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🔥 $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ hit all time high yet again on Monday 14 Oct at 5873, while $NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ broke it’s previous high of 20300 to notch 20430. 🔥
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While both retrace back close to 1% last night, bullish momentum is still intact. Following my previous🔮 market outlook, $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ $Apple (AAPL.US)$ $McDonald's (MCD.US)$ hit new highs before dragging $NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ down healthily. $Apple (AAPL.US)$ $Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.US)$ $JPMorgan (JPM.US)$ $Bank of America (BAC.US)$ good call...
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$SMIC (00981.HK)$
From a PE perspective, SMIC's valuation is definitely not cheap. However, for a company in a massive investment catch-up phase, with significant equipment depreciation and research and development expenses reducing profits, it is more appropriate to value using PB/PS ratios.
In the current situation of technological blockade, SMIC is the TSMC of the mainland, and for a long time, it is the only one. It is understandable to compare the valuation of A-shares to TSMC; in the context of the mainland dominated trend in the Hong Kong stock market, it is also reasonable to approach the valuation towards TSMC.
TSMC's reasonable valuation range over the past 10 years is approximately PS 7-13, and PB is roughly 4-8 times.
In 2024, the overall semiconductor market started to improve, with SMIC's growth rate in 2024 likely to be around 25%, generating approximately $7.5 billion in revenue; in 2025, growth could accelerate by another 25% to $10 billion, considering the intensity of SMIC's previous capacity expansion, it may be even higher.
Based on the 2025 revenue of 10 billion US dollars, the reasonable valuation range for Taiwan Semiconductor is 70-130 billion US dollars, with a P/S ratio of 7-13 times. The reasonable valuation for A shares is in the range of 500 billion to 1 trillion RMB. In a bullish market, the basic valuation could exceed 1 trillion RMB, while the market cap of Hong Kong stocks could exceed 600 billion Hong Kong dollars.
Regarding the impact of geopolitics, the technology blockade and sanctions by the USA have basically taken effect on SMIC, and any tactics that can be used essentially have no practical impact on SMIC; the domestic semiconductor equipment and materials sector has made rapid progress, from 2019 to 2020...
From a PE perspective, SMIC's valuation is definitely not cheap. However, for a company in a massive investment catch-up phase, with significant equipment depreciation and research and development expenses reducing profits, it is more appropriate to value using PB/PS ratios.
In the current situation of technological blockade, SMIC is the TSMC of the mainland, and for a long time, it is the only one. It is understandable to compare the valuation of A-shares to TSMC; in the context of the mainland dominated trend in the Hong Kong stock market, it is also reasonable to approach the valuation towards TSMC.
TSMC's reasonable valuation range over the past 10 years is approximately PS 7-13, and PB is roughly 4-8 times.
In 2024, the overall semiconductor market started to improve, with SMIC's growth rate in 2024 likely to be around 25%, generating approximately $7.5 billion in revenue; in 2025, growth could accelerate by another 25% to $10 billion, considering the intensity of SMIC's previous capacity expansion, it may be even higher.
Based on the 2025 revenue of 10 billion US dollars, the reasonable valuation range for Taiwan Semiconductor is 70-130 billion US dollars, with a P/S ratio of 7-13 times. The reasonable valuation for A shares is in the range of 500 billion to 1 trillion RMB. In a bullish market, the basic valuation could exceed 1 trillion RMB, while the market cap of Hong Kong stocks could exceed 600 billion Hong Kong dollars.
Regarding the impact of geopolitics, the technology blockade and sanctions by the USA have basically taken effect on SMIC, and any tactics that can be used essentially have no practical impact on SMIC; the domestic semiconductor equipment and materials sector has made rapid progress, from 2019 to 2020...
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The Delaware Chancery Court nullified Elon Musk's $56 billion compensation package in January, leaving him without pay for six years. Despite this, $Tesla (TSLA.US)$is allowing stockholders to ratify Musk's 2018 pay package at the annual meeting on June 13. Tesla board chair Robyn Denholm urged shareholders to approve Elon Musk's $56 billion pay package to prevent him from leaving the company. Denholm emphasized that reapproving the 2...
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Dear mooers,
Are you ready for a revolution in the investment world? Artificial Intelligence (AI) is changing the world, and moomoo is proud to be at the forefront of this exciting new era.![]()
Since the concept of "AI" was initially introduced in 1956, AI technology has been evolving at a tremendous pace, resulting in sophisticated systems like ChatGPT today. However, with investment opportunities fleeting in today's fast-paced world, i...
Are you ready for a revolution in the investment world? Artificial Intelligence (AI) is changing the world, and moomoo is proud to be at the forefront of this exciting new era.
Since the concept of "AI" was initially introduced in 1956, AI technology has been evolving at a tremendous pace, resulting in sophisticated systems like ChatGPT today. However, with investment opportunities fleeting in today's fast-paced world, i...
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$Ostin Technology Group (OST.US)$ Still the same saying, if you're timid and have little money, don't come in, haha.
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$UP Fintech (TIGR.US)$ Light the cigarettes one by one.
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