The 60-year Kondratiev cycle representing the macroeconomy is divided into 5 stages: recession, reinvestment, prosperity, overbuilding, and chaos. In the recession stage, the economy is sluggish, financial depression occurs, and consumer spending is weak. In the reinvestment stage, capital slowly recovers from hibernation, and new technologies begin to catalyze manufacturing. As society continues to recover, the pace of economic development gradually accelerates, leading to the prosperity stage. During the prosperity stage, when optimism reaches its peak, the overbuilding phase begins. During this phase, people's risk preferences become increasingly aggressive, stock prices soar, and csi commodity equity index prices rise. The subsequent chaos stage is characterized by financial speculative trading flooding the capital markets, and when excessively high asset prices undergo revaluation, financial bubbles burst, leading to the recurrence of a new economic cycle during the recession stage.
From 1982 to 1990, it was a period of warming reinvestment. From 1991 to 2005, it was the prosperity period of this cycle, and from 2005 to 2018, it was the overbuilding period. During this time, we experienced the financial crisis caused by the 2008 U.S. real estate market, but there was a rapid V-shaped rebound, as the potential of the technology explosion was still very abundant. Cloud computing, AI technology, and electric vehicles were all blue oceans at the time, in these vast value-added spaces. The lingering effects of the 20-year technology explosion can still steadily lead capital forward. From 2018 to 2025, it is the turning point from chaos to recession. This is where the Kondratiev theory enters the recession period, which is all derived from stagflation.