$XAU/USD (XAUUSD.CFD)$
XAUUSD H1
The last PCE inflation data before the September Fed rate decision was released on Friday evening, recording 2.6%, the same as the previous value, but better than the expected 2.7%. Due to the better-than-expected data release, the market reduced its expectations of a 50BP emergency rate cut by the Fed in September, leading to a strengthening US dollar. In the past three trading days, the dollar rebounded from the year's low of 100.5 to the current position of 101.8. Gold also followed the rise of the dollar, breaking downwards in the previous mentioned triangular convergence pattern, falling from a high of 2527 during the day to around 2494, but closing back above 2500. With only 16 days left before the rate decision, data released prior to the rate decision is particularly important. This week, the market is focusing on the last non-farm payroll data release before the rate decision. ADP data and the Fed's Beige Book on economic conditions will be released on Wednesday, and the most impactful non-farm payroll data for gold will be released on Friday. This will have a significant impact on the short-term trend of gold.
Technically, gold broke downward from the triangle convergence on Friday with the release of data. However, over the past ten trading days, the price of gold has been resisted five times near 2530 without breaking through, and has also been supported and rebounded five times near the low of 2493. Currently, gold is oscillating in the range of 2530-2493, having temporarily paused from the previous continuous uptrend...