In particular, productivity growth in the 2nd-3rd quarter of 2023 was 4.1%.
Higher growth than during the dotcom bubble.

Meanwhile, the current expected PER is in a situation where it could fall either way.
(not high, not low)

There is also a presidential election cycle,
Amid the suspension of interest rate hikes and a decline in 10-year US bond yields due to the calming of the inflation rate,
The impact on corporate performance in the near future due to the continued high FF rate is important.
(If there is continuous growth in corporate performance EPS, it is also positive for the S&P 500)

Next year 2024 will be the fourth year of the presidential election cycle.
That monthly performance. Since February, the performance has been statistically positive.

Now, it has exceeded the 24-month average line (red vertical line).
If you look at the past, the unemployment rate has shown a sharp rise since then, so be careful.

The Federal Reserve has two mandates.
Attention is also being paid to one of them, maximizing employment (lowering the unemployment rate).

When talking about the cycle of interest rate hikes → interest rate cuts, it is usually necessary to be careful after “interest rate cuts have started.”

The division of light and dark in terms of stock prices of the S&P 500 is evident after the “start of interest rate cuts.”
Stock prices are currently moving on the assumption that there will be no US recession.

On the other hand, there is also bad data.
(Top) Expected inflation rate for 1 year ahead
(Bottom) Expected inflation rate for the next 5 years
Both have been skyrocketing recently.