MomentumPython1337 : you have no idea what you're saying... just sounds like you're panicking deep inside

MomentumPython1337 : crowdstrike outage is actually good for amazon they have their own aws protection called aws shield they have very little to do with crowdstrike and their products

MomentumPython1337 : why bother explaining you're just going to ignore my replies anyway

MomentumPython1337 LivingYears : happy to help. i am adding on the dips AMZN is a pesky stock it tends to have these periods of weakness if you zoom out and check its history previously  there will be dips of several consecutive red days but the most important thing is after that consecutive red days it usually reclaims the previous high very quickly and then reaches new highs afterwards.
the main assumption is the market needs to be in a bull run now the SPY and QQQ are showing weakness it's closing below the ema21 that's bad for the short term but i need to remember that every year SPY has 3 x 5% pullbacks so this might just be a 5% pullback and the current pullback is almost 5% so let's see on Monday. part of the selloff is associated with uncertainty over biden dropping out or not and who will be the democratic candidate, investors hate this kind of lingering uncertainty they want certainty they priced in a trump win but now what happens next. and the global outage earlier might also be a factor i doubt it but it might be dampening sentiments a little bit.

MomentumPython1337 LivingYears : 3 months should be more than enough.
i bought 197.5C for today 3 weeks ago and i got fucked upside down

MomentumPython1337 OP : ok it is reclaiming it just as i type this shit

MomentumPython1337 OP 102183148 : i hope this pullback stops there because my main portfolio is down my moomoo is down basically every shit is down even the value ETFs they're down so it's a lot of short term pain
i think first of all biden needs to say that he's quitting the race he needs to stop being greedy and announce the next in line to run for president I don't know if it's Kamala harris or someone else but he needs to do it preferably during the weekend.
the 2nd of all is earnings.  next week we have googl reporting and many other companies reporting those need to not suck. if they're okay or excellent then people will relax and calm down and money will start flowing back again
and lastly trump needs to stop sayinf controversial shit like asking taiwan to pay for defence  or imposing tougher restrictions on trade with china. the market especially semi stocks hate shit like that. he needs to stick to other topics like building the wall. or he can talk about decreasing corporate tax rates and deregulating mergers and acquisitions because stocks especially big tech will love that

MomentumPython1337 OP DipHunter : nah crwd is already trading at premium relative to peers before this. the dip is completely justified in fact I'm surprised it's not more it should be 20% it needs to go back to 270 before i take a look at it again

MomentumPython1337 OP :

MomentumPython1337 OP : and this was published before the outage trying to explain that the stock is trading at a premium. before the outage when it had a spotless track record they said it's overvalued. i held shares since 2023 and even I started to feel its getting overvalued relative to peers and relative to earnings . sold 85% last week and 15% today.
now after the outage its reputation is down the drain so why people still want to buy this...? definitely needs to see more dips to get back to fairer valuations

MomentumPython1337 OP Salmon Klein : whole market is fearful because of trump's comments on taiwan and china and also the whole uncertainty because of rumors saying Biden very likely dropping out of the race. and also SPY and QQQ have run up a lot so people are taking profits and deciding what to invest in next. 2nd half of july is generally not a good period for stocks as well

MomentumPython1337 : the switching cost is there but look. you're a multibillion cybersec company and you let an engineer push a bug and not only that you let him deploy this bug to all devices worldwide.
i work in tech and this stuff doesn't just happen by chance. it's not just 1 guy's negligence. it is evidence of severe problems in the protocols in the company. it is evidence of incompetent managers and incompetent quality control measures. when you let one push affect so many devices it's just a big nono.
the reputational damage is done and it will be very hard to get it back.
don't get me wrong i have been a crwd bull for years but this is a breaking point for me to be honest.
i sold all my shares as I said elsewhere i sold 85% last week before the outage and 15% today after the outage. i have 0 shares now and i took profits i was sitting on triple digit gains.
I'm not touching this until at least the next earnings where we have better clarity what exaclty is the damage not only the litigation damage  but the damage to forward guidance because customer acquisition rates will go down and customer retention rates will go down.
at that point the stock price might also have tanked below 270 maybe even 220-250 and so it may again offer an attractive valuation at that point if the damage to forward guidance is not as bad as people think. then that valuation will be attractive again and I will reenter my long position.

MomentumPython1337 : it pains me to see some furus on fintwit (X) preaching crwd saying buy the dip or hodl without giving convincing reasons why. it really pains me to see that.

MomentumPython1337 : amazon already has their own protection service called amazon shield. it's not that hard to find replacement it's a matter of convenience and when push comes to shove people will do it. the moat for crwd is not wide imo it's just narrow if we go by morningstar moat levels: none, narrow, wide.

MomentumPython1337 Ken Griffin Charity : it's crazy what people can come up with these days.

MomentumPython1337 Ken Griffin Charity : they already have pentagon and a gazillion of defense research labs in the US to work on this stuff. and probably some of the defense companies like lockheed martin and so on might have