquisition, obtaining management rights, establishing subsidiaries, and MBO (management buyout). The purchase price, duration, and number of shares are announced, and it is a mechanism to acquire shares from a large number of Shareholders.
The mechanism and characteristics of TOB.
1. Over-the-counter trading
• Buying stocks through a public announcement rather than through a securities exchange.
• A premium price higher than the market price is often set.
2. Purchase Requirements
• In some cases, there may be limits on the purchase period and the maximum and minimum number of shares.
• If the shareholding ratio exceeds one third, a TOB must be implemented (as stipulated by the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act).
3. Possibility of Establishment or Non-establishment
• The agreement will not be valid unless the target number of shares is reached.
• The purchase conditions may change if a competing TOB is launched.
Video explanation is here.
The main purpose of TOB
1. Acquisition of management rights
• With the acquisition of more than 50% of the stocks, one can approve ordinary resolutions at the shareholder's general meeting on its own.
2. Subsidiarization
• In order to promote business integration within the conglomerates...
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5
The Chinese AI startup 'DeepSeek' unveiled the large-scale language model 'DeepSeek-R1' on January 20, 2025. It is said to have performance equivalent to OpenAI's latest model 'o1' in mathematical reasoning and coding abilities.
Key Features
• Utilization of Reinforcement Learning: DeepSeek-R1 learns the chain of thoughts (CoT) autonomously through reinforcement learning, without relying on traditional supervised learning. It achieves the thought process of complex problem solving through self-validation and reflection.
• In response to the cold start problem: AI is designed to respond appropriately to new situations, incorporating data on new conditions during the learning phase. The decision-making and inference process is designed to be easily understandable for users.
Performance in benchmark tests
DeepSeek-R1 demonstrates high performance in the following tests:
• AIME 2024: 79.8%
• MATH-500: 97.3%
• SWE-bench Verified: 49.2%
• Codeforces: 96.3%
• MMLU: 90.8%
• GPQA Diamond: 71.5% (o1 is 75.7%)
High versatility in various tasks...
Key Features
• Utilization of Reinforcement Learning: DeepSeek-R1 learns the chain of thoughts (CoT) autonomously through reinforcement learning, without relying on traditional supervised learning. It achieves the thought process of complex problem solving through self-validation and reflection.
• In response to the cold start problem: AI is designed to respond appropriately to new situations, incorporating data on new conditions during the learning phase. The decision-making and inference process is designed to be easily understandable for users.
Performance in benchmark tests
DeepSeek-R1 demonstrates high performance in the following tests:
• AIME 2024: 79.8%
• MATH-500: 97.3%
• SWE-bench Verified: 49.2%
• Codeforces: 96.3%
• MMLU: 90.8%
• GPQA Diamond: 71.5% (o1 is 75.7%)
High versatility in various tasks...
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日本銀行が政策金利を引き上げ、今後の経済見通しに注目
日本銀行、政策金利を「0.5%程度」に引き上げ
2025年1月、日本銀行は金融政策決定会合で、短期金利（無担保コールレート）の誘導目標を従来の「0.25%程度」から「0.5%程度」へ引き上げることを決定しました。この引き上げは、物価上昇率が2%台半ばに達する見通しが確実となったため、段階的に金融緩和の度合いを調整する動きの一環とされています。
Current Economic and Price Situation and Outlook
• Real GDP Growth Rate Forecast:
For the fiscal year 2024, it is forecasted at 0.5%, for 2025 it is 1.1%, and for 2026 it is 1.0% (with slight adjustments from the forecast as of October 2024).
• Price Outlook:
The Consumer Price Index (excluding fresh food) is forecasted to reach 2.7% in fiscal year 2024, 2.4% in fiscal year 2025, and 2.0% in fiscal year 2026, with stable price increases expected.
