Looking at the short to medium term interest rates in Japanese Yen and US Dollar, it is almost certain that the Fed will cut rates and the Bank of Japan will raise rates. The market is expected to be seeing this, so I would like to organize the recent trading process.
In carry trade, it has been reasonable globally to borrow low-interest assets and invest in high-interest assets to make a profit. Therefore, it was logical to borrow the low-interest Yen and invest in the high-interest Dollar.
Considering the recent policy changes of the Fed and the Bank of Japan, the flow has reversed, leading to a stronger Yen and weaker Dollar, reaching levels around 140 Yen per Dollar. It is now considered theoretically optimal to sell Dollars and buy Yen. In the very short term, I believe that Tokyo's price index and personnel changes in the US new administration were significant factors driving this.
Even if the Japanese yen interest rate reaches 0.5% and the U.S. interest rate reaches 3.5%, there is still a 3% interest rate difference between the two, so it is not enough to completely reverse carry trades. Therefore, it is anticipated that temporary yen strength and dollar weakness will occur, but this is expected to be limited. Even if the interest rate difference between the two disappears in the future, it is expected to happen quite far in the future, and during that time, the relative interest rates...
In carry trade, it has been reasonable globally to borrow low-interest assets and invest in high-interest assets to make a profit. Therefore, it was logical to borrow the low-interest Yen and invest in the high-interest Dollar.
Considering the recent policy changes of the Fed and the Bank of Japan, the flow has reversed, leading to a stronger Yen and weaker Dollar, reaching levels around 140 Yen per Dollar. It is now considered theoretically optimal to sell Dollars and buy Yen. In the very short term, I believe that Tokyo's price index and personnel changes in the US new administration were significant factors driving this.
Even if the Japanese yen interest rate reaches 0.5% and the U.S. interest rate reaches 3.5%, there is still a 3% interest rate difference between the two, so it is not enough to completely reverse carry trades. Therefore, it is anticipated that temporary yen strength and dollar weakness will occur, but this is expected to be limited. Even if the interest rate difference between the two disappears in the future, it is expected to happen quite far in the future, and during that time, the relative interest rates...
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Entering the second half of this year, as part of the portfolio and significantly increasing the position in MSTR after the U.S. presidential election, the current unrealized gains exceed $0.12 million.
As for future plans, a partial or complete profit-taking and position adjustments will be made. At this stage, it is not pessimistic about the future, but rather a response to the fact that the position has become significantly larger than the risk tolerance. Depending on the market, the timing of profit-taking and the amount of adjustment will vary.
In the current analysis, MSTR has increased its holdings by buying more through convertible bonds for financing, with over 0.33 million BTC currently held, which is well over 1% of the total circulating Bitcoin supply, making it the number one publicly traded company. When converted at $0.09 million per 1 BTC, it is approximately $30 billion, and considering from MSTR's market capitalization, it is not hard to imagine that the Bitcoin price directly affects the stock price. A similar situation is observed with MARA, currently in second place, which has also announced plans to acquire Bitcoin using part of the funds from bond issuance.
On the other hand, in contrast to the rise in the value of bitcoin, MSTR's share price increase seems to have a relatively leveraged situation...
As for future plans, a partial or complete profit-taking and position adjustments will be made. At this stage, it is not pessimistic about the future, but rather a response to the fact that the position has become significantly larger than the risk tolerance. Depending on the market, the timing of profit-taking and the amount of adjustment will vary.
In the current analysis, MSTR has increased its holdings by buying more through convertible bonds for financing, with over 0.33 million BTC currently held, which is well over 1% of the total circulating Bitcoin supply, making it the number one publicly traded company. When converted at $0.09 million per 1 BTC, it is approximately $30 billion, and considering from MSTR's market capitalization, it is not hard to imagine that the Bitcoin price directly affects the stock price. A similar situation is observed with MARA, currently in second place, which has also announced plans to acquire Bitcoin using part of the funds from bond issuance.
On the other hand, in contrast to the rise in the value of bitcoin, MSTR's share price increase seems to have a relatively leveraged situation...
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With the US presidential election over and major Q3 earnings reports, including Big Tech, released, I took profits and repositioned stocks this week, compressing unrealized gains by approximately +10 million yen.
Notable realized gains were in NVDA, PLTR, CEG, AEM. Each of these capitalized on recent AI, energy, gold, and other hot topics, leading to substantial profits.
