1. Factors behind this USA stock market sharp decline
💡 The deterioration of short-term market sentiment is the main factor
The current decline is determined to be caused more by a temporary deterioration in sentiment rather than a collapse of fundamentals.
✅ There are three main factors: 1️⃣ Deterioration of economic Indicators → Sharp drop in the USA Consumer Confidence Index.
2️⃣ Concern about corporate performance → Caution before NVIDIA's earnings report, questions about the sustainability of the AI boom.
3️⃣ Policy risk → Possibility of trade tariffs and AI export regulations by the Trump administration.
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2. Analysis of Future Scenarios
📈 Bullish scenario (50% probability)
Although the USA economy is slowing down, it is still on a growth trajectory.
The Federal Reserve (USA Federal Reserve Board) will implement interest rate cuts by June → Stock prices will recover.
AI and high-tech stocks are being reassessed, leading to a rebound led by NASDAQ.
➡ Market dip buying has occurred, and a rebound began in mid-March.
➡ S&P 500 fluctuates in the range of 5000 to 5200 points.
📉 Bearish scenario (30% probability).
Deterioration in consumer sentiment spills over into the real economy → downward pressure on corporate performance.
The delay in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has led to high interest rates remaining.