In this report, I have picked out about five hot stocks. When it comes to introducing hot stocks in a report, the approach often involves predicting future performance based on the company's business activities, and explaining. In my case, I differ slightly from the typical individual investor and select stocks by checking what is referred to as factors. Factors are essentially the factors that move stock prices. Some familiar ones include pe and pb.The size of the pe and pb values represent whether stocks are overvalued or undervalued, becoming factors that affect stock prices.There are various other factors as well. The JPX 400, for example, can be considered a factor index that uses ROE. Since around 2010, the term Smart Beta has been heard in fund management using factors. The GPIF (Government Pension Investment Fund), also known as the Whale, uses precisely the Smart Beta approach, which seems to be quite popular among institutional investors as an effective investment method. However, using factors fundamentally involves a quantitative technique that leverages financial engineering, making it quite challenging for individual investors...
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Nuclear fusion
Recently, there have been many opportunities to discuss 'nuclear fusion' in the news. In August, the government embarked on revising the national strategy in order to bring forward the realization of nuclear fusion power generation as a next-generation energy source.
On August 20, the expert meeting on nuclear fusion strategy at the Cabinet Office resumed, with plans to develop a new strategy within the fiscal year. There are increasing plans for nuclear fusion power generation overseas. While the current strategy sets the realization timeframe for nuclear fusion power generation around 2050, it is possible to aim for demonstration in the 2030s if the development competition intensifies among major countries. Nuclear fusion is a technology that generates vast energy by fusing atomic nuclei to produce electricity. Thus, the focus will be on upcoming companies.
$Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011.JP)$ For the purpose of realizing a fusion reactor that uses nuclear fusion reactions for power generation, the construction of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) is underway in France by the seven major countries (Japan, European Union, Russia, USA, China, South Korea, India) for fusion experiments. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries is participating in this ITER project and is responsible for manufacturing the equipment that will make up the core of ITER. In July, they partnered with the National Institutes for Quantum and Radiological Science and Technology for the components used in ITER...
Recently, there have been many opportunities to discuss 'nuclear fusion' in the news. In August, the government embarked on revising the national strategy in order to bring forward the realization of nuclear fusion power generation as a next-generation energy source.
On August 20, the expert meeting on nuclear fusion strategy at the Cabinet Office resumed, with plans to develop a new strategy within the fiscal year. There are increasing plans for nuclear fusion power generation overseas. While the current strategy sets the realization timeframe for nuclear fusion power generation around 2050, it is possible to aim for demonstration in the 2030s if the development competition intensifies among major countries. Nuclear fusion is a technology that generates vast energy by fusing atomic nuclei to produce electricity. Thus, the focus will be on upcoming companies.
$Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011.JP)$ For the purpose of realizing a fusion reactor that uses nuclear fusion reactions for power generation, the construction of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) is underway in France by the seven major countries (Japan, European Union, Russia, USA, China, South Korea, India) for fusion experiments. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries is participating in this ITER project and is responsible for manufacturing the equipment that will make up the core of ITER. In July, they partnered with the National Institutes for Quantum and Radiological Science and Technology for the components used in ITER...
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The TSE Growth 250 Index (formerly the Mothers Index) has been negative for three consecutive years until the previous year. Since the calculation of the index began in 2003, there has been one instance of three consecutive years of negatives, but there has not been four consecutive years yet.By the way, $Nikkei 225 (.N225.JP)$ $TOPIX (.TOPIX.JP)$ Even so, the longest period in the past was three consecutive years of negatives.Will the TSE Growth 250 Index create a "four consecutive years of negatives" and make it a dark history this year? Or, can it turn things around from here?
The annual negatives of the TSE Growth 250 Index began in 2021. In that year, the market strongly realized the significant increase in the US CPI (Consumer Price Index) and the anticipation of the earlier start of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.The first rate hike in 3 years and 3 months was decided at the March 2022 FOMC, but small and mid cap growth stocks fell in line with the rise in US interest rates.Due to the rise in interest rates, the capital cost increases, so the valuation adjustment of overvalued stocks with high expected PER and PBR makes sense.
However, regardless of such reasoning, there were growth stocks that sharply rose during this period. Among them are AI-related stocks, including semiconductors in Japan.
The annual negatives of the TSE Growth 250 Index began in 2021. In that year, the market strongly realized the significant increase in the US CPI (Consumer Price Index) and the anticipation of the earlier start of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.The first rate hike in 3 years and 3 months was decided at the March 2022 FOMC, but small and mid cap growth stocks fell in line with the rise in US interest rates.Due to the rise in interest rates, the capital cost increases, so the valuation adjustment of overvalued stocks with high expected PER and PBR makes sense.
