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The United States has finally entered an interest rate cut cycle. The interest rate cut was 0.5%.The "initial 0.5% rate cut" is the first since the IT bubble and the Lehman shock..
On September 18, when the Federal Reserve significantly lowered interest rates as expected by the market, the S&P 500 index rose 1% immediately after the announcement. However, towards the closing, selling pressure prevailed. This was because Chairman Powell stated that "50 basis points is not a new pace of rate cuts." Against the backdrop of recession concerns, investors hope for continued significant rate cuts. On the following day, September 19, the S&P 500 index rebounded by 1.7% and reached an all-time high. The expectation that the U.S. economy can avoid a recession and achieve a soft landing was dominant due to the "preventive rate cut" of 0.5%.
Based on the market trends over the past two days,currentlyHowever,the soft landing scenario is prevailingon the other hand,Persistent concerns about recession.It can be inferred that the recent employment statistics are weak, and the US economy experienced a recession (in 2001 and 2007) after the initial significant interest rate cut of 0.5% by the Federal Reserve.
On September 18, when the Federal Reserve significantly lowered interest rates as expected by the market, the S&P 500 index rose 1% immediately after the announcement. However, towards the closing, selling pressure prevailed. This was because Chairman Powell stated that "50 basis points is not a new pace of rate cuts." Against the backdrop of recession concerns, investors hope for continued significant rate cuts. On the following day, September 19, the S&P 500 index rebounded by 1.7% and reached an all-time high. The expectation that the U.S. economy can avoid a recession and achieve a soft landing was dominant due to the "preventive rate cut" of 0.5%.
Based on the market trends over the past two days,currentlyHowever,the soft landing scenario is prevailingon the other hand,Persistent concerns about recession.It can be inferred that the recent employment statistics are weak, and the US economy experienced a recession (in 2001 and 2007) after the initial significant interest rate cut of 0.5% by the Federal Reserve.
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This article is partially translated using auto-translation.
The Federal Reserve Board (FRB) is scheduled to hold the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on September 17-18.At 03:00 on Thursday of this week, Japan time.The FRB is scheduled to announce economic outlook, FOMC statement, policy interest rates, etc.Press conference scheduled for 03:30.It is scheduled to be conducted.
Chairman Powell stated at the Jackson Hole meeting on August 23rd that "the time for policy adjustments has come", and it is almost certain that a rate cut will be implemented at the FOMC in September.The focus is whether the rate cut will be 25 basis points or 50 basis points..
According to CME's FedWatch, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in the interest rate futures market on the 17th is 67%, which significantly exceeds the 33% probability of a 25 basis point cut.and accounts for 67%, significantly exceeding the 33% probability of a 25 basis point cut.
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25 basis points or 50 basis points?
The FRB usually cuts interest rates by 25 basis points. According to market consensus, if the authorities determine that the economy is at risk of sharp slowdown, there is a possibility of a precautionary reduction of 50 basis points.
According to Nick Timiraos, a Fed watcher, it is expected to start with a 25 basis point interest rate reduction...
The Federal Reserve Board (FRB) is scheduled to hold the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on September 17-18.At 03:00 on Thursday of this week, Japan time.The FRB is scheduled to announce economic outlook, FOMC statement, policy interest rates, etc.Press conference scheduled for 03:30.It is scheduled to be conducted.
Chairman Powell stated at the Jackson Hole meeting on August 23rd that "the time for policy adjustments has come", and it is almost certain that a rate cut will be implemented at the FOMC in September.The focus is whether the rate cut will be 25 basis points or 50 basis points..
According to CME's FedWatch, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in the interest rate futures market on the 17th is 67%, which significantly exceeds the 33% probability of a 25 basis point cut.and accounts for 67%, significantly exceeding the 33% probability of a 25 basis point cut.
The FRB usually cuts interest rates by 25 basis points. According to market consensus, if the authorities determine that the economy is at risk of sharp slowdown, there is a possibility of a precautionary reduction of 50 basis points.
According to Nick Timiraos, a Fed watcher, it is expected to start with a 25 basis point interest rate reduction...