Wage Increases and Price Stability
In Japan, companies are showing intentions to continue wage increases from last year, which is expected to contribute to the underlying inflation rate. Wage increases improve household purchasing power and support the 2% price target...
日本銀行、政策金利を「0.5%程度」に引き上げ
2025年1月、日本銀行は金融政策決定会合で、短期金利（無担保コールレート）の誘導目標を従来の「0.25%程度」から「0.5%程度」へ引き上げることを決定しました。この引き上げは、物価上昇率が2%台半ばに達する見通しが確実となったため、段階的に金融緩和の度合いを調整する動きの一環とされています。
Current Economic and Price Situation and Outlook
• Real GDP Growth Rate Forecast:
For the fiscal year 2024, it is forecasted at 0.5%, for 2025 it is 1.1%, and for 2026 it is 1.0% (with slight adjustments from the forecast as of October 2024).
• Price Outlook:
The Consumer Price Index (excluding fresh food) is forecasted to reach 2.7% in fiscal year 2024, 2.4% in fiscal year 2025, and 2.0% in fiscal year 2026, with stable price increases expected.
Wage Increases and Price Stability
In Japan, companies are showing intentions to continue wage increases from last year, which is expected to contribute to the underlying inflation rate. Wage increases improve household purchasing power and support the 2% price target...
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What is employment statistics?
Employment statistics is a statistic that indicates the situation of the labor market over a certain period.
The main contents are as follows.
* Non-agricultural sector employment: Number of employees in sectors other than agriculture
- Unemployment rate: The percentage of people in the labor force who are looking for a job but have not found one.
* Average hourly wage: Wage per hour
Employment statistics are an important indicator for assessing the economic situation.
In particular, the number of non-agricultural sector employees is being watched as a leading indicator of the economy.
If the number of non-agricultural sector employees increases, it is considered as an indication of economic expansion.
Conversely, if it decreases, it is considered as an indication of economic contraction.
✅ Impact of employment statistics
Employment statistics have a significant impact on exchange rates and stocks as well.
When the number of non-agricultural employees increases, expectations of economic expansion rise, leading to an upward trend in stock prices and exchange rates.
Conversely, when it decreases, concerns about economic downturn increase, leading to a tendency for stock prices and exchange rates to decline.
✅ Employment statistics also affect the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
The Federal Reserve operates monetary policy with the objective of stabilizing employment and prices.
If the number of non-agricultural employees has not increased sufficiently, Stem Inc may determine that the Federal Reserve should maintain or adjust the monetary policy accordingly.
Employment statistics is a statistic that indicates the situation of the labor market over a certain period.
The main contents are as follows.
* Non-agricultural sector employment: Number of employees in sectors other than agriculture
- Unemployment rate: The percentage of people in the labor force who are looking for a job but have not found one.
* Average hourly wage: Wage per hour
Employment statistics are an important indicator for assessing the economic situation.
In particular, the number of non-agricultural sector employees is being watched as a leading indicator of the economy.
If the number of non-agricultural sector employees increases, it is considered as an indication of economic expansion.
Conversely, if it decreases, it is considered as an indication of economic contraction.
✅ Impact of employment statistics
Employment statistics have a significant impact on exchange rates and stocks as well.
When the number of non-agricultural employees increases, expectations of economic expansion rise, leading to an upward trend in stock prices and exchange rates.
Conversely, when it decreases, concerns about economic downturn increase, leading to a tendency for stock prices and exchange rates to decline.
✅ Employment statistics also affect the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
The Federal Reserve operates monetary policy with the objective of stabilizing employment and prices.
If the number of non-agricultural employees has not increased sufficiently, Stem Inc may determine that the Federal Reserve should maintain or adjust the monetary policy accordingly.
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New Year's Greetings 2025
Everyone, Happy New Year!
Last year, there were various movements in the Market Overview, but I am truly grateful that we were able to explore new opportunities together with everyone.
