$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$
Similarly, with unexpected data, last time the data was released, the stock price plummeted and opened lower, but after a few minutes of decline (at that time, the Nasdaq was less than 1% away from 10,000 points), the market began to rebound significantly. The trend was even smoother than this time.
How should we predict such a trend, or what can we learn from it?
After the previous data, the trend of that day belonged to a typical situation where the bearish news had been exhausted, and some funds started to rebound emotionally. In addition, at that time, the Nasdaq was already very close to breaking through 10,000 points, so there would definitely be funds to participate in the rebound market game. As a result, the market moved forward amid disagreements.
At that time, the situation was that CPI data that far exceeded expectations caused the market to plunge multiple times, because once the data is very poor, a large amount of funds will habitually participate in short-selling and selling off, and then the funds that kill the shorts or play the reversal game will come in.
This CPI data belongs to a typical bullish event. Although the CPI still maintains an increase of over 7%, there has been a decline. This is because before the data came out, the market had fully priced in the CPI. So even if there is a slight hope of bullish news, there may be a short squeeze. That's how this week played out. Of course, disagreements are still apparent. You can see that in the first half hour before the market opened, there was a shift from disagreement to consensus. This is also the best opportunity for bears to exit. For example, I decisively shorted Tesla at the opening, luckily I ran fast, otherwise it would be disastrous.
If you really want to delve into the issue of inflation, in fact, I don't think there has been any substantial improvement...
Similarly, with unexpected data, last time the data was released, the stock price plummeted and opened lower, but after a few minutes of decline (at that time, the Nasdaq was less than 1% away from 10,000 points), the market began to rebound significantly. The trend was even smoother than this time.
How should we predict such a trend, or what can we learn from it?
After the previous data, the trend of that day belonged to a typical situation where the bearish news had been exhausted, and some funds started to rebound emotionally. In addition, at that time, the Nasdaq was already very close to breaking through 10,000 points, so there would definitely be funds to participate in the rebound market game. As a result, the market moved forward amid disagreements.
At that time, the situation was that CPI data that far exceeded expectations caused the market to plunge multiple times, because once the data is very poor, a large amount of funds will habitually participate in short-selling and selling off, and then the funds that kill the shorts or play the reversal game will come in.
This CPI data belongs to a typical bullish event. Although the CPI still maintains an increase of over 7%, there has been a decline. This is because before the data came out, the market had fully priced in the CPI. So even if there is a slight hope of bullish news, there may be a short squeeze. That's how this week played out. Of course, disagreements are still apparent. You can see that in the first half hour before the market opened, there was a shift from disagreement to consensus. This is also the best opportunity for bears to exit. For example, I decisively shorted Tesla at the opening, luckily I ran fast, otherwise it would be disastrous.
If you really want to delve into the issue of inflation, in fact, I don't think there has been any substantial improvement...
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$Apple (AAPL.US)$ $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ $Alibaba (BABA.US)$
1. The widely popular belief in the market is not to put all your eggs in one basket! 2. Before trading stocks, you must first learn to invest in funds, follow a step-by-step approach.
These concepts are actually all wrong!
People who hold these beliefs may not even have entered the basic door of the stock market, which means they don't really understand what investment is, what the secondary market is, and they don't understand what stocks are. But they have quite a bit of confidence, thinking they are right. In fact, this is related to the sentence by Luo Xiang: the less people know, the more absolute their beliefs, the more they have an inexplicable confidence and courage.
Some very simple examples can break these concepts. First, the stock market is simply a financing channel for companies, that's the essence of the stock market. Using the simplest mathematical logic, you can see that: buying a stock, your ultimate result is either an increase or a decrease, with a fifty-fifty chance; if you buy two stocks, the probability of both stocks increasing is only 25%, so your probability of making money decreases from the original 50% when buying one to 25% when buying two. It's not some mystical secret? It's just a mathematical permutation and combination, rise-rise, rise-fall, fall-rise, fall-fall, it's very straightforward, very intuitive.
For one stock, you have a 50% risk of loss. For two stocks, the probability of both increasing is only 25%, and your probability of making money decreases from 50% when buying one to 25% when buying two. This is not some mystical secret, just a simple mathematical permutation and combination of rise-rise, rise-fall, fall-rise, and fall-fall.
1. The widely popular belief in the market is not to put all your eggs in one basket! 2. Before trading stocks, you must first learn to invest in funds, follow a step-by-step approach.
