Overview of the ceasefire agreement
Duration: 60 days
Brokerage by the USA, with all parties agreeing
Temporary cessation of devastating conflicts in border areas.
Background and objectives
Conflict started: about 1 year ago
Casualties: 3,100 deaths in Lebanon, 1.2 million people displaced
Israel's goal: Focus on countering Iran, and strengthen pressure on the Gaza Strip.
Hezbollah's goal: Revitalize the regime.
Challenges.
Disarmament of Hezbollah and withdrawal from the border areas.
Effectiveness of monitoring by UN forces and Lebanese army.
Uncertainty of long-term peace process.
Limited ripple effects to the entire Middle East region.
Impact on the market
Crude oil price: Decline due to easing tensions in the Middle East.
Gold price: Decline due to reduced risk aversion.
In case of failure to implement ceasefire, there is a risk of price increase.
Points to watch for in the future
Compliance status of ceasefire conditions (Hezbollah's withdrawal).
Improvement of relations between Israel and the Lebanese government.
Fluctuations in the crude oil and gold markets and the impact of the ceasefire.
[Cultural Perspective]
The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah is an important step in the Middle East situation, but there are many challenges.
The 60-day ceasefire is only a temporary measure, leaving difficult issues such as disarmament of Hezbollah and withdrawal from the border areas unresolved.
In particular, mutual trust is essential for a long-term peace process....

① Annual income barrier of 1.03 million yen
Current: Income tax incurred on income exceeding 1.03 million yen.
Proposal: Increase the deduction amount to 1.78 million yen.
Issues: Standards (minimum wage or inflation rate), response to reduced tax revenue, reassessment of dependent deductions.
②Reduced gasoline tax
Current: 53.8 yen per liter (25.1 yen surcharge).
Issues: elimination of additional surcharges, removal of trigger clauses, measures to reduce tax revenue.
③Residential mortgage tax reduction
Current: Lowering the borrowing limit based on energy-saving performance.
Issues: Extension of preferential measures for the child-rearing generation.
Review of dependent deduction
Proposal: Income tax deduction of 0.38 million yen → 0.25 million yen, residence tax deduction of 0.33 million yen → 0.12 million yen.
Background: Expansion of child allowance for high school students.
Raise the limit of the Individual-type Defined Contribution Pension Plan (iDeCo).
Current: Full amount of premiums are eligible for income deduction.
Issue: Raise the limit reflecting the rise in prices and wages.
6. Taxation of retirement benefits.
Current: Deduction increases for over 20 years of service.
Topic: System revision in response to increased job changes.
⑦ Preferential taxation for small and medium-sized corporate taxes.
Current: Up to 8 million yen, the tax rate is 15%.
Point of contention: Whether to continue preferential treatment or narrow down the target companies.
⑧ Start date of defense tax increase.
Background: Secure 1 trillion yen by 2027.
Issue: Setting the start date for the tax increase.
Discussions on reviewing the 1.03 million yen income threshold and reducing gasoline taxes involve the citizens...

1. Psychological impact: Profit-taking selling occurs at the price range of $0.1 million.
2. Market overheating: Rapid price surges in a short period lead to corrections.
Phase of demand: Funds are diversified into altcoins and meme coins.
Regulatory uncertainty: President Trump's expectations for regulatory easing lack specific measures.
Increase in profit-taking sales: Short-term investors and large traders sell near significant levels.
Lack of liquidity: Trading volume decreased over the weekend and the rise slowed down.
Strength in the US dollar: A strong dollar suppresses inflow of funds into bitcoin.
Overall market adjustment: Cryptocurrency market as a whole transitioning from overheating to an adjustment phase.
[Cultural Perspective]
Bitcoin failed to break through 100,000 dollars for a variety of reasons.
First, profit-taking sell was induced by the psychological milestone of 0.1 million dollars, which capped the upside.
Furthermore, the overheating of the market due to the re-election of Mr. Trump also led to a short-term adjustment.
Moreover, the fund diversification into altcoins and meme coins resulted in a round of demand for Bitcoin.
While expectations for regulatory easing are rising, the lack of concrete measures and limited large-scale fund inflow were also contributing factors.
Amidst the decrease in liquidity over the weekend, the U.S. dollar...