However, regardless of such reasoning, there were growth stocks that sharply rose during this period. Among them are AI-related stocks, including semiconductors in Japan.
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$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$After achieving tremendous success, it is also important to take a break!
Stanley Druckenmiller, a wealthy and renowned investor, is famous for managing funds under George Soros for over 10 years. In the well-known "Pound Crisis," Soros believed that the pound was overvalued in the foreign exchange market, sold large amounts of pounds, waited for the pound to depreciate, and then bought back pounds at a lower price, executing trades that earned him the nickname "The man who broke the Bank of England."
As a result of this massive pound collapse,Quantum Fund, led by Quantum Corp., made a profit of 1 to 2 billion dollars.It is said that this strategy was advised to Mr. Soros by Stanley Druckenmiller, who was then the operational manager of Mr. Soros's fund. Druckenmiller's presence was behind Mr. Soros's significant profit from selling pounds.
Mr. Druckenmiller is currently managing the operations of the Duquesne Family Office, a family office. On August 14, Duquesne announced that it was selling rights etc.
Stanley Druckenmiller, a wealthy and renowned investor, is famous for managing funds under George Soros for over 10 years. In the well-known "Pound Crisis," Soros believed that the pound was overvalued in the foreign exchange market, sold large amounts of pounds, waited for the pound to depreciate, and then bought back pounds at a lower price, executing trades that earned him the nickname "The man who broke the Bank of England."
As a result of this massive pound collapse,Quantum Fund, led by Quantum Corp., made a profit of 1 to 2 billion dollars.It is said that this strategy was advised to Mr. Soros by Stanley Druckenmiller, who was then the operational manager of Mr. Soros's fund. Druckenmiller's presence was behind Mr. Soros's significant profit from selling pounds.
Mr. Druckenmiller is currently managing the operations of the Duquesne Family Office, a family office. On August 14, Duquesne announced that it was selling rights etc.
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The stock market has experienced heavy rain, then clear skies, and then cloudy with occasional rain. In early August, the stock market was hit by a fierce "summer storm" (Bank of Japan and Ueda shock). It is called the "Reiwa Black Monday," but that's not accurate.
However, it has since rebounded strongly. The Nikkei Average (on market basis) hit a low of 0.03 million 1156 yen on August 5. The decline from the all-time high of 0.04 million 2426 yen on July 11 was 0.01 million 1270 yen, a decrease of 26.6%. It's quite a drop.
In terms of the charts, it completely collapsed. A large lower shadow formed. Surprisingly, it rose to 0.03 million 8408 yen on August 22. The increase was 7252 yen, a rise of 23.5%. It has recovered 64.3% of the decline. The rebound is fast. Some market participants are even saying that the next step is a full recovery.
A fierce rebound. Firstly, this is due to the unwinding of the yen carry trade caused by the interest rate hike and the systematic trading strategy... etc.
However, it has since rebounded strongly. The Nikkei Average (on market basis) hit a low of 0.03 million 1156 yen on August 5. The decline from the all-time high of 0.04 million 2426 yen on July 11 was 0.01 million 1270 yen, a decrease of 26.6%. It's quite a drop.
In terms of the charts, it completely collapsed. A large lower shadow formed. Surprisingly, it rose to 0.03 million 8408 yen on August 22. The increase was 7252 yen, a rise of 23.5%. It has recovered 64.3% of the decline. The rebound is fast. Some market participants are even saying that the next step is a full recovery.
A fierce rebound. Firstly, this is due to the unwinding of the yen carry trade caused by the interest rate hike and the systematic trading strategy... etc.
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Looking back on last week
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda's statement took precedence over a sense of security
Last week's $Nikkei 225 (.N225.JP)$ It rose 301.60 yen (+ 0.79%) to 38364.27 yen per week. The rise in emerging markets was conspicuous, with the growth market index +4.63% and the growth market 250 index +5.16%. The Nikkei Average, which recovered to the 38,000 yen level, returned to the level since 8/1 before the crash, but sales declined, as trading prices on the Prime Market fell below the 4 trillion yen level. Since the volume in the 38,000 yen range was overwhelmingly high in terms of trading volume by investment price, the upper value of the Nikkei Average became heavy. In the closing review of Bank of Japan Governor Ueda on the 23rd, which the market was paying attention to, it was stated that “the financial market will continue to be in an unstable situation” and “for the time being, we will closely monitor that trend with an extremely high sense of tension,” and since it was explained that “there is no difference (with Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida's monetary policy ideas),” a sense of security prevails in both the exchange market and the stock market. The Nikkei Average closed at 38300 yen over the weekend.
This week's outlook
There is also a possibility that the Nikkei Average will break through the 75-day line on the 29th
US time 28th (Tokyo time before dawn on 29th), major semiconductor companies $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ The fiscal year 24-5 to 7 of...