In 2025, I have a feeling that it will be an even more interesting year! With AI, clean Energy, and next-generation growth areas continuing to attract attention, the Market may undergo significant changes. However, let's proceed calmly, positively, and enjoyably at all times.
I will continue to support you so that your investment life becomes more fulfilling this year as well. Let's make it the best year together!
I hope that 2025 will be an exciting year for all of you!
Thank you for your support this year as well!
Everyone, Happy New Year!
Last year, there were various movements in the Market Overview, but I am truly grateful that we were able to explore new opportunities together with everyone.
In 2025, I have a feeling that it will be an even more interesting year! With AI, clean Energy, and next-generation growth areas continuing to attract attention, the Market may undergo significant changes. However, let's proceed calmly, positively, and enjoyably at all times.
I will continue to support you so that your investment life becomes more fulfilling this year as well. Let's make it the best year together!
I hope that 2025 will be an exciting year for all of you!
Thank you for your support this year as well!
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🔰Let's study🔰 Announcement at 4:00
What is the FOMC?
⚫︎What is the FOMC?
The FOMC stands for the Federal Open Market Committee, known in Japanese as the "Federal Open Market Committee". It is a part of the Federal Reserve System (FRB), the central bank of America, and plays a very important role in determining America's monetary policy.
Composition of the FOMC
The FOMC is composed of 7 members of the FRB board and 5 of the 12 Federal Reserve Banks. These members are economic experts who monitor the entire American economy and determine monetary policy.
Purpose of the FOMC
The main purposes of the FOMC are the following three
1. Inflation control: Preventing rapid price increases.
2. Reduction of unemployment rate: Reducing the number of people without jobs.
3. Promotion of economic growth: Growing the country's economy.
Activities of the FOMC
The FOMC holds 8 meetings a year and determines the policy interest rate (federal funds rate). This rate is the interest rate at which banks lend to each other, and it has a significant impact on the overall economy. For example...
What is the FOMC?
⚫︎What is the FOMC?
The FOMC stands for the Federal Open Market Committee, known in Japanese as the "Federal Open Market Committee". It is a part of the Federal Reserve System (FRB), the central bank of America, and plays a very important role in determining America's monetary policy.
Composition of the FOMC
The FOMC is composed of 7 members of the FRB board and 5 of the 12 Federal Reserve Banks. These members are economic experts who monitor the entire American economy and determine monetary policy.
Purpose of the FOMC
The main purposes of the FOMC are the following three
1. Inflation control: Preventing rapid price increases.
2. Reduction of unemployment rate: Reducing the number of people without jobs.
3. Promotion of economic growth: Growing the country's economy.
Activities of the FOMC
The FOMC holds 8 meetings a year and determines the policy interest rate (federal funds rate). This rate is the interest rate at which banks lend to each other, and it has a significant impact on the overall economy. For example...
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1. Profit growth
• Historical EPS growth rate:
The company's earnings per share (EPS) has recorded an average annual growth of 38.1% in the past, indicating stable profit increase.
• Estimated EPS growth rate for 2024:
2024年には**25.5%増加が予想され、業界平均の14.7%**を大きく上回る成長率。業界内競争力が高い。
2. キャッシュフローの成長
• Annual cash flow growth rate:
Achieved a growth of 47.4% annually. Compared to the industry average (-23.2%), the soundness of capital management stands out.
• Annualized growth rate over the past 3-5 years.:
Recorded an average annual growth rate of 27.1%. The remarkable growth of the company is evident compared to the industry average (-1%).
3. Upward revision of revenue forecast.
• 1-month historical revenue forecast increase rate.:
Financial Estimates for 2024 show a **1.7%** increase. They reflect Analyst performance expectations, suggesting the possibility of a rise in stock prices.
4. Investment Indicators
• Zacks Rank #2 (Buy Recommendation).:
Acquired the second highest 'Buy Recommendation' out of 5 levels in Zacks evaluation. Expectations for stock price performance exceeding market average.
