The landscape has completely changed since Bank of Japan Governor Ueda continued mitigation and Buffett's remarks about buying Japan
My assets are also completely Easter since the Silicon Valley bank bankruptcy crisis, that's ridiculous
I won't buy more today, I'll do it when it goes down (I learned the tactic to buy when the Nikkei falls)

☑️ Moderate recession from the second half of this year
☑️ PCE 2.8% and core CPI 3.5% this year
☑️ In order to control inflation, it is necessary to have a period when real GDP falls below the trend
☑️ Due to price data revisions, the degree of disinflation is smaller than previous data, and inflation is still quite high
☑️ Consider additional monetary policies to lower long-term inflation expectations
⭐️ Summary We accept the recession in the second half of this year (3rd quarter onwards) and emphasize the effect of suppressing inflation. In particular, the content emphasizes maintaining a tightening stance even while assuming a credit crunch, to the extent that they are concerned that the long-term inflation expectations rate will remain high and consider new tightening measures, is it probably Pow ‼️ MBS sale ⁉️

✅ Exchange
⚫ ︎ The dollar fell
⚫ ︎ In response to the deceleration in CPI growth, there was a growing observation that the Fed would stop tightening after deciding to raise interest rates in May
○Voices from the Market
⚫ ︎ The fact that the overall inflation rate fell more than expected confirmed the view that interest rate hikes would basically end in 1 more time
⚫ ︎ This doesn't indicate the end of inflation yet
✅ Bonds
⚫ ︎ yield decline
⚫ ︎ It was anticipated that there is a possibility that monetary tightening will be stopped once after the interest rate hike in May
○Voices from the Market
⚫ ︎ I don't think CPI will cause the Fed to correct its trajectory
⚫ ︎ Relaxation of price pressure combined with signs of labor market calming down will temporarily spread security in the market
⚫ ︎ It's bright news, but it doesn't mean the end of tightening
✅ Shares
⚫ ︎ decline
⚫ ︎ From the FOMC minutes, a group of Fed officials expressed concerns about the liquidity crisis of regional banks
⚫ ︎ In the FOMC minutes, it became known that in the end it was concluded that priority would be given to dealing with inflation
○Voices from the Market
⚫ ︎ In the minutes of the proceedings, it became clear that the Fed is still concerned about the bank crisis and high prices
⚫ ︎ Inflation trends are even more clear with PPI on the 13th...

Core CPI has likely bottomed at the 5.5% level.
Thus, the Fed is likely to keep the monetary policy tight, despite the unfolding recession.
As a result, the overvalued QQQ stocks are likely to re-enter the bear market.
The CPI expectations for March
I have been warning that the disinflationary trend from "peak inflation" in 2022 is likely to be short lived.
Let's look at the inflation expectations for March, to be releas...

YENZO will explain the CPI flow, analyze the numbers at the CPI announcement, and explain the purple ribbon movement thereafter!

What kind of company is Ark Investment
Ark Investment Inc. was founded in 2014 and is an institutional investor headquartered in Florida, USA. Cathy Wood, the founder of the company, prefixed the company name with ARK (arc), which means ark. The company's assets under management as of the end of December 2022 were 11.54 billion dollars, down 2.81 billion dollars from the end of the previous quarter.
As a result of repeated intensive investments in companies with “disruptive innovation,” the average annual investment return from 2014 to 2021 for the Arc Innovation ETF under the umbrella of the company rose to 39%, and a return rate of more than three times that of the S&P 500 during the same period was recorded.
Under such circumstances, the Wall Street Journal issued a report in 2022/12 stating that “the Ark Innovation ETF has fallen 63% since entering 2022 until now, and has fallen 78% from its peak in 2021/2.” Regarding poor management of ETFs under the company's umbrella, Mr. Wood defended his own investment strategy, saying “we have set an investment period of 5 years.”
Ark Investment portfolio top 10 (2022 4Q...

ChatGPT and Dall·E2 themselves are excellent AI models. However, looking back on past history, no matter how advanced they are in terms of technology, there is no doubt that companies that will catch up with OpenAI will appear one after another as time passes. However, even so, it seems that Microsoft values the “autonomy” of OpenAI and intends to strategically work on the “fruits” (research results) born from it into its own products.
The “additional investment on the scale of several billion dollars” announced in January 2023 seems to be an extension of the past two investments. There is no explanation of the investment scheme from Microsoft or OpenAI, but when various reports from overseas are synthesized, the investment scheme is as follows.
- Microsoft invested billions of dollars (up to $10 billion) over several years
- Microsoft will receive 75% of the profits generated by OpenAI until the return on investment is completed
- After the return on investment, Microsoft can acquire up to 49% of OpenAI's shares
In addition, OpenAI's various AI platforms have been ported to Microsoft's cloud platform “Azure”, and learning programs...

Where are Meta's growth opportunities?
ARPU in the Asia-Pacific region and elsewhere has been steadily increasing over the years, and Facebook penetration in these countries is still below 25%. If the population of Asia and Africa continues to increase, there is a possibility that ARPU in these regions will grow significantly.
Nonetheless, Meta must continue to invest heavily in research and development in order to continue to be a representative platform for social media.
Another growth factor is probably Reality Labs. In recent years, Meta has invested heavily in virtual reality and augmented reality hardware and software, such as virtual reality headsets such as Quest and online platforms such as Horizon World.
If this technology gets on track and becomes widespread, Meta can be a leader in this new economy and a cash-generating machine. Also, it is possible to re-establish its position as a “cool” enterprise that attracts young users. But will Reality Labs succeed? I still don't understand that.