Bank of Japan Governor Ueda will hold a press conference at 3:30 p.m. on Wednesday, March 19 at 3:30 p.m.
At this Bank of Japan meeting,”Postponement of additional interest rate hikes” has become the market consensus. At the press conference, it is expected that attention will be drawn to the timing, pace, and ultimate target of the next rate hike. Views on economic and price developmentsFuture policy policyIt's also an important point.
In particular, the impact that the January interest rate hike had on the economy,Evaluating the impact of US tariff policiesIt will be the focus. The Bank of Japan has indicated a policy to proceed with policy adjustments based on the outlook report, and market interest has also been drawn to the governor's remarks on the economy and prices.
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The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index suggests that a value above 50 indicates "the service sector is expanding," while a value below 50 indicates "it is contracting." Based on this result and the trends of the past few months, the following analyses can be considered.
1. Latest result (March 2025)
• Previous value: 52.8
• Financial Estimate: 52.5
• Result: 53.5
The result was 53.5, exceeding the Financial Estimate (52.5) and the previous result (52.8). With a result above 50, it is still believed that the service sector is maintaining expansion. Furthermore, the fact that the result has turned upward from the previous month suggests that the sentiment in the service sector may be strengthening again.
2. Trends and patterns over the past few months
Looking at past data, the movements from the end of 2024 to the beginning of 2025 are as follows.
• 2024/11: Actual 56.0 approximately
• 2024/12: Actual 56.1 (slightly increased)
• January 2025: Actual 54.1 (slightly decreased)
• February 2025: Actual 52.8 (further decreased)
• March 2025: Actual 53.5 (increased)
As such, around the end of 2024, it was at a relatively high level of around 56...