First, I've summarized the current crash and how the decline will stop, so please take a look at it
Characteristics of former President Trump's economic policy
・Tax cuts: Implement corporate tax and income tax cuts to stimulate the economic activity of companies and individuals.
・Monetary easing: Demand interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and promote economic stimulus measures.
・Reviewing trade relationships: Change tariff policies with China and other trade partners to reduce trade deficits.
・Demand an increase in military spending from allies: Call on NATO countries and Japan to increase defense spending.
・Denial of excessive global warming concerns: Relaxation of environmental regulations, such as withdrawal from the Paris Agreement.
The impact of Trump's policies on the market
・Dominance of domestic demand stocks: Domestic demand-related stocks (banks, construction, real estate, etc.) have risen due to policies that stimulate domestic demand.
・Impact on export stocks: Export-related stocks are negatively affected due to a review of trade relations and the impact of the appreciation of the dollar.
Impact on Japanese stocks
・Advantages of small and medium growth stocks: There are many domestic demand-related stocks in Japanese small and medium cap stocks, and it is easy to benefit from Trump's policy.
・Target Sectors: Domestic demand-related (banking/construction/real estate), energy, and defense-related stocks are attracting attention.
The shift from the depreciation of the yen to the appreciation of the yen...

・Yen appreciation due to Bank of Japan's early interest rate hike observations, risk of economic modulation, and uncertain factors in the US presidential election
・After hitting a high on 7/11, the Nikkei Stock Average plummeted and fell 10% or more in 9 business days
・The dollar to yen exchange rate is also rapidly appreciating, and sales of Japanese stocks by overseas investors are progressing
Economic modulation
・The US manufacturing business index (PMI) fell below 50, and new home sales also declined
・Even though the Federal Reserve (Federal Reserve) continues to raise interest rates as a countermeasure against inflation, there are signs that the economy is slowing down
BOJ's Gradual Interest Rate Hike Scenario
・In Japan, exchange intervention observations and statements by Liberal Democratic Party politicians promote the appreciation of the yen
・A reduction in government bond purchases is predicted at the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting from 7/30 to 31, but the possibility of interest rate hikes is low
US presidential election
・Vice President Kamala Harris's approval rating surpasses that of former President Trump in the US presidential election in November
・There is a possibility that trends in US stocks and Japanese stocks will be affected by the election situation
　　
A detailed explanation of the Nikkei Average can be found on YouTube!

What are the retail sales figures announced at 21:30?
I'm Kabuzaru, an investment creator who is a former securities man. @kabuzaru
Retail sales are the total amount of goods and services sold by retail and service businesses.
It is an important economic indicator showing trends in private consumption, which accounts for approximately 70% of gross domestic product (GDP).
Retail sales are announced monthly by the U.S. Department of Commerce Census Bureau.
The announcement date is around the 2nd week of the month following the target month.
Retail sales can be broadly divided into two categories: the “① automobile and similar parts” division and the “② non-automobile” division.
The automotive and parts division accounts for approximately 40% of total retail sales.
The non-automotive sector is a division that deals with products and services other than automobiles, such as clothing, appliances, furniture, food, beverages, and services.
Retail sales have an impact on stock quotes and the Fed's policy.
✔ ︎ Stock quotes
When retail sales exceed expectations, it is taken as an indication of economic expansion, and stock prices tend to rise.
Conversely, when retail sales fall below expectations, it is taken as indicating a deceleration in the economy, and stock prices tend to fall.
✔ ︎ Federal Reserve Policy
The Federal Reserve suppressed price increases...

There is evidence that the intervention was carried out 🔍
Based on the current account balance forecast for the 16th announced by the Bank of Japan on 7/12, there are widespread observations in the market that yen buying intervention on a scale of 3 trillion to 4 trillion yen was carried out on the night of the 11th.
According to the Bank of Japan's forecast, the amount of decline due to “fiscal factors” reflecting exchange intervention is 3 trillion170 billion yen, and there is a difference of about 3-4 trillion yen in this figure compared to prior market estimates that do not anticipate intervention.
Here's why the dollar still hasn't stopped! It's very easy to understand!

