Key points for this week
This week in the Japanese stock market,Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision meetingやMr. Trump's presidential inauguration ceremonyといった重要なイベントを控え、神経質な展開が続くと見られている。特に、トランプ氏の関税政策が具体化することで、輸出関連株が売られる可能性がある。一方、日銀の利上げが市場に8割以上織り込まれている状況では、見送りは難しいと考えられており、利上げが実施されれば円高が進む可能性がある。ただし、円高が進んでも日本株に対する大きな影響は限定的で、内外イベントが通過した後には不透明感が晴れ、見直し買いが優勢になる可能性However, there is a possibility that the upward trend will continue until the end of the year due to expectations for the Trump administration.
On an individual stock basis, the 23rd's $Nidec (6594.JP)$ and $Disco (6146.JP)$Earnings Reports are attracting attention and could potentially impact the entire technology sector. In addition, it is expected that semiconductor-related stocks will move steadily in response to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC)'s strong earnings.
The US stock market this week is,Trump's presidential inauguration speechや、Earnings season for companiesAttention is focused on the progress of . In particular, there is a possibility that it will be signed shortly after taking office...

The U.S. November ISM Manufacturing Business Conditions Index (December 3rd, Japan Time, Tuesday).
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Unexpected improvement in the U.S. October ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Conditions Index, supported by strong employment to bolster consumption, suggesting the Fed's gradual rate cuts.
[Market Reaction] Unexpected increase in the U.S. October ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Conditions Index, leading to dollar buying.
DealBook Summit (December 5th, Thursday JST).
Next week, there will be the ISM Manufacturing Business Index and employment statistics on the 6th. On the 5th, Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, is scheduled to participate in the DealBook Summit hosted by The New York Times. According to the market, it is expected that he will state, 'Continued gradual interest rate cuts are appropriate'.
US November employment statistics (December 6th, Friday JST).
US October employment statistics
- Unemployment rate in October: 4.1% (Estimate: 4.1%, September: 4.1%)
- Number of non-farm sector employees in October: +0.012 million people (Estimate: +0.101 million people, September: +0.223 million people←+0.254 million people)
- Average hourly wage in October: +4.0% year-on-year (Estimate: +4.0%, September: +3.9%←+4.0%)
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Market reaction: USA October employment statistics, employment growth at its lowest level since 2020, resulting in selling pressure on the dollar.
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Views on the re-election of former President Donald Trump have intensified in response to the attempted assassination incident on the 13th, and a “Trump trade” that assumes a “definite tiger” is progressing in the market.
So, about domestic brands5 themes and 19 related stocks that are likely to receive a tailwind from “Definitely Tora”, and 1 individual stockI will pick it up.
Theme 1: ＜Defense＞
Is Japan's increase in defense spending a benefit to related stocks
Mr. Trump, who emphasizes the US first principle, insisted on reducing the US military burden to defend allies and increasing the burden on each ally since his time as former president, by hinting at withdrawal from NATO.
There is a high possibility that Japan will also ask for an increase in the burden of defense spendingIt is believed thatDemand will increase mainly from existing defense-related companiesThat is expected.
◆ $Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011.JP)$
No. 1 transaction value with the Defense Equipment Agency of the Ministry of DefenseIt is a reserved seat. The number of contracts for fiscal year 22 was 157, or 459.1 billion yen, accounting for 25.5% of the agency's total contract amount. The main items delivered are escort ships, submarines, next fighter jets, etc.
◆ $Kawasaki Heavy Industries (7012.JP)$
defense...

$MARA Holdings (MARA.US)$
It's really... big...