$Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$ Earnings call live stream is coming up! Based on the recent performance of SMCI, I have made predictions for 3 scenarios:
Best-case scenario forecast
Probability: 30%
In the best-case scenario, SMCI can successfully turn the situation around by:
1. Quickly finding and cooperating with a new auditing firm, and rebuilding market confidence through improved financial transparency.
2. Strengthening governance structure to ensure the independence and compliance of management and the board, and improving internal controls.
3. Maintaining technological innovation in AI servers and liquid cooling technology, seizing current market demand, and continuing to expand market share.
As these measures rely on internal efforts, the cooperation of external audit institutions, and the stability of market demands, the likelihood is around 30%. This probability takes into account the significant impact of the current negative news on the company, but its technological advantage in the AI and high-performance server fields may still bring the company a turnaround opportunity.
Worst-case scenario prediction
Probability: 50%
In the worst case scenario, the risks faced by SMCI are as follows:
1. Failure to effectively rectify financial and governance issues, leading to further escalation of audit issues, potentially triggering in-depth investigations by regulatory authorities and more severe financial reviews.
2. Loss of confidence from customers and investors, potentially resulting in customers switching to competitors, leading to a decrease in company revenue and market share.
3. The continuous low stock price or further decline may lead to financing difficulties, affecting future business expansion and technology...

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SMCI  shares gapped down 30% to the lowest level since January after the IT solutions provider that sells liquid-cooling solutions to $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ said its auditor, Ernst & Young, ...

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$Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ and $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ are releasing their Q2 earnings on July 30 after the bell.
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