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Columns 今日の動いた株、注目銘柄 - 8月20日(火)
moomooユーザーの皆様～おはようございます！前場の注目銘柄や最新のレーティング情報をお届けします。![]()
今日の強弱材料
8/20[強弱材料]
前場に注目すべき3つのポイント
●短期筋の買い戻しを誘う流れに
● $Ai Holdings (3076.JP)$、2024年6月期業績は、売上高が前期比7.4％増の498億1200万円、営業利益は同4.4％増の98億5300万円だった。
● $Sumitomo (8053.JP)$、銀農薬を国内販売、中米新興と独占契約
動いた株、注目銘柄
$Sumitomo Forestry (1911.JP)$が急騰。19日の米市場において住宅関連株が上昇。民主大統領候補に指名されたハリス副大統領が経済政策案を一部明らかにし、中間層への支援として若い世帯が最初に住宅を購入する際に税を優遇で支援するほか、頭金の補助などを盛り込んだ。
$SECOM (9735.JP)$が３日続伸、11月1日から法人向けセキュリティーサービスの契約料金を値上げすると発表。
$Astellas Pharma (4503.JP)$が反発。同社は、米フ...
今日の強弱材料
8/20[強弱材料]
前場に注目すべき3つのポイント
●短期筋の買い戻しを誘う流れに
● $Ai Holdings (3076.JP)$、2024年6月期業績は、売上高が前期比7.4％増の498億1200万円、営業利益は同4.4％増の98億5300万円だった。
● $Sumitomo (8053.JP)$、銀農薬を国内販売、中米新興と独占契約
動いた株、注目銘柄
$Sumitomo Forestry (1911.JP)$が急騰。19日の米市場において住宅関連株が上昇。民主大統領候補に指名されたハリス副大統領が経済政策案を一部明らかにし、中間層への支援として若い世帯が最初に住宅を購入する際に税を優遇で支援するほか、頭金の補助などを盛り込んだ。
$SECOM (9735.JP)$が３日続伸、11月1日から法人向けセキュリティーサービスの契約料金を値上げすると発表。
$Astellas Pharma (4503.JP)$が反発。同社は、米フ...
25
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US Vice President Harris of the Democratic Party has overtaken former President Trump, the Republican Party candidate in the competition for funds, and the difference in approval ratings has also narrowed.
Since announcing on the 21st that it would withdraw from the Biden presidential election campaign and support Mr. Harris as a successor candidate, the election campaign of US Vice President Harris posted on X that it “collected 200 million dollars (30.8 billion yen) of funds in 1 week, and 66% of it came from new donors.” Meanwhile, in early July, the Trump administration announced that the amount of funds raised for the second quarter was 0.3 billion31 million dollars.
Also, according to WSJ opinion polls, support ratios for Vice President Harris and former President Trump are substantially antagonistic, support for Mr. Harris is expanding among non-white voters, and enthusiasm for election campaigns by Democrats has also increased dramatically.
Harris and Trump have similar approval ratings = WSJ survey
City analyst Scott T. Cronart said, “If Harris is elected, there is a high possibility that he will take over the Biden administration's line in terms of policy,” and “on the other hand, there are also proposals that Mr. Harris has supported in recent years, such as an increase in government spending, corporate tax hikes, expansion of clean energy investment, and strengthening of AI regulations...
Since announcing on the 21st that it would withdraw from the Biden presidential election campaign and support Mr. Harris as a successor candidate, the election campaign of US Vice President Harris posted on X that it “collected 200 million dollars (30.8 billion yen) of funds in 1 week, and 66% of it came from new donors.” Meanwhile, in early July, the Trump administration announced that the amount of funds raised for the second quarter was 0.3 billion31 million dollars.
Also, according to WSJ opinion polls, support ratios for Vice President Harris and former President Trump are substantially antagonistic, support for Mr. Harris is expanding among non-white voters, and enthusiasm for election campaigns by Democrats has also increased dramatically.
Harris and Trump have similar approval ratings = WSJ survey
City analyst Scott T. Cronart said, “If Harris is elected, there is a high possibility that he will take over the Biden administration's line in terms of policy,” and “on the other hand, there are also proposals that Mr. Harris has supported in recent years, such as an increase in government spending, corporate tax hikes, expansion of clean energy investment, and strengthening of AI regulations...
