The banks began to collapse earlier this year and the Federal Reserve started a backstop program to inject liquidity which of course has become the methadone treatment for our regional banking system.
The “emergency” lending facility is still at its highest level ever, with no signs of it winding down 🚨
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$
The “emergency” lending facility is still at its highest level ever, with no signs of it winding down 🚨
$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$
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$SPY ~ USA 10-year. Yields on 10-year USA Treasuries breached the psychological 5% threshold this morning (Oct 23, 2023) for the first time since 2007 when 2 Bear Sterns hedge funds went bankrupt which was the snowflake that started the 2008 GFC avalanche. $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ $SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average Trust (DIA.US)$ $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ $ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF (SQQQ.US)$
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1. Involvement in multiple wars around the world
2. Beginning of a new trade war with China
3. Record low oil inventories with $90 oil prices
4. CPI inflation back up to a 5-month high
5. Least affordable housing market in history
How is inflation supposed to hit 2%? $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$
2. Beginning of a new trade war with China
3. Record low oil inventories with $90 oil prices
4. CPI inflation back up to a 5-month high
5. Least affordable housing market in history
How is inflation supposed to hit 2%? $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$
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With about $7.5 Trillion of US Gov debt to be issued / refinanced in 2024, I think most of that debt will be issued at 2 years or less for many reasons. If we assume that is correct, and that Gov Debt demand can't keep up with supply then short term rates will continue higher and long term rates may spike even more (who wants a 30 year bond at 6% if you can get a 6 month note or money market at 7%?).
In this scenerio, Utility stocks ...
In this scenerio, Utility stocks ...
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Demand for vacation homes has plummeted, 47% below pre-pandemic levels...
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$
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Every single jobs report in 2023 has been revised down, per Peter Tarr,
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$
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$SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ lol yeah maybe after they hike 2-3 times
more this year remember the 3% fed fund rate map?
yet we are double that now
4.4% core inflation, is much higher than the fed thought it would be this late in the cycle
more this year remember the 3% fed fund rate map?
yet we are double that now
4.4% core inflation, is much higher than the fed thought it would be this late in the cycle
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