• 成長スコア「A...
• Historical EPS growth rate:
The company's earnings per share (EPS) has recorded an average annual growth of 38.1% in the past, indicating stable profit increase.
• Estimated EPS growth rate for 2024:
2024年には**25.5%増加が予想され、業界平均の14.7%**を大きく上回る成長率。業界内競争力が高い。
2. キャッシュフローの成長
• Annual cash flow growth rate:
Achieved a growth of 47.4% annually. Compared to the industry average (-23.2%), the soundness of capital management stands out.
• Annualized growth rate over the past 3-5 years.:
Recorded an average annual growth rate of 27.1%. The remarkable growth of the company is evident compared to the industry average (-1%).
3. Upward revision of revenue forecast.
• 1-month historical revenue forecast increase rate.:
Financial Estimates for 2024 show a **1.7%** increase. They reflect Analyst performance expectations, suggesting the possibility of a rise in stock prices.
4. Investment Indicators
• Zacks Rank #2 (Buy Recommendation).:
Acquired the second highest 'Buy Recommendation' out of 5 levels in Zacks evaluation. Expectations for stock price performance exceeding market average.
• 成長スコア「A...
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CPI Outlook
- Overall CPI: Expected to increase by +0.2% month-on-month and +2.7% year-on-year.
- Core CPI: Expected to increase by +0.3% month-on-month and remain in the range of 3.2% to 3.3% year-on-year.
Gasoline prices: In November, there was a slight increase of +0.2% after seasonal adjustment.
Food prices: Influenced by the solid growth of the processed food Producer Price Index (PPI), it is expected to remain high.
Service price trends
Core service prices: Expected to be +0.32% compared to the previous month (below the recent 3-month average of +0.37%).
Residence inflation: gradually declining due to the resumption of the downward trend in owner's equivalent rent.
Airfare: Expected to decrease due to the decrease in jet fuel prices.
Some sectors (Automobile Insurance, Communications expenses): Price adjustments suppress easing of overall service prices.
Impact on the financial market.
US dollar exchange rate.
- CPI as expected: No major changes in the market.
- CPI exceeds expectations: US interest rates rise, leading to a stronger dollar.
CPI lower than Financial Estimates: Decline in US interest rates, weaker dollar trend.
US bond market
CPI as expected: No significant movement.
If CPI falls below Financial Estimates, it will further encourage the decline in US interest rates.
FRB and policy trends
Challenges in achieving the 2% target
- While labor cost easing progresses, new headwinds of tariffs and tax cuts pose obstacles...
- Overall CPI: Expected to increase by +0.2% month-on-month and +2.7% year-on-year.
- Core CPI: Expected to increase by +0.3% month-on-month and remain in the range of 3.2% to 3.3% year-on-year.
Gasoline prices: In November, there was a slight increase of +0.2% after seasonal adjustment.
Food prices: Influenced by the solid growth of the processed food Producer Price Index (PPI), it is expected to remain high.
Service price trends
Core service prices: Expected to be +0.32% compared to the previous month (below the recent 3-month average of +0.37%).
Residence inflation: gradually declining due to the resumption of the downward trend in owner's equivalent rent.
Airfare: Expected to decrease due to the decrease in jet fuel prices.
Some sectors (Automobile Insurance, Communications expenses): Price adjustments suppress easing of overall service prices.
Impact on the financial market.
US dollar exchange rate.
- CPI as expected: No major changes in the market.
- CPI exceeds expectations: US interest rates rise, leading to a stronger dollar.
CPI lower than Financial Estimates: Decline in US interest rates, weaker dollar trend.
US bond market
CPI as expected: No significant movement.
If CPI falls below Financial Estimates, it will further encourage the decline in US interest rates.
FRB and policy trends
Challenges in achieving the 2% target
- While labor cost easing progresses, new headwinds of tariffs and tax cuts pose obstacles...
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