Accuracy rate of 100% for predicting the USA economic recessionのSarm economic recession indicator(※, 'same rules' indicator)Decreased from 0.57 in August to 0.50 in September.September's data released on October 4thimproved to 4.1% due toThis improvement.Ease worries about economic downturnOctober 4th saw a risk-on sentiment with rising stock and falling bond prices. Notably,The rise of semiconductor stocks that had been lagging behind was prominent.。
(※The Sam Recession Indicator was devised by Mr. Sam, a former economist at the FRB, and is known as the "Sam Rule". If the 3-month moving average of the unemployment rate exceeds the minimum of the 3-month moving average of the past 12 months by 0.50 percentage points, it suggests an entry into a recession. The past accuracy rate of predicting recessions was 100%. It is noteworthy that the announcement of the US unemployment rate is made on the first Friday of every month.)
「Sam Rule Indicator and SOX Index
When checking the year-to-date movements of the Conference Board Leading Economic Index and the SOX Index (Philadelphia Semiconductor Stock Index), it can be observed that since the Conference Board Leading Economic Index first exceeded 0.4 in June this year, the SOX Index has adjusted. There is caution about reaching 0.50 the following month (caution for the onset of an economic downturn) for semiconductor stocks...