These concepts are actually all wrong!
People who hold these beliefs may not even have entered the basic door of the stock market, which means they don't really understand what investment is, what the secondary market is, and they don't understand what stocks are. But they have quite a bit of confidence, thinking they are right. In fact, this is related to the sentence by Luo Xiang: the less people know, the more absolute their beliefs, the more they have an inexplicable confidence and courage.
Some very simple examples can break these concepts. First, the stock market is simply a financing channel for companies, that's the essence of the stock market. Using the simplest mathematical logic, you can see that: buying a stock, your ultimate result is either an increase or a decrease, with a fifty-fifty chance; if you buy two stocks, the probability of both stocks increasing is only 25%, so your probability of making money decreases from the original 50% when buying one to 25% when buying two. It's not some mystical secret? It's just a mathematical permutation and combination, rise-rise, rise-fall, fall-rise, fall-fall, it's very straightforward, very intuitive.
For one stock, you have a 50% risk of loss. For two stocks, the probability of both increasing is only 25%, and your probability of making money decreases from 50% when buying one to 25% when buying two. This is not some mystical secret, just a simple mathematical permutation and combination of rise-rise, rise-fall, fall-rise, and fall-fall.
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$Apple (AAPL.US)$
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$
$Amazon (AMZN.US)$
New energy vehicle highlights:
1. Volvo CEO: By 2025, electric cars are expected to be as cheap as fuel cars in the same class.
Integrated circuit (chip) news:
1. Apple foundry Heshuo: Shipments of desktops and motherboards are expected to drop 50% to 55% month-on-month in the fourth quarter.
Internet company highlights:
1. CEO Cainiao: Tmall Shuang11 Cainiao's door-to-door package delivery is expected to exceed 200 million.
2. Xiaomi announced the final battle report for Double 11. According to the data, the cumulative payment amount of Xiaomi Shuang11 omnichannel exceeded 17 billion yuan, ranking first in the sales/sales volume of Android mobile phone brands on the four major platforms.
3. TikTok plans to introduce a voice shopping function in the US to compete with Amazon and Google.
4. Following major layoffs, Meta cut off Portal smart displays and unreleased smartwatch projects.
5. Musk encouraged Twitter employees to mine creators from YouTube: we could pay 10% more.
Other tech news:.
1. Investors from Silicon Valley and Wall Street have previously crowded out FTX. They have invested nearly 2 billion US dollars (about 14.24 billion yuan), with almost no conditions attached, and no supervision of the FTX board of directors. FTX has now declared bankruptcy.
2. Huawei unveiled its first smart concept at the 2022 World VR Industry Conference, which opened today...
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$
$Amazon (AMZN.US)$
New energy vehicle highlights:
1. Volvo CEO: By 2025, electric cars are expected to be as cheap as fuel cars in the same class.
Integrated circuit (chip) news:
1. Apple foundry Heshuo: Shipments of desktops and motherboards are expected to drop 50% to 55% month-on-month in the fourth quarter.
Internet company highlights:
1. CEO Cainiao: Tmall Shuang11 Cainiao's door-to-door package delivery is expected to exceed 200 million.
2. Xiaomi announced the final battle report for Double 11. According to the data, the cumulative payment amount of Xiaomi Shuang11 omnichannel exceeded 17 billion yuan, ranking first in the sales/sales volume of Android mobile phone brands on the four major platforms.
3. TikTok plans to introduce a voice shopping function in the US to compete with Amazon and Google.
4. Following major layoffs, Meta cut off Portal smart displays and unreleased smartwatch projects.
5. Musk encouraged Twitter employees to mine creators from YouTube: we could pay 10% more.
Other tech news:.
1. Investors from Silicon Valley and Wall Street have previously crowded out FTX. They have invested nearly 2 billion US dollars (about 14.24 billion yuan), with almost no conditions attached, and no supervision of the FTX board of directors. FTX has now declared bankruptcy.
2. Huawei unveiled its first smart concept at the 2022 World VR Industry Conference, which opened today...
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$Apple (AAPL.US)$ The CPI index announced on Thursday has given a great surprise to the market. We have witnessed the biggest lightning of happiness in 2022, with the Nasdaq soaring 7% on the same day. Were you there when the lightning struck? [happy] The consumer confidence index announced on Friday was much lower than expected, and this low confidence will continue to contribute to the decline in the inflation index. Now the market expects interest rates to peak in March next year, with peak rates falling to 4.75-5%. In the next phase, the Fed's stance is no longer the most crucial focus for the market.