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda's statement took precedence over a sense of security
Last week's $Nikkei 225 (.N225.JP)$ It rose 301.60 yen (+ 0.79%) to 38364.27 yen per week. The rise in emerging markets was conspicuous, with the growth market index +4.63% and the growth market 250 index +5.16%. The Nikkei Average, which recovered to the 38,000 yen level, returned to the level since 8/1 before the crash, but sales declined, as trading prices on the Prime Market fell below the 4 trillion yen level. Since the volume in the 38,000 yen range was overwhelmingly high in terms of trading volume by investment price, the upper value of the Nikkei Average became heavy. In the closing review of Bank of Japan Governor Ueda on the 23rd, which the market was paying attention to, it was stated that “the financial market will continue to be in an unstable situation” and “for the time being, we will closely monitor that trend with an extremely high sense of tension,” and since it was explained that “there is no difference (with Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Uchida's monetary policy ideas),” a sense of security prevails in both the exchange market and the stock market. The Nikkei Average closed at 38300 yen over the weekend.
This week's outlook
There is also a possibility that the Nikkei Average will break through the 75-day line on the 29th
US time 28th (Tokyo time before dawn on 29th), major semiconductor companies $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ The fiscal year 24-5 to 7 of...
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The stock price crash of August 2024 will remain in the memories of investors. It was a historic event. No, even so, the market was terrible, too bad. It's oversold.
The Nikkei Stock Average fell by 4451 yen (12.4%) on 8/5, and the decline surpassed 3836 yen during Black Monday on 1987/10/20 and recorded the largest in history, and the rate of decline became second in history after 14.9% on Black Monday. It is said that many investors have blown away the profits of the past few years.
This crash was due to a combination of factors such as the Bank of Japan's sudden interest rate hike (0.25%), the attendant appreciation of the yen, the occurrence of a yen carry trade (75% of 500 billion dollars was rewound at once), concerns about a recession in the American economy, the collapse of IT companies' stock prices, and the tense situation in the Middle East (geopolitical risk).
However, he said, “There is no doubt that the main culprit is the Bank of Japan. In fact, the Bank of Japan is working hard to counteract the hawkish stance of Bank of Japan Governor Ueda by “maintaining current monetary easing under a situation where global financial markets are showing rapid fluctuations” (Deputy Governor Uchida). These are the 3 parties (Ministry of Finance, money...
The Nikkei Stock Average fell by 4451 yen (12.4%) on 8/5, and the decline surpassed 3836 yen during Black Monday on 1987/10/20 and recorded the largest in history, and the rate of decline became second in history after 14.9% on Black Monday. It is said that many investors have blown away the profits of the past few years.
This crash was due to a combination of factors such as the Bank of Japan's sudden interest rate hike (0.25%), the attendant appreciation of the yen, the occurrence of a yen carry trade (75% of 500 billion dollars was rewound at once), concerns about a recession in the American economy, the collapse of IT companies' stock prices, and the tense situation in the Middle East (geopolitical risk).
However, he said, “There is no doubt that the main culprit is the Bank of Japan. In fact, the Bank of Japan is working hard to counteract the hawkish stance of Bank of Japan Governor Ueda by “maintaining current monetary easing under a situation where global financial markets are showing rapid fluctuations” (Deputy Governor Uchida). These are the 3 parties (Ministry of Finance, money...
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Looking back on last week
“Rough price movements continue in a historic market crash”
Last week's $Nikkei 225 (.N225.JP)$ It fell 884.70 yen (-2.46%) to 35025.00 yen during the week. The biggest decline ever of 4451.28 yen was recorded on the 5th, exceeding the decline of 3846.48 yen the day after Black Monday on 1987/10/20. On the following day, the 6th, it was a historic price movement, with the biggest increase ever recorded of 3217.04 yen.
In the Tokyo market on the 5th, in response to the drastic decline in US stocks and the rapid appreciation of the yen in exchange rates, many large stocks such as high-tech stocks started selling, and the decline in the Nikkei Average widened all at once. In the futures market, Nikkei average futures, $TOPIX (.TOPIX.JP)$ 、 $TSE Growth Market 250 Index (.TSEMOTHR.JP)$ Circuit breakers were activated one after another, and dumping of spot stocks involved in margin trading accelerated. The exchange rate also became a historic crash due to the rapid rise of yen to 141 yen per dollar. The next day, a reaction against the crash took precedence, and there was a sudden backlash. On the 7th, Bank of Japan Vice Governor Uchida Shinichi said, “The financial market is in an unstable situation...