PPI (Producer Price Index) is an index for examining price fluctuations of products made by American companies.
It is an index that indexes prices traded between companies for raw materials and products shipped by producers, and is used as a yardstick to measure price movements.
Since it shows price trends upstream, it is attracting attention as a leading indicator for downstream CPI (Consumer Price Index) and corporate performance/stock prices.
Simply put, it is for investigating price fluctuations when a company purchases a product or service. (CPI is the price change when a consumer purchases a product or service)
In other words, it shows changes in the money that people who make products and grow crops can receive.
PPI is a clue to know whether prices will rise or fall, and price changes are expressed as a percentage by comparing sales items (approximately 0.01 million items) of US manufacturers with an index (1982 = 100) that measures prices.
For example, if the PPI is 102, it means that the price has increased by 2%.
Each of the 3 stages (raw materials, intermediate goods, finished goods) in the production process is measured, but in general, the final finished product...

✔ ︎ What is CPI?
CPI stands for Consumer Price Index and is the consumer price index.
The consumer price index is an index that measures price fluctuations for products and services purchased by general consumers on a daily basis.
The US Department of Labor announces the CPI every month.
CPI is an important indicator for measuring the inflation rate in America, and is used when making monetary policy decisions and judging economic trends.
CPI consists of approximately 200 types of items.
These items are selected based on the structure of household expenditure, and cover all products and services necessary for daily life, such as clothing, groceries, housing, transportation, education, and medical expenses.
✔ ︎ Why is it important?
The Federal Reserve aims to keep inflation down to 2%. Therefore, if the CPI exceeds expectations, there is a high possibility that the Fed will move to raise additional interest rates.
Specifically, the Fed will try to curb inflation by raising policy interest rates.
As policy interest rates rise, borrowing costs increase, so the risk that the economy will recede increases.
Meanwhile, if CPI falls short of expectations, the Fed will ease interest rate hikes...

US market
The momentum of private consumption has waned, and the pace of economic expansion has slowed.
Retail sales increased 0.4% from the previous month, and industrial production increased 0.9% from the previous month.
According to employment statistics for May, the number of employed people increased by 272,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.0%.
The consumer price index (core CPI) rose 3.4% from the previous year.
Interest rate cuts are expected once within the year according to the FOMC in June.
The Dow Average and S&P 500 continued to rise in June.
Adjustments in high-tech and semiconductor-related stocks can be seen.
Investment funds are concentrated in AI-related stocks.
The US economy is expected to have a GDP growth rate of 2.1% at the end of 2024.
Japan Market
Even though the effects of wage increases have begun to appear, the recovery in consumption has been slow.
The sentiment of households and small and medium-sized enterprises worsened due to the May business watcher survey.
Industrial production increased in May, and fraud by major automobile companies in June was affected.
The national consumer price index (CPI) for May rose 2.5% from the previous year.
A reduction in the Bank of Japan's long-term government bond purchases has been decided.
The Nikkei Average and TOPIX in June continued to rise.
The announcement of financial results for the fiscal year ending April-6 by major companies is the key to stock prices.
exchange rate
The dollar exchange rate in June was the highest since 1986.
Yen sales by speculators lead to an appreciation of the US dollar and depreciation of the yen.
The US dollar/yen is expected to be solid in July.
The euro has depreciated, and the euro yen is in history...

Details of the investigation
The Bank of Japan's short view is a survey conducted every 3 months targeting more than 9,000 domestic companies. This survey was conducted for about 1 month until late June. The economy is judged by an index obtained by subtracting the ratio of companies that answered “bad” from the ratio of companies that answered that the economy was “good.”
Business Confidence in the Large Enterprise Manufacturing Industry
Improved business confidence
On 2024/7/1, the Bank of Japan announced the latest corporate short-term economic observation survey (short view). The business condition judgment index (DI) of the large enterprise manufacturing industry improved 2 points from the previous 11 to 13, the first improvement in 2 quarters. The index also surpassed market expectations.
Impact of authentication fraud issues
However, business confidence in automobiles and steel, which is a related industry, deteriorated. The main cause is the automobile certification fraud issue that surfaced in June, and nominal GDP is expected to decrease by 98.37 billion yen due to this problem, and production values, including related industries, will decrease by 244 billion yen. The outlook for the future has also deteriorated, and there are concerns that this issue will prolong.
Effects of the depreciation of the yen
Meanwhile, the depreciation of the yen boosted the business confidence of export-oriented companies. In particular, the materials industry led the improvement in business confidence, and business condition judgment DI for the large enterprise manufacturing industry as a whole improved...