Although TSM had solid earnings, its stock price stagnated, prompting me to cut losses and liquidate all positions. I believe there are no major issues with future performance, but due to insufficient geopolitical risk assessment criteria such as Trump's policies regarding China, Russia, the Middle East, and security, I will monitor future policy developments.
Among my current positions, I am optimistic about the earnings and guidance of AI-related companies like AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, META. I have narrowed down my investment picks to NVDA and PLTR, while also realizing profits and adjusting positions for the remaining two investment picks. This trading strategy aims to adjust the slight bias in my portfolio...
Notable realized gains were in NVDA, PLTR, CEG, AEM. Each of these capitalized on recent AI, energy, gold, and other hot topics, leading to substantial profits.
Although TSM had solid earnings, its stock price stagnated, prompting me to cut losses and liquidate all positions. I believe there are no major issues with future performance, but due to insufficient geopolitical risk assessment criteria such as Trump's policies regarding China, Russia, the Middle East, and security, I will monitor future policy developments.
Among my current positions, I am optimistic about the earnings and guidance of AI-related companies like AMZN, GOOG, MSFT, META. I have narrowed down my investment picks to NVDA and PLTR, while also realizing profits and adjusting positions for the remaining two investment picks. This trading strategy aims to adjust the slight bias in my portfolio...
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The factors behind the increase in assets in the first half of the year were the strong stock market, particularly the rise in semiconductor-related stocks against the backdrop of investment in AI, and the depreciation of the yen, which progressed from 140 yen/dollar at the beginning of the year to 153 yen as of 7/29, were significant. In particular, NVDA, which made large profits in May and June, secured 80% of its holdings in July. Also, since July was moving in the direction of yen appreciation and dollar depreciation due to movements of the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve, Moomoo's account was negative on a yen basis, but it is positive in terms of the dollar trend of US stocks.
By sector, expectations for technology stocks have been high in recent months, and actual performance was good, so they reached the point where they accounted for 90% of temporary holdings, but in particular, the financial environment changed drastically in July, so stocks were replaced. The current investment ratio by sector is 30% for technology, 25% for healthcare, 15% for finance, 11% for energy, 5% for insurance, 2% for transportation, and 12% for crypto assets. Until now, crypto asset-related stocks have hardly been dabbled in, but there have been changes such as crypto asset ETFs being approved in the US market, and it is not possible to directly invest in IBIT etc. from Japan, so they are added to portfolios...
By sector, expectations for technology stocks have been high in recent months, and actual performance was good, so they reached the point where they accounted for 90% of temporary holdings, but in particular, the financial environment changed drastically in July, so stocks were replaced. The current investment ratio by sector is 30% for technology, 25% for healthcare, 15% for finance, 11% for energy, 5% for insurance, 2% for transportation, and 12% for crypto assets. Until now, crypto asset-related stocks have hardly been dabbled in, but there have been changes such as crypto asset ETFs being approved in the US market, and it is not possible to directly invest in IBIT etc. from Japan, so they are added to portfolios...
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Looking back on the first half of the year and future predictions ②
There was a loss of 25k dollars compared to profit of 116k dollars, which was a positive profit and loss of 90k dollars in the first half of the year. During this time, gains from stock price increases were about 70%, and yen base assets increased by about 15% from 140 yen/dollar to 160 yen/dollar as the depreciation of the yen depreciation and appreciation of the dollar progressed.
As for the financial environment at the beginning of the year, it was thought that the number of cuts in US interest rates was more factored in than the market as of 6/30, but in reality, interest rate cuts by the Fed were not carried out for half a year due to high inflation. Meanwhile, interest rates in Japan have not changed on a scale that has an impact on the market, and as a result, the depreciation of the yen and appreciation of the dollar by 15% did not have structural changes, so I think it is an appropriate level.
As for changes in stock prices, the S&P 500 was 15% higher and the Nikkei average was 18% higher, and it was also strong as a market average, but even when looking at the rising and falling stock lines, I think there was a huge difference in how good or bad things were between industries and companies. Among the 62 stocks I own, semiconductor-related stocks, starting with NVDA, performed extremely well, while BRK.B lost money. Nonetheless, by being able to determine profits and cut losses in a timely manner, the advantage of investing in individual stocks is that profits and losses can be controlled easily...
