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MoffettNathanson is downgrading $Roku Inc (ROKU.US)$ to Sell from Neutral as it lowers its estimate for video advertising revenue.
It also cut its price target to $220 per share from $330, a little more than 20% below current levels.
Roku is down 3% before the bell.
"To better assess our video advertising estimates, we attempt to break out the Roku Channel from third party advertising revenues on the platform," Michael Nathanson writes in a note. "We benchmark the Roku Channel against AVOD competitors Pluto and Tubi, and estimate Roku's take of ad revenues from major AVOD services on its platform."
"However, we are left with a large and fast growing portion of unidentifiable ad revenues coming from the long tail of third party services on Roku," he says. "We believe viewership, and ad spending, will consolidate among the leading streaming services. As such, we are lowering our 2025 total video advertising estimate by -24% reflecting slower anticipated ad growth from the long tail of third party services on Roku."
He is lowering the overall revenue estimate for 2025 by 17%.
Roku will still need to keep investing in content and engineering resources to compete, he adds.
"We do not anticipate meaningful margin leverage in the out-years (GAAP EBITDA margins remaining in the low double digits over 2021-2025)," Nathanson says. "As such, Roku is trading at around 40x 2025E GAAP EBITDA, the highest among our Internet coverage group and around double the valuation multiples of $Snap Inc (SNAP.US)$, $Twitter (Delisted) (TWTR.US)$ and $Netflix (NFLX.US)$."
It also cut its price target to $220 per share from $330, a little more than 20% below current levels.
Roku is down 3% before the bell.
"To better assess our video advertising estimates, we attempt to break out the Roku Channel from third party advertising revenues on the platform," Michael Nathanson writes in a note. "We benchmark the Roku Channel against AVOD competitors Pluto and Tubi, and estimate Roku's take of ad revenues from major AVOD services on its platform."
"However, we are left with a large and fast growing portion of unidentifiable ad revenues coming from the long tail of third party services on Roku," he says. "We believe viewership, and ad spending, will consolidate among the leading streaming services. As such, we are lowering our 2025 total video advertising estimate by -24% reflecting slower anticipated ad growth from the long tail of third party services on Roku."
He is lowering the overall revenue estimate for 2025 by 17%.
Roku will still need to keep investing in content and engineering resources to compete, he adds.
"We do not anticipate meaningful margin leverage in the out-years (GAAP EBITDA margins remaining in the low double digits over 2021-2025)," Nathanson says. "As such, Roku is trading at around 40x 2025E GAAP EBITDA, the highest among our Internet coverage group and around double the valuation multiples of $Snap Inc (SNAP.US)$, $Twitter (Delisted) (TWTR.US)$ and $Netflix (NFLX.US)$."
![Roku stock cut to Sell at Moffett, which slashes price target to $220](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/1999849813173592739.jpg/thumb)
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Hi mooer,
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People are sharing their Daily Profit & Loss in moomoo community:...
Huat lah! Welcome to moomoo community!
Here in moomoo, traders from all over the world share personal investing experiences and concepts with new and old friends.
You can see in-depth investment reviews, daily profit & loss, trading disciplines, the processes for building a personal trading system and more!
Many interesting things are happening now, let me show you around!
Wanna see how everyone else is doing?
People are sharing their Daily Profit & Loss in moomoo community:...
![Welcome to moomoo community!](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/4000986053750892370.png/thumb)
![Welcome to moomoo community!](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/319531128515845753.png/thumb)
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