With the Bank of Japan preparing for the monetary policy decision meeting on the 30th and 31st, new uncertainties have arisen. Following the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito falling below a majority in the Lower House election on the 27th, the political situation has become unclear, and the yen has depreciated The focus of the October meeting is whether there will be any signals regarding the third interest rate hike of the year at the next December meetingHow are you?
The Bank of Japan will announce the decision around noon on the 31st, and Governor Kuroda's press conference is scheduled for the afternoon. Given the significant uncertainties, including the U.S. presidential election on November 5, there is attention on what kind of message will be conveyed.
The likelihood of keeping interest rates unchanged at the October meeting.
At the previous September meeting, Governor Kuroda mentioned during the press conference the determination towards rate hikes, stating that there is "enough time". This was perceived as a shift toward a dovish stance by the market."There is some flexibility in timing"."It is important to carefully assess whether the U.S. economy will have a soft landing" and "The outlook has become clearer, therefore, an immediate rate hike is not foreseen." This suggests that the policy interest rate is likely to remain unchanged in October."I want to carefully assess whether the U.S. economy will land softly" and "The certainty of the outlook has increased, so it will not be an immediate rate hike."It is likely that the policy interest rate will remain unchanged in October as well, given the statements made.
Summarizing the content of President Ueda's press conference,1...

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