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Good morning to all moomoo users! We will deliver notable stocks and the latest rating information from the front market.![]()
Today's strong and weak ingredients
6/21 [Strong material]
3 points to pay attention to in the front field
●Be aware of the strength of lower prices even when they have a take-profit advantage
● $Cybozu (4776.JP)$The revised earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending 2024/12 was announced. Sales were revised upward from 28.730 billion yen to 29.545 billion yen, and operating profit was revised upward from 3,097 billion yen to 4.117 billion yen. On the profit side, the main factor is that expenses that are not expended by the end of the year have accumulated in terms of labor costs, etc.
●Featured materials from the front floor: $Sumitomo (8053.JP)$Acquired a Romanian company and sold fertilizers with low environmental impact
Stocks that have moved, notable stocks
$Advantest (6857.JP)$、 $Disco (6146.JP)$US semiconductor-related stocks, starting with NVIDIA, which are cheap, are weak.
$Central Glass (4044.JP)$has risen, and it is reported that they have developed a new manufacturing method for “silicon carbide (SiC)” substrates, which is an advanced material for power semiconductors...
Today's strong and weak ingredients
6/21 [Strong material]
3 points to pay attention to in the front field
●Be aware of the strength of lower prices even when they have a take-profit advantage
● $Cybozu (4776.JP)$The revised earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending 2024/12 was announced. Sales were revised upward from 28.730 billion yen to 29.545 billion yen, and operating profit was revised upward from 3,097 billion yen to 4.117 billion yen. On the profit side, the main factor is that expenses that are not expended by the end of the year have accumulated in terms of labor costs, etc.
●Featured materials from the front floor: $Sumitomo (8053.JP)$Acquired a Romanian company and sold fertilizers with low environmental impact
Stocks that have moved, notable stocks
$Advantest (6857.JP)$、 $Disco (6146.JP)$US semiconductor-related stocks, starting with NVIDIA, which are cheap, are weak.
$Central Glass (4044.JP)$has risen, and it is reported that they have developed a new manufacturing method for “silicon carbide (SiC)” substrates, which is an advanced material for power semiconductors...
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Good morning to all moomoo users! We will deliver notable stocks and the latest rating information from the front market.![]()
Today's strong and weak ingredients
6/13 [Strong and Weak Materials]
3 points to pay attention to in the front field
●Interest is drawn to high-value high-tech stocks
● $Tomoe Engineering (6309.JP)$2Q operating profit increased 43.4% to 2,958 billion yen. Sales increased in both the machine manufacturing and sales business and the chemical industry product sales business. On the profit side, profit increased against the backdrop of sales growth in both businesses.
●Featured materials from the front floor: $Denso (6902.JP)$, skill standardization for software human resources, SDV support with a system that transcends the industry
Stocks that have moved, notable stocks
$Tokyo Electron (8035.JP)$、 $Advantest (6857.JP)$、 $Renesas Electronics (6723.JP)$Semiconductor-related issues rose across the board, etc., and the SOX index was drastically high and the highest value was updated
$CRE (3458.JP)$has skyrocketed. 24.7 period 3...
Today's strong and weak ingredients
6/13 [Strong and Weak Materials]
3 points to pay attention to in the front field
●Interest is drawn to high-value high-tech stocks
● $Tomoe Engineering (6309.JP)$2Q operating profit increased 43.4% to 2,958 billion yen. Sales increased in both the machine manufacturing and sales business and the chemical industry product sales business. On the profit side, profit increased against the backdrop of sales growth in both businesses.
●Featured materials from the front floor: $Denso (6902.JP)$, skill standardization for software human resources, SDV support with a system that transcends the industry
Stocks that have moved, notable stocks
$Tokyo Electron (8035.JP)$、 $Advantest (6857.JP)$、 $Renesas Electronics (6723.JP)$Semiconductor-related issues rose across the board, etc., and the SOX index was drastically high and the highest value was updated
$CRE (3458.JP)$has skyrocketed. 24.7 period 3...
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