“Rough price movements continue in a historic market crash”
Last week's $Nikkei 225 (.N225.JP)$ It fell 884.70 yen (-2.46%) to 35025.00 yen during the week. The biggest decline ever of 4451.28 yen was recorded on the 5th, exceeding the decline of 3846.48 yen the day after Black Monday on 1987/10/20. On the following day, the 6th, it was a historic price movement, with the biggest increase ever recorded of 3217.04 yen.
In the Tokyo market on the 5th, in response to the drastic decline in US stocks and the rapid appreciation of the yen in exchange rates, many large stocks such as high-tech stocks started selling, and the decline in the Nikkei Average widened all at once. In the futures market, Nikkei average futures, $TOPIX (.TOPIX.JP)$ 、 $TSE Growth Market 250 Index (.TSEMOTHR.JP)$ Circuit breakers were activated one after another, and dumping of spot stocks involved in margin trading accelerated. The exchange rate also became a historic crash due to the rapid rise of yen to 141 yen per dollar. The next day, a reaction against the crash took precedence, and there was a sudden backlash. On the 7th, Bank of Japan Vice Governor Uchida Shinichi said, “The financial market is in an unstable situation...
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Oh, the global stock market was extremely turbulent in mid to late July. The Nikkei Stock Average (on-market basis) reached a high of 2,426,000 yen on July 11th, but fell to a low of 761,100 yen on the 26th. It was a panic-inducing plunge. The decline was 4,815 yen, with a decrease of 11.3%. Honestly, this is too much of a drop.
In the market, it is explained that there has been a reversal of the yen carry trade. The recent example of this was in 2007. In that situation, the yen appreciated by 10%. If we assume a 10% appreciation this time, we must be prepared for a level around 1 dollar = 145 yen.
However, in the short term, we don't expect the yen to appreciate that much. The reason for this is that the deficit in trade and service balance and the amount of outward investment are extremely different compared to 2007.
Currently, there is pressure for the yen to depreciate by 37 trillion yen. For this 10 yen appreciation, it may be due to the anti-yen comments by the US presidential candidate Trump during the election, as well as the rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July and the interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan.
The current situation of "KakuTora" is becoming suspicious, and the BOJ gold...
In the market, it is explained that there has been a reversal of the yen carry trade. The recent example of this was in 2007. In that situation, the yen appreciated by 10%. If we assume a 10% appreciation this time, we must be prepared for a level around 1 dollar = 145 yen.
However, in the short term, we don't expect the yen to appreciate that much. The reason for this is that the deficit in trade and service balance and the amount of outward investment are extremely different compared to 2007.
Currently, there is pressure for the yen to depreciate by 37 trillion yen. For this 10 yen appreciation, it may be due to the anti-yen comments by the US presidential candidate Trump during the election, as well as the rate cut by the Federal Reserve in July and the interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan.
The current situation of "KakuTora" is becoming suspicious, and the BOJ gold...
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The stock market has completely fallen into a “summer wither” market. There was a sharp global stock depreciation from July 24 to 25. Since it's a summer vacation, there are few market participants. Also, isn't there a rewind of the “trump trade” happening?
Additionally, the collapse of the semiconductor-related sector, which has continued to rise rapidly, uncertainty about the American presidential election, and the high pressure on the yen (the appreciation of the yen pushes down the Nikkei Stock Average by about 400 yen → rushing into the 152 yen range over the weekend) are amplifying the uncertain mood. However, it seems that the Nikkei Stock Average has come close to the immediate bottom zone.
Of popular brands $Disco (6146.JP)$、 $Tokyo Electron (8035.JP)$、 $Lasertec (6920.JP)$The decline in the main stock market is tough, isn't it? Technically, it forms an immediate ceiling. There are also people shouting, “I'm selling color.” Push buying is strictly prohibited in this situation. The intensification of US-China trade friction (America requests self-restraint from exports to China) has cast a shadow on the semiconductor industry.
The American presidential election is the Republican Trump campaign (Ba...
Additionally, the collapse of the semiconductor-related sector, which has continued to rise rapidly, uncertainty about the American presidential election, and the high pressure on the yen (the appreciation of the yen pushes down the Nikkei Stock Average by about 400 yen → rushing into the 152 yen range over the weekend) are amplifying the uncertain mood. However, it seems that the Nikkei Stock Average has come close to the immediate bottom zone.
Of popular brands $Disco (6146.JP)$、 $Tokyo Electron (8035.JP)$、 $Lasertec (6920.JP)$The decline in the main stock market is tough, isn't it? Technically, it forms an immediate ceiling. There are also people shouting, “I'm selling color.” Push buying is strictly prohibited in this situation. The intensification of US-China trade friction (America requests self-restraint from exports to China) has cast a shadow on the semiconductor industry.
The American presidential election is the Republican Trump campaign (Ba...
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