① 11-1 month outlook: Revenue of 37.5 billion dollars (±2%, financial estimates 37.09 billion dollars)
② 8-10 month performance: Revenue of 35.082 billion dollars (financial estimates 33.162 billion dollars), EPS 0.81 dollars (financial estimates 0.75 dollars)
Stock price reaction: About 2% decline in after-hours trading.
Background of stock price decline: Excessive expectations, profit-taking sell, overvaluation.
Performance factors: Increase in demand for GPUs for AI generation and data centers.
Industry Trends: Concerns about slowing growth in AI demand, intensifying competition with competing companies.
Future Focus Areas: Sustainability of generated AI demand, new product announcements, signing of large contracts.
[Cultural Perspective]
Nvidia announced a fourth quarter (November-January) revenue forecast of 37.5 billion dollars (±2%), exceeding the analysts' estimate of 37.09 billion dollars, but falling short of some investors' high expectations, causing the stock price to drop by about 2% in after-hours trading.
Technically, there has been movement among institutional investors since the peak and year-end withdrawal.
The revenue for the October-December period was 35.082 billion dollars (market expectation of 33.162 billion dollars), with adjusted EPS of 0.81 dollars (estimate of 0.75 dollars), performing well.
However, the overvaluation of stock prices and profit-taking sales are affecting...

① USA Stock Market
S&P500 extends gains, led by NVIDIA (+4.9%))
Nasdaq rises by 1.04%, driven by high-tech stocks
Walmart raises its full-year outlook.
② US Treasury bond market
Geopolitical risks temporarily push the yield on 10-year bonds down to 4.34%.
Increased demand for safe assets, volatility persists
Foreign exchange market 3
The dollar/yen recovered to the high 154 yen range, temporarily recording the 153 yen range.
The Canadian dollar rose against the dollar due to an inflation rate higher than expected.
Geopolitical risks
Ukraine attacks Russia with missiles supplied by the USA
Russia relaxes nuclear criteria, raising concerns of escalated war
5. Financial policy
The pace of US rate cuts is uncertain, depending on inflation data
Speculation on significant rate cuts by the Bank of Canada has receded
Outlook
Nvidia earnings influencing the market direction
Geopolitical risks supporting demand for safe assets
Dollar/yen may break 155 yen, watch out for volatility
[Cultural Perspective]
In the US stock market, expectations for Nvidia's earnings and AI-related demand continue.
The rise of the S&P500 and Nasdaq surpasses geopolitical risks in the short term, becoming a positive factor.
However, if tensions between Russia and Ukraine persist, there may be a resurgence of risk aversion.

① The yen has fallen to the lower 155 yen range, and the lack of hawkish stance by the Bank of Japan is supporting the depreciation of the yen.
② S&P500 and Nasdaq rebound, Tesla rises, Nvidia declines ahead of earnings announcement.
US bonds saw buying interest due to high yields, with the 10-year bond yield closing at 4.41%.
WTI crude oil rose by 3.2%, supported by geopolitical risks and a weaker dollar.
Gold rose to the $2600 range, boosted by expectations of interest rate cuts and central bank gold purchases.
Geopolitical risks and financial policies are the main themes overall.
[Cultural Perspective]
The yen exchange rate fell to the mid-155 yen range following cautious remarks from Governor Ueda.
The market is incorporating the continuation of a weak yen trend against the backdrop of the Bank of Japan's lack of hawkish stance.
On the other hand, US stocks rebounded with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. (Including institutions' withdrawal)
Tesla's rise is leading the way, adjusting ahead of Nvidia's earnings announcement.
US bonds are inviting buying interest with high yields, and the yield on 10-year bonds has decreased to 4.41%.
Although a temporary increase in bond demand is observed, the expansion of the fiscal deficit suppresses long-term yield declines.
In the crude oil market, WTI rose by 3.2% due to Middle East risks and a weaker dollar, with supply concerns supporting prices.
The price of gold rose to the $2600 level due to expectations of rate cuts and central bank buying....

Economic Situation: The US economy is strong, and there is no need to rush for interest rate cuts.
Inflation Target: Inflation is moving towards the 2% target but has not fully reached it yet.
Rate cut stance: With a strong economy as a backdrop, a cautious pace of rate cuts is possible.
Labor market: The labor market is generally balanced, with the possibility that wage pressure increases are not sustainable.
Latest inflation data: Core CPI has grown at the same rate for 3 consecutive months, and inflation is sustained at a certain level.
Market expectations: The probability of a rate cut in December is about 70%, but Chairman Powell avoids specific comments.
FRB's stance: Not swayed by market expectations, emphasizing cautious judgment by closely monitoring economic indicators.
Federal Reserve Chair Powell believes that the US economy is doing well and there is no need to rush for an interest rate cut, but I think that a rate cut should not be made.
Although inflation is progressing towards the 2% target, it has not yet been achieved, and I believe the FRB will be forced to cut interest rates at a cautious pace.
The labor market is generally balanced, and the sustainability of wage growth is limited. However, depending on President Trump's intentions, the situation could change dramatically.
The latest Core CPI is strong, and inflation pressure remains...