Well, the stock market from mid-July to late July was rough around the world. The Nikkei Stock Average (Zalaba basis) was sold to a high price of 0.04 million2426 yen on 7/11 and to a low of 0.03 million7611 yen on the 26th. It's a crash close to panic. The depreciation range is 4815 yen, and the rate of decline is 11.3%. Honestly, this is too low.
　The market explains that “a reversal of the yen carry trade has occurred.” The most recent example of a “yen carry trade” is 2007. The yen depreciated 10% in this phase. If the yen appreciates 10% this time, we must be prepared for a level where 1 dollar = 145 yen.
　However, we have determined that the yen will not appreciate that much in the near future. The reason for this is that compared to 2007, the balance of trade and services and foreign investment deficits are extremely different.
　Currently, the yen depreciates by as much as 37 trillion yen. In addition to Trump candidate Trump's remarks to control the depreciation of the yen in the American presidential election, I think the Fed's interest rate cut in July and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike were factored into the 10 yen appreciation here.
　As for the current situation, the “secure tiger” has become suspicious, and the Bank of Japan Gold from 7/30 to 31...

〇Looking back on last week
“A sharp drop started due to European political unease but turned back in value”
The Nikkei Average fell to 38596.47 yen last week, weakening 218.09 yen (-0.56%) per week. The Tokyo market at the beginning of the week depreciated completely due to European political unease surrounding the French and British elections, and the Nikkei Average temporarily entered the 37,000 yen range, but prices returned in response to the calming of European political unease. However, due to lack of clues and materials, the Prime Market trading price on the 20th hit 3.17 trillion yen, which hit a low this year, and business was quiet throughout the week. Developments where the Nikkei Average was conscious of the 25-day moving average level as upper price resistance continued.
〇This week's outlook
“Focus on key stocks in the standard and growth markets”
While there are many days when trading prices on the Prime Market in June remain in the 3 trillion yen range, there are no prominent sales, and the Nikkei Average continues to be flat, centered around 38500 yen. It seems better to watch that the “summer withering market” has already entered. If large stocks in the prime market are difficult to move, let's focus on the standard market or growth market. Last week, we looked at TOPIX's new reform plan announced by JPX Research Institute on the 19th, and Stan...

　The Fed's interest rate cut is likely to be postponed until July or later. The American employment statistics (May) were 272,000 people, which greatly exceeded the expected increase of 180,000 people. On Wall Street, the “3 interest rate cuts within the year” as of March have been revised to “2 times,” and there are even voices saying “there won't be any within the year...”
　Meanwhile, as expected, the ECB cut interest rates by 0.25% (25 basis points). Interest rate cuts followed by Switzerland and Sweden. The United Kingdom will follow suit. Europe is on a monetary easing trend. However, it is unclear whether or not the FRB's attitude will advance to cut interest rates in July.
　After all, this is because economic indicators are good. In America, household assets have swelled to 160 trillion dollars (approximately 2,4960 trillion yen) in response to a booming stock market and rising real estate prices. On a quarterly basis, the end of September last year was 151 trillion dollars, and the end of December last year was 156 trillion dollars. That's amazing.
　It is increasing by 4 trillion to 5 trillion dollars (approximately 600 trillion to 800 trillion yen) every 3 months. The composition is that the wealthy are getting richer and richer. After all, it is a country where stocks and investment trusts account for 56% of personal financial assets. This probably shouldn't be an apprenticeship...

　On Wall Street, it is said to be Sell in May (stocks sold in May). As is the case with Japan's market quotes for the setsubun ceiling and the bottom of the equinox, this is due to the seasonal investment behavior of institutional investors. In the case of America, individual income tax refunds (just over 40 trillion yen in 2024) were made from February to May. It is a structure where these funds flow into the stock market through mutual funds and support stock appreciation.
　However, that hasn't been the case recently. Rather, the trend of Sell in June (pattern of high price formation from June to July) is strong.
　The same goes for the Japanese market. In the case of Japan, stock buybacks will be announced when the March financial results are announced. Toyota Motor Corporation (7203) is a good example (the total amount is 1 trillion yen, 410 million shares, and a share buyback of 3% of the number of issued shares has been announced). Stock buybacks may have delayed the high price formation period to June.
　Of course, I'm not advocating Sell in June in this situation. It's just a match. Also, there is still a possibility that Prime Minister Kishida will be dissolved and run for a general election at the end of the Diet session on June 23 this year. “Stock appreciation” in the dissolution, general election and stock market...