The collapse of FTX has shaken my faith in cryptocurrency. Isn't this crypto industry too fragile? The second largest exchange with a valuation of hundreds of billions, collapsed just because of a few manipulations of asset collateral. It took only 5 days from the spread of the news to the official announcement of the closure. What happened to decentralization? This makes me deeply worried and sweat profusely.
The so-called "Lightning Theory" suggests that if the market suddenly rises one day like a "lightning of happiness," as investors, we must ensure that we are present when the lightning strikes.
Researchers have compiled statistics on the returns of investing in the s&p 500 index from 1996 to 2015, a span of 20 years: if you hold on during this period without making any changes, the annual return is about 4.8%; if, for various reasons, you miss the 5 days with the highest increase during these 20 years, then your return will drop to about 2.7% per year; if you miss the 10 days with the highest increase, your return...
The collapse of FTX has shaken my faith in cryptocurrency. Isn't this crypto industry too fragile? The second largest exchange with a valuation of hundreds of billions, collapsed just because of a few manipulations of asset collateral. It took only 5 days from the spread of the news to the official announcement of the closure. What happened to decentralization? This makes me deeply worried and sweat profusely.
The so-called "Lightning Theory" suggests that if the market suddenly rises one day like a "lightning of happiness," as investors, we must ensure that we are present when the lightning strikes.
Researchers have compiled statistics on the returns of investing in the s&p 500 index from 1996 to 2015, a span of 20 years: if you hold on during this period without making any changes, the annual return is about 4.8%; if, for various reasons, you miss the 5 days with the highest increase during these 20 years, then your return will drop to about 2.7% per year; if you miss the 10 days with the highest increase, your return...
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$Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares ETF (SOXL.US)$ Can the uptrend continue today? Always selling high.![]()
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Citi's Q3 holdings: playing with options strategies, bearish on Tesla, favoring Apple and Microsoft.
$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ According to the disclosure from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Citigroup submitted its third-quarter holdings report (Form 13F) as of September 30, 2022.
According to statistics, Citigroup's total market value of holdings in the third quarter reached $139.726 billion, compared to the total market value of $134.358 billion in the previous quarter, an increase of 4%. Citigroup added 398 individual stocks to its portfolio in the third quarter and increased its holdings in 2,203 individual stocks. At the same time, Citigroup reduced its holdings in 2,656 individual stocks and liquidated 810 individual stocks. Among the top ten holdings, the top five holdings accounted for 30.28% of the total market value. Among the top five major positions, the first one is QQQ PUT US, which is a put option for Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ), with a holding of 35.4054 million shares and a market value of approximately $9.462 billion, accounting for 6.77% of the investment portfolio.
The second one is IWM PUT US, which is a put option for Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), with a holding of approximately 38.4588 million shares and a market value of approximately $6.343 billion, accounting for 4.54% of the investment portfolio.
The third one is QQQ CALL US, which is a call option for Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ), with a holding of 19.5616 million shares and a market value of approximately $5.236 billion, accounting for 3.75% of the investment portfolio.
...
According to statistics, Citigroup's total market value of holdings in the third quarter reached $139.726 billion, compared to the total market value of $134.358 billion in the previous quarter, an increase of 4%. Citigroup added 398 individual stocks to its portfolio in the third quarter and increased its holdings in 2,203 individual stocks. At the same time, Citigroup reduced its holdings in 2,656 individual stocks and liquidated 810 individual stocks. Among the top ten holdings, the top five holdings accounted for 30.28% of the total market value. Among the top five major positions, the first one is QQQ PUT US, which is a put option for Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ), with a holding of 35.4054 million shares and a market value of approximately $9.462 billion, accounting for 6.77% of the investment portfolio.
The second one is IWM PUT US, which is a put option for Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), with a holding of approximately 38.4588 million shares and a market value of approximately $6.343 billion, accounting for 4.54% of the investment portfolio.
The third one is QQQ CALL US, which is a call option for Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ), with a holding of 19.5616 million shares and a market value of approximately $5.236 billion, accounting for 3.75% of the investment portfolio.
...
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$Amazon (AMZN.US)$
(1) Decisiveness
Success lies in making decisions. Many investors lack mental training and are unwilling to chase prices in a rising market. They watch stocks soar and only chase after them in a daze, ending up getting trapped and regretting it. Therefore, investors should have a "sword" in their minds, buying at market price and selling at market price, so as to avoid regrets.
