Dark clouds over the future of the USA stock market; the profit outlook for USA companies is deteriorating - management is Bearish.February 16, 2025, 17:50 JST.
The number of companies presenting forecasts that fall below Analyst Financial Estimates is increasing.
The Stocks of companies that have revised their profit and revenue guidance upwards are performing well.
The earnings season for the fourth quarter of 2024 was strong, but beneath the surface, concerning situations are emerging that may cast a shadow on the Bullish sentiment regarding USA Stocks. The profit outlook for USA companies is deteriorating.
Among the companies that announced their outlook for the next quarter, more companies presented forecasts that fell below the estimates of Analysts. According to data compiled by Bloomberg Intelligence (BI), the forecasts of various companies have dropped to their lowest level since 2016 compared to Analyst estimates this month. Currently, the outlook remains at a one-year low.
There are many reasons for the worsening outlook. A full-blown trade war is likely to weigh heavily on the export demand and overseas profits of multinational corporations. Domestically, inflation remains high, and the USA Federal Reserve shows no signs of rushing to lower interest rates.
"The uncertainty that has existed since the beginning of this year is troubling..."

US draft rejecting Ukraine's rare earth minerals demand - President Zelensky.February 16, 2025 14:58 JST.
The USA is trying to secure 50% of license sales and QITABANKUAI revenue.
The Ukrainian side proposed changes to the content that would benefit both parties.
Ukrainian President Zelensky rejected the USA's draft agreement to gain access to Ukraine's rare earth minerals as part of a partnership agreement. This is because investment and sufficient protection have not been provided.
On the 15th, Mr. Zelensky told reporters at the Munich Security Conference about the USA's proposal that "it does not protect our interests." He asserted that the agreement must be tied to "security guarantees and investments."
The draft proposal presented by the USA side is said to "not be in the interest of the sovereign state of Ukraine." Negotiations are ongoing.
On the 12th, U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent presented the agreement proposal to Mr. Zelensky during his visit to Kyiv. The Secretary stated that this agreement is necessary for continued support from the Trump administration, and Mr. Zelensky responded that he would consider it.
The USA is trying to secure 50% of the revenue from licensing sales and QITABANKUAI.

$SoundHound AI (SOUN.US)$
Good evening meow~n
It has fallen to 10.40.In the worst case, the estimate is a drop to 10.42/10.12.
Before the Friday opening. @coco0217 It happened as I wrote in the comments section.I'm not happy that the worst case scenario came true.
Even after re-analysis, a discrepancy of 10.30 (161.8) is within expected limits.
What concerns me at this point is 9.77.Will there be an upward trend due to a bounce in the correction pattern?Or will it fall below 9.77?
Wave 5 is complete at 9.77, but the key point is whether a rising pattern will form at Wave 3.
Maybe I'll observe it at the micro level on Tuesday.
Well then, goodbye.

$C3.ai (AI.US)$
Good evening meow~n
If considering the A-B formation, it might be a wave C rally in the ABC pattern～Or it could be wave 4～
From the convergence point, 32.23 (32.21) is the key point.
The extension target at 100.0%/161.8% and the wave 4 Support are at 32.02 and 32.23, aligning with 38.2%/50%, preparing for a rally formation.
To negate the current downward pressure, it is necessary to hold and break 32.23.
Well then, goodbye.

Novo Nordisk A S Spons Adr is expected to see significant revenue growth this year – the performance of "Ozempic" continues to be strong.February 5, 2025, 19:20 JST.
This year's revenue growth rate is expected to be between 16% and 24%, with an operating profit increase estimated at up to 27%.
The financial results for October to December last year also exceeded expectations, and the stock price surged by as much as 6.3% at one point.
The Danish Drug Manufacturers, Novo Nordisk A S Spons Adr, expect a significant increase in revenue this year, driven by the expansion of supply for its main diabetes treatments, "Ozempic" and weight loss drug "Wegovy."
According to the company's announcement on the 5th, excluding the impact of exchange rate fluctuations, a revenue increase of 16-24% is anticipated this year. Last year saw a 26% revenue increase. Following this forecast and the better-than-expected financial results for the fourth quarter of last year (October-December), the stock price in the Copenhagen market surged by as much as 6.3%.
In October-December of last year, revenue reached 85.7 billion Danish kroner (approximately 1 trillion 830 billion yen), exceeding Analyst expectations, with Ozempic and Wegovy also growing as predicted. This year's operating profit, excluding the impact of exchange rate fluctuations, is expected to increase by up to 27%, outpacing revenue growth.
In recent months, Novo has continuously faced competition from Eli Lilly and Co.

The EU is set to retaliate against Trump's tariffs, and avoiding a trade war is desirable - German Chancellor Scholz.February 16, 2025 14:20 JST (excerpt)
The EU has enough strength to counter the threats of U.S. tariffs.
A warning against excluding Europe from peace talks regarding Ukraine.
German Chancellor Scholz stated that the European Union (EU) has the strength to counter the tariff threats from the USA, but it is preferable to avoid a trade war through negotiated agreements.
President Trump has stated his intention to impose tariffs on Autos, Iron & Steel, and Aluminum in the coming weeks.
Mr. Scholz, in an interview with Bloomberg Television on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference on the 15th, said, 'The EU has enough power to counter anything that negatively impacts the European economy.' He added, 'However, responses should always leave open the possibility of agreement, as that is better for all parties involved, especially for the USA and Europe.'

$Astera Labs (ALAB.US)$ ❤️
$Finance of America (FOA.US)$ 🇺🇸
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$Rigetti Computing (RGTI.US)$
Hello meow
Currently, at least 11.33 needs to be maintained, and if it falls below the swing low of 10.65, look for 10.34/9.59(9.63).If it falls below 9.59, please refer to the following Candlestick chart 👇.
Currently, the minimum is to break through 12.38 and hold & break at 12.91.
The level that negates the current downward pressure is 15.17, but since it is a bit of a high hurdle, it is better to maintain above 13.44 (13.46) if possible.
See you later.Goodbye.

$Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF (SOXL.US)$
Hello.
At this point, it feels like the pattern has changed, perhaps transitioning to ABC.It feels that way, but what is concerning is 141.14.
It seems likely that there will be a correction pattern before the financial results on the 26th, followed by a 📈🚀🚀🚀.
On the 18th, it will break through the swing high of 139.20 and retest 141.14 to see if it can突破.Will it be rebounded?Or will it become an ABC pattern like this..
Currently, as long as it stays above 135, it is safe.
Looking forward to the financial results, nya~It’s exciting, nya~
See you later.Goodbye.