トラさん【投資家】
reacted to
トラさん【投資家】
liked
2023年には史上最大の住宅バブルが到来する。
インフレ調整後の住宅価格は、130 年間の平均と比較して 85% 過大評価されています。
他に過大評価に近づいたのは 2006 年だけです。
そして次に何が起こったのかは誰もが知っています。
インフレ調整後の住宅価格は、130 年間の平均と比較して 85% 過大評価されています。
他に過大評価に近づいたのは 2006 年だけです。
そして次に何が起こったのかは誰もが知っています。
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トラさん【投資家】
liked
Nearly every hard landing initially looks like a soft landing
What is preventing a soft landing:
- The Fed has stayed at a high level for too long
- Overheated economy
- Increased crude oil prices
- Financial Market Collapse
“Planes land, but the economy doesn't.”
What is preventing a soft landing:
- The Fed has stayed at a high level for too long
- Overheated economy
- Increased crude oil prices
- Financial Market Collapse
“Planes land, but the economy doesn't.”
Translated
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トラさん【投資家】
liked
Despite the steady trend in US GDP (gross domestic product), US GDI (gross domestic income) has been negative for 18 consecutive months, and there is an extreme divergence. The divergence rate is at the same level as during the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the collapse of the IT bubble.
(Quote: RIA)
(Quote: RIA)
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トラさん【投資家】
liked
世界全体のGDPに占める輸入金額の割合は、2007年(リーマンショック前)の米国で3.2%。2022年の中国で2.7%。仮に中国経済がいわゆる「日本化」していくのであれば、世界経済への負の影響が大きくなると考えるのが自然。
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トラさん【投資家】
reacted to
Do you own AAPL individually?
It is such a trusted brand that it accounts for half of Buffett's portfolio.
Since the beginning of 2023, I have been drawing an upward trend (yellow line) in an easy-to-understand manner.
However, the trend line has been greatly interrupted by the recent decline.
(*Continued with YouTube membership)
It is such a trusted brand that it accounts for half of Buffett's portfolio.
Since the beginning of 2023, I have been drawing an upward trend (yellow line) in an easy-to-understand manner.
However, the trend line has been greatly interrupted by the recent decline.
(*Continued with YouTube membership)
Translated
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トラさん【投資家】
reacted to
(Image) shows a comprehensive chart of the past 10 years and the year before the presidential election.
As a trend, it plummeted in August and is rising towards the end of the year.
I sometimes invest by referring to so-called “anomalies” like this,
I thought the “anomaly” would not surpass the business cycle in the current bear market.
However, the scattered policies of each state (to get votes) that have been carried out peacefully even while fighting inflation
Looking at it, I also think that the “anomaly” of the year before the presidential election cannot be taken lightly.
(*More on YouTube membership)
As a trend, it plummeted in August and is rising towards the end of the year.
I sometimes invest by referring to so-called “anomalies” like this,
I thought the “anomaly” would not surpass the business cycle in the current bear market.
However, the scattered policies of each state (to get votes) that have been carried out peacefully even while fighting inflation
Looking at it, I also think that the “anomaly” of the year before the presidential election cannot be taken lightly.
(*More on YouTube membership)
Translated
8
トラさん【投資家】
reacted to
[Attention bond investors]
Renowned investor Bill Ackman,
With a risk premium of 2% due to deteriorating fiscal balance,
Assuming a high and persistent inflation rate of 3%,
The potential growth rate in the USA is 0.5%.
Based on the above total, it is forecasted that the 30-year interest rate will rise to 5.5%.
I am taking a short position (a position that profits when bond prices fall).
It is just a prediction, but it is a fact that the 30-year interest rate has been rising rapidly recently.
Continue with YouTube membership 🐯
Renowned investor Bill Ackman,
With a risk premium of 2% due to deteriorating fiscal balance,
Assuming a high and persistent inflation rate of 3%,
The potential growth rate in the USA is 0.5%.
Based on the above total, it is forecasted that the 30-year interest rate will rise to 5.5%.
I am taking a short position (a position that profits when bond prices fall).
It is just a prediction, but it is a fact that the 30-year interest rate has been rising rapidly recently.
Continue with YouTube membership 🐯
Translated
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トラさん【投資家】
reacted to
I read a dangerous article in the Nikkei Shimbun.
No one stops posting such low-level articles to the public.
Is there love there?
I'll make a video. Stay tuned
No one stops posting such low-level articles to the public.
Is there love there?
I'll make a video. Stay tuned
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