(2) Seize opportunities and chase after rising prices
Many stock analysts always advise investors not to chase price increases and sell on price drops, and they should mainly adopt a wait-and-see attitude. This often causes some investors to hesitate. In fact, whether it is during significant market fluctuations or when the overall market is consolidating, there are still many opportunities for profit. The key is to seize the opportunities and be good at capital movement to make a profit.
(3) Timely change strategy to avoid being trapped
Once institutions withdraw from a certain industry after creating public opinion and speculation, that thematic area will inevitably be abandoned by the market. Therefore, when trading stocks, there is no need to believe in any particular themes or concepts, just treat them as market hotspots and actively participate. Only by timely adjusting trading strategies and going with the trend can one ensure more wins than losses.
Regardless of whether the overall market is rising or falling, there are opportunities in the market every day. If you cannot understand or predict the market, it's okay, just follow me! I will provide daily answers and share my insights with everyone. If you have any questions, you can leave comments or messages, and I will share my experiences with everyone. I also wish everyone success in trading stocks and no difficult stocks in the world after becoming more knowledgeable.
I hope that no matter how the market changes, we can always walk together...
(1) Decisiveness
Success lies in making decisions. Many investors lack mental training and are unwilling to chase prices in a rising market. They watch stocks soar and only chase after them in a daze, ending up getting trapped and regretting it. Therefore, investors should have a "sword" in their minds, buying at market price and selling at market price, so as to avoid regrets.
(2) Seize opportunities and chase after rising prices
Many stock analysts always advise investors not to chase price increases and sell on price drops, and they should mainly adopt a wait-and-see attitude. This often causes some investors to hesitate. In fact, whether it is during significant market fluctuations or when the overall market is consolidating, there are still many opportunities for profit. The key is to seize the opportunities and be good at capital movement to make a profit.
(3) Timely change strategy to avoid being trapped
Once institutions withdraw from a certain industry after creating public opinion and speculation, that thematic area will inevitably be abandoned by the market. Therefore, when trading stocks, there is no need to believe in any particular themes or concepts, just treat them as market hotspots and actively participate. Only by timely adjusting trading strategies and going with the trend can one ensure more wins than losses.
Regardless of whether the overall market is rising or falling, there are opportunities in the market every day. If you cannot understand or predict the market, it's okay, just follow me! I will provide daily answers and share my insights with everyone. If you have any questions, you can leave comments or messages, and I will share my experiences with everyone. I also wish everyone success in trading stocks and no difficult stocks in the world after becoming more knowledgeable.
I hope that no matter how the market changes, we can always walk together...
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$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Selling covered call options is a strategy adopted by many large funds, and individual investors in the U.S. stock market can also refer to it. You can earn income while holding stocks.
The execution method of the strategy is to hold or buy stocks and sell corresponding call options. This strategy is suitable for long-term investors who hold certain stocks that have been in a consolidation phase or have bearish news. By doing covered calls to hedge the risk, you may get additional income.
Make money in small market gains, make money when there is no market gain, and lose less in market downturns. Covered calls are not recommended only when stocks experience a sharp increase. Therefore, rolling covered calls while holding certain symbols in the long term may be a good strategy for experienced investors.
Profit Comparison
Assuming that the investor holds 200 shares of Amazon stocks from January 1st to December 17th, 2021.
If there is no trading activity during the holding period, the final total assets amount to $675,484.
If the investor implements the covered call strategy during the holding period, with one trade per week; and if they sell 100 shares of stocks upon exercising the options, then buy 100 shares on the next trading day. The final total assets amount to $728,898.
The execution method of the strategy is to hold or buy stocks and sell corresponding call options. This strategy is suitable for long-term investors who hold certain stocks that have been in a consolidation phase or have bearish news. By doing covered calls to hedge the risk, you may get additional income.
Make money in small market gains, make money when there is no market gain, and lose less in market downturns. Covered calls are not recommended only when stocks experience a sharp increase. Therefore, rolling covered calls while holding certain symbols in the long term may be a good strategy for experienced investors.
Profit Comparison
Assuming that the investor holds 200 shares of Amazon stocks from January 1st to December 17th, 2021.
If there is no trading activity during the holding period, the final total assets amount to $675,484.
If the investor implements the covered call strategy during the holding period, with one trade per week; and if they sell 100 shares of stocks upon exercising the options, then buy 100 shares on the next trading day. The final total assets amount to $728,898.
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