Now that the profit and loss for the period from January 1 to December 31, 2024 has been finalized, I want to summarize it.
First of all, what is clear is that achieving a return of +186% (+52.78 million yen) with U.S. individual stocks alone was excessive, and although it turned out well in hindsight, I am convinced that it was completely non-reproducible. The amount I had invested in U.S. stocks at the beginning of the period was less than one-tenth of my current total assets, including this year's profit. Simply put, I was making investments beyond the generally accepted risk tolerance level, on a temporary basis.
However, the main reason for this decision was the belief that from the beginning of the year to the summer, the risk-return of NVDA far exceeded that of any other assets. At that time, NVDA was in a state where ① its products were competitive, ② its market was rapidly growing, ③ its stock price was very undervalued, ④ its financial health was significantly stronger than other U.S. companies accessing that market with high interest rates, and ⑤ the U.S. stocks themselves were facing significant devaluation in cash due to high inflation from monetary easing, ⑥ there were no indicators supporting a rate cut by the U.S., and ⑦ discussion of raising interest rates in Japan was not on the table for a certain period. As a result, the more I analyzed the situation, the more I was prompted to sell Japanese yen assets...