EriktheRich
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The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China Semiconductor Industry Association, China Internet Association, and China Communications Enterprise Association jointly declared that U.S. chip products are no longer secure or reliable. They recommended Chinese companies exercise caution when purchasing U.S. chips in the future.
$ASML Holding (ASML.US)$ $SMIC (00981.HK)$ $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ $Alibaba (BABA.US)$ $TENCENT (00700.HK)$
$ASML Holding (ASML.US)$ $SMIC (00981.HK)$ $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ $Alibaba (BABA.US)$ $TENCENT (00700.HK)$
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$HSI Futures(JAN5) (HSImain.HK)$ after Trump wins, China hk has no hope already.
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TURNOVER ON SSE AND SZSE EXCEEDED 1 TRILLION YUAN FOR THE 18TH CONSECUTIVE TRADING DAY.
$SSE Composite Index (800146.HK)$ $SSE Composite Index (000001.SH)$ $Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF (ASHR.US)$ $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$
$SSE Composite Index (800146.HK)$ $SSE Composite Index (000001.SH)$ $Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF (ASHR.US)$ $Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$
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EriktheRich
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Should we Buy the dip, or clear the ship?
As for the sudden surge that happened today in Chinese assets, here is something that I collected from investors and analysts surrounding
Market Surge
Today, China's stock market saw a significant surge, driven by four key factors:
Policy: The People's Bank of China has reiterated its commitment to interest rate cuts and announced a substantial SFISF application of 200 billion yuan. They also emphas...
As for the sudden surge that happened today in Chinese assets, here is something that I collected from investors and analysts surrounding
Market Surge
Today, China's stock market saw a significant surge, driven by four key factors:
Policy: The People's Bank of China has reiterated its commitment to interest rate cuts and announced a substantial SFISF application of 200 billion yuan. They also emphas...
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EriktheRich
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The Chinese market has attracted increased attention in global markets, accompanied by rising volatility as more capital seeks to capitalize on potential opportunities largely driven by government measures. This environment led to a sharp rebound at the end of September, just before the National Holiday.
A specific example of this volatility: after two days of significant declines, the Chinese stock market rebounded...
A specific example of this volatility: after two days of significant declines, the Chinese stock market rebounded...
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Set a live reminder
$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ $Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$
Press briefing on China's fiscal policy and economy is scheduled for October 11 at 10:00 PM ET /October 12 at 10:00 AM SGT/October 12 at 1:00 PM AEDT. Subscribe to join the live NOW!
Finance Minister Lan Foan will discuss the topic of "Enhancing Counter-cyclical Adjustment of Fiscal Policy and Promoting High-quality Economic Development" and will be available to answer questions from ...
Press briefing on China's fiscal policy and economy is scheduled for October 11 at 10:00 PM ET /October 12 at 10:00 AM SGT/October 12 at 1:00 PM AEDT. Subscribe to join the live NOW!
Finance Minister Lan Foan will discuss the topic of "Enhancing Counter-cyclical Adjustment of Fiscal Policy and Promoting High-quality Economic Development" and will be available to answer questions from ...
Press briefing on China's fiscal policy and economy
Oct 12 10:00
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$SMIC (00981.HK)$
From a PE perspective, SMIC's valuation is definitely not cheap. However, for a company in a massive investment catch-up phase, with significant equipment depreciation and research and development expenses reducing profits, it is more appropriate to value using PB/PS ratios.
In the current situation of technological blockade, SMIC is the TSMC of the mainland, and for a long time, it is the only one. It is understandable to compare the valuation of A-shares to TSMC; in the context of the mainland dominated trend in the Hong Kong stock market, it is also reasonable to approach the valuation towards TSMC.
TSMC's reasonable valuation range over the past 10 years is approximately PS 7-13, and PB is roughly 4-8 times.
In 2024, the overall semiconductor market started to improve, with SMIC's growth rate in 2024 likely to be around 25%, generating approximately $7.5 billion in revenue; in 2025, growth could accelerate by another 25% to $10 billion, considering the intensity of SMIC's previous capacity expansion, it may be even higher.
Based on the 2025 revenue of 10 billion US dollars, the reasonable valuation range for Taiwan Semiconductor is 70-130 billion US dollars, with a P/S ratio of 7-13 times. The reasonable valuation for A shares is in the range of 500 billion to 1 trillion RMB. In a bullish market, the basic valuation could exceed 1 trillion RMB, while the market cap of Hong Kong stocks could exceed 600 billion Hong Kong dollars.
Regarding the impact of geopolitics, the technology blockade and sanctions by the USA have basically taken effect on SMIC, and any tactics that can be used essentially have no practical impact on SMIC; the domestic semiconductor equipment and materials sector has made rapid progress, from 2019 to 2020...
From a PE perspective, SMIC's valuation is definitely not cheap. However, for a company in a massive investment catch-up phase, with significant equipment depreciation and research and development expenses reducing profits, it is more appropriate to value using PB/PS ratios.
In the current situation of technological blockade, SMIC is the TSMC of the mainland, and for a long time, it is the only one. It is understandable to compare the valuation of A-shares to TSMC; in the context of the mainland dominated trend in the Hong Kong stock market, it is also reasonable to approach the valuation towards TSMC.
TSMC's reasonable valuation range over the past 10 years is approximately PS 7-13, and PB is roughly 4-8 times.
In 2024, the overall semiconductor market started to improve, with SMIC's growth rate in 2024 likely to be around 25%, generating approximately $7.5 billion in revenue; in 2025, growth could accelerate by another 25% to $10 billion, considering the intensity of SMIC's previous capacity expansion, it may be even higher.
Based on the 2025 revenue of 10 billion US dollars, the reasonable valuation range for Taiwan Semiconductor is 70-130 billion US dollars, with a P/S ratio of 7-13 times. The reasonable valuation for A shares is in the range of 500 billion to 1 trillion RMB. In a bullish market, the basic valuation could exceed 1 trillion RMB, while the market cap of Hong Kong stocks could exceed 600 billion Hong Kong dollars.
Regarding the impact of geopolitics, the technology blockade and sanctions by the USA have basically taken effect on SMIC, and any tactics that can be used essentially have no practical impact on SMIC; the domestic semiconductor equipment and materials sector has made rapid progress, from 2019 to 2020...
Translated
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