Besides loving Kamala’s public rally speeches, I do my best to stay objective and unbiased with my political view as a non-US resident on who will potentially win the market election based on quantitative and qualitative ‘market signals’:
Quantitative Signals
1. Betting sites - Trump wins (as Polymarket/Betfair/Kalshi/Smarket/Election Betting Odds have more bets for a Trump win)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/10/17/trumps-polymarket-odds-top-60-how-election-betting-markets-differ-from-polls/
Quantitative Signals
1. Betting sites - Trump wins (as Polymarket/Betfair/Kalshi/Smarket/Election Betting Odds have more bets for a Trump win)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/10/17/trumps-polymarket-odds-top-60-how-election-betting-markets-differ-from-polls/