There was a loss of 25k dollars compared to profit of 116k dollars, which was a positive profit and loss of 90k dollars in the first half of the year. During this time, gains from stock price increases were about 70%, and yen base assets increased by about 15% from 140 yen/dollar to 160 yen/dollar as the depreciation of the yen depreciation and appreciation of the dollar progressed.
As for the financial environment at the beginning of the year, it was thought that the number of cuts in US interest rates was more factored in than the market as of 6/30, but in reality, interest rate cuts by the Fed were not carried out for half a year due to high inflation. Meanwhile, interest rates in Japan have not changed on a scale that has an impact on the market, and as a result, the depreciation of the yen and appreciation of the dollar by 15% did not have structural changes, so I think it is an appropriate level.
As for changes in stock prices, the S&P 500 was 15% higher and the Nikkei average was 18% higher, and it was also strong as a market average, but even when looking at the rising and falling stock lines, I think there was a huge difference in how good or bad things were between industries and companies. Among the 62 stocks I own, semiconductor-related stocks, starting with NVDA, performed extremely well, while BRK.B lost money. Nonetheless, by being able to determine profits and cut losses in a timely manner, the advantage of investing in individual stocks is that profits and losses can be controlled easily...
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Review of the first half of the year and future predictions
I'm frankly happy that we were able to leave a record above the market average in a very strong market. Since stocks have been replaced at a frequency of about once every 2 months from timely settlement and guidance, profit and loss were 85% positive.
First, as a result of investing in a wide range of industries in January, taking advantage of rising exchange rates between Japan and the US, an increase of almost the same level as the market was obtained. One of the major turning points was the brand swap that was carried out little by little in January, and we narrowed it down to 8 brands in the 3 industries of technology, insurance, and automobiles. As a result, we were able to greatly outperform the market from February to March. Meanwhile, there was a big decline in April, but even so, I think the reason they did not underperform above the market average is because they were narrowed down to stocks with good corporate performance. Furthermore, it was May-June that my results improved significantly. Since NVDA's very strong financial results and prospects were confirmed in May, risk was overwhelmingly low compared to other industries, and returns were increased, so the investment ratio was greatly increased. As a result, we were able to further increase our profit margin in the first half of the year.
As a forecast for the future, I believe that the current state of affairs and the financial environment will continue to appreciate the dollar and the rise in US interest rates for 1 to 2 months. business...
I'm frankly happy that we were able to leave a record above the market average in a very strong market. Since stocks have been replaced at a frequency of about once every 2 months from timely settlement and guidance, profit and loss were 85% positive.
First, as a result of investing in a wide range of industries in January, taking advantage of rising exchange rates between Japan and the US, an increase of almost the same level as the market was obtained. One of the major turning points was the brand swap that was carried out little by little in January, and we narrowed it down to 8 brands in the 3 industries of technology, insurance, and automobiles. As a result, we were able to greatly outperform the market from February to March. Meanwhile, there was a big decline in April, but even so, I think the reason they did not underperform above the market average is because they were narrowed down to stocks with good corporate performance. Furthermore, it was May-June that my results improved significantly. Since NVDA's very strong financial results and prospects were confirmed in May, risk was overwhelmingly low compared to other industries, and returns were increased, so the investment ratio was greatly increased. As a result, we were able to further increase our profit margin in the first half of the year.
As a forecast for the future, I believe that the current state of affairs and the financial environment will continue to appreciate the dollar and the rise in US interest rates for 1 to 2 months. business...
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In hindsight, it was crucial to maximize profits on 5/28 by not missing out on SMCI on 5/15 and NVDA on 5/23, taking profits on MSCI after NVDA earnings, and increasing NVDA buys. Reflecting on May, understanding the business and investing in good financial results has generated returns above the market average. Therefore, in June, I want to scrutinize market and company figures and momentum, hold excellent companies in appropriate proportions, and make timely profits, cut losses, and adjust the portfolio.
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さとこじ OP fujikenner : Thank you for your comment!
さとこじ OP 億り入 : Thank you for your comment. I love analysis, but my intuition is very dull, so I really admire people who can use abacus effortlessly. haha
さとこじ OP 麦マル : Thank you for your comment. Since the heating sentiment of MSTR has calmed down significantly before hitting the high of 540, considering the possibility of Bitcoin being adopted by the American reserve, choosing long-term hold as an option to avoid physical Bitcoin seems quite promising, considering that there are overlapping perspectives in relatively investment areas, I would be happy to have discussions, so thank you in advance!