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In the FOMC (June) agenda summary, discussions aimed at reducing (tapering) quantitative easing began, but while the conditions for policy changes were not yet in place, many participants decided that two additional interest rate hikes by the end of the year would be appropriate. The painful content is that they want to stop raising interest rates while continuing to raise interest rates. This does not mean that the terminal rate can be clearly stated.
The major country that has not stopped raising interest rates is the United Kingdom. The interest rate increase range was expanded from the previous 25 bp to 50 bp in June, but that is not enough. The inflation rate for the latest May was 8.7% overall. The core is 7.1%, and the policy interest rate for inflation that does not fall is too low. The market assumes a terminal rate of 6%, which is still too low. There is no choice but to expect up to 7%. At the British monetary policy meeting on 8/3, interest rate hikes of 75 bp, rather than 50 bp, are possible. The pound will become even stronger, and considering future increases in mortgage interest rates linked to fixed interest rates for 2 and 5 years, a crash in the housing market is inevitable. Compared to other countries, it has an inflationary element of Brexit, so the possibility of a hard landing is high...