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Let's make predictions about the next FOMC. In conclusion, I think the same policy as before will continue. In other words, if inflation subsides or concerns about a recession increase, interest rate cuts are considered.
I don't think there is any clear mention of interest rate cuts in September. There may be statements that it will be made as needed, but it probably does not guarantee the interest rate cuts expected by the market. There is a possibility that this will be perceived negatively by the market, which is expecting interest rate cuts into account.
As for future prospects, since the Fed is too cautious about interest rate cuts, I think there is a high risk that interest rate cuts will take a backseat. This means a scenario where interest rates are cut in a hurry when indicators indicating a recession come out.
Also, it is questionable whether interest rate cuts will actually take place in September. If interest rate cuts are postponed, the ongoing sector rotation (inflow of funds from large stocks to small cap stocks) will be wasted, and there is a possibility that panic will occur throughout the market.
I don't think there is any clear mention of interest rate cuts in September. There may be statements that it will be made as needed, but it probably does not guarantee the interest rate cuts expected by the market. There is a possibility that this will be perceived negatively by the market, which is expecting interest rate cuts into account.
As for future prospects, since the Fed is too cautious about interest rate cuts, I think there is a high risk that interest rate cuts will take a backseat. This means a scenario where interest rates are cut in a hurry when indicators indicating a recession come out.
Also, it is questionable whether interest rate cuts will actually take place in September. If interest rate cuts are postponed, the ongoing sector rotation (inflow of funds from large stocks to small cap stocks) will be wasted, and there is a possibility that panic will occur throughout the market.
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If Mr. Trump hadn't said anything superfluous, it would have exploded by now...
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![Taiwanese...](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/183602612/20240719/0c48180887177c407dc71c12d594f273.jpg/thumb?area=105&is_public=true)
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$Taiwan Semiconductor(TSM.US$
TSMC “I got 80 points
」
Market price “Of course I will sell
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TSMC “I did my best and got 100 points
」
Market price “No good, I'll sell it
」
TSMC “I got 150 points
」
Market price “Of course it's selling
」
TSMC “Um, when are you going to buy it for me??
」
Market price “You're in Taiwan, so no matter how good your performance is, I won't buy it
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TSMC “That Killing
」
stupid?
TSMC “I got 80 points
Market price “Of course I will sell
TSMC “I did my best and got 100 points
Market price “No good, I'll sell it
TSMC “I got 150 points
Market price “Of course it's selling
TSMC “Um, when are you going to buy it for me??
Market price “You're in Taiwan, so no matter how good your performance is, I won't buy it
TSMC “That Killing
stupid?
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Thank you very much. I can't thank you enough. Isn't NASDAQ100 starting up now
I'm watching closely.
Looking back, the rapid rise right after the US CPI announcement was probably due to expectations for interest rate cuts, and the sharp drop that came next should be disappointment and fear about the economic recession. But as time goes by, human psychology dissolves, so now we're in a state of waiting![]()
Thank you very much. Good luck NASDAQ100
Looking back, the rapid rise right after the US CPI announcement was probably due to expectations for interest rate cuts, and the sharp drop that came next should be disappointment and fear about the economic recession. But as time goes by, human psychology dissolves, so now we're in a state of waiting
Thank you very much. Good luck NASDAQ100
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$NVIDIA(NVDA.US$ Plastic rotation! Come on, go!
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$NVIDIA(NVDA.US$
That's because it was when Japanese people fell asleep
That's because it was when Japanese people fell asleep
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$U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield(US10Y.BD$
Manufacturing ISM was lower than expected and the previous fiscal year, but for some reason interest rates are reluctant to drop.
I have a feeling that there is a bias in the market that is intended to make the dollar stronger.
Manufacturing ISM was lower than expected and the previous fiscal year, but for some reason interest rates are reluctant to drop.
I have a feeling that there is a bias in the market that is intended to make the dollar stronger.
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$NVIDIA(NVDA.US$
What kind of drop is this? Tell me
What kind of drop is this? Tell me
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$NVIDIA(NVDA.US$
What kind of drop?
What kind of drop?
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