$XAU/USD (XAUUSD.FX)$
XAUUSD H1
The final PCE inflation data before the September Fed rate decision was released on Friday night, recording 2.6%, the same as the previous value, but better than the expected 2.7%. Because of the better-than-expected data release, the market's expectation of a 50 basis point emergency rate cut by the Fed in September has decreased, and the US dollar has strengthened. Over the past three trading days, the dollar has rebounded from the year's low of 100.5 to its current position of 101.8. Gold also followed the rise of the dollar, breaking downward from the earlier mentioned triangle convergence trend, dropping from a high of 2527 to near 2494 during the day, but closing back above 2500. With only 16 days left before the rate decision countdown, the data released before the rate decision is particularly important. This week, the market's attention is focused on the last non-farm data release before the rate decision, with ADP data and the Fed's Beige Book on Wednesday, and the most impactful non-farm data on Friday. This will have a significant short-term impact on the gold trend.
Technically, gold broke downward from the triangle convergence on Friday with the release of data. However, over the past ten trading days, the price of gold has been resisted five times near 2530 without breaking through, and has also been supported and rebounded five times near the low of 2493. Currently, gold is oscillating in the range of 2530-2493, having temporarily paused from the previous continuous uptrend...

$XAU/USD (XAUUSD.FX)$
XAUUSD H4
The announcement of the last inflation report before the possible implementation of interest rate cuts in the United States is getting closer, and the market is becoming cautious, with both bulls and bears tugging. In 2022, in order to combat inflation, the United States took the lead in starting an interest rate hike cycle, forcing other major central banks to follow suit and begin raising interest rates. Now there is less than 20 days left until the next Federal Reserve interest rate decision, and according to CME data, there is a 34% chance of an emergency 50BP rate cut and a 66% chance of a soft landing rate cut of 25BP. Tonight will be the last announcement of core PCE price index inflation data before the September Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Similarly, last night the United States released two better-than-expected data, with initial jobless claims slightly better than expected and GDP growth revised to 3%, surpassing the market's expected 208%. In terms of geopolitics, Israel and Hamas have agreed to a temporary ceasefire to vaccinate children. The core PCE price index annual rate will be announced at 22:30 AEST tonight, which will have a significant impact on gold in the short term.
Technically, gold has ended its previous upward trend and started to consolidate. Gold rose to around 2525 in early trading, encountering resistance, and with a series of better-than-expected data from the United States, the US dollar continued to rise and gold fell, with the price falling to around 2503 and finding support, quickly rebounding to near its historical high. Currently, the range of 2529-2531 is a major resistance for gold's historical high...

$XAU/USD (XAUUSD.FX)$
Gold on bullish ascending triangle. 30/August/24. #XAUUD back to previous skewed triangle (A)(B)(C)(D)(E)(green) idea again. Long gold at 2510 +/- at wave (c)(yellow) of triangle,,, where 2510 +/- is a confluence zone of : 1) Trend Line 2) POC of Volume Profile.

$XAU/USD (XAUUSD.FX)$
XAUUSD H1
Last night, the US released a series of data. The initial value of S&P's global manufacturing PMI in August was 48 below the boom and dry line, a new low in 8 months. The service sector PMI recorded 55.2, which was higher than expected. Existing home sales increased for the first time in five months in July. In addition to the remarks made by Federal Reserve officials yesterday, the revised non-agricultural data did not change the view on policy. Interest rate cuts are expected to begin soon; the pace of interest rate cuts will be gradual. As long as there are no surprises in the data, it is necessary to start the process of cutting interest rates; the end of the easing cycle may keep the federal funds rate at about 3%; and the US unemployment rate may rise to slightly below 5%. The Federal Reserve's speech was gentle and gave feedback to the market that it would not cut interest rates by 50 BPs faster in September. This also caused the 50 BP rate cut expectations shown in CME data this morning to fall below 25% from 30% + yesterday. The US dollar index also rose as expectations of interest rate hikes and interest rate cuts weakened, rising from 101 to 101.5. The upward movement of the US dollar allowed the price of gold denominated in US dollars to decline. It declined from a high level of around 2515 to a minimum of 2471 during the day, and finally closed back above 2480.
On the technical side, yesterday morning's analysis and afternoon trading release all mentioned paying attention to gold's correction. After gold pulled back to the 2,500 position in early trading, it continued to decline in the evening in line with fundamental data, and quickly recovered at the 2480 position. Gold has now turned weak in the short term. Although it is still within the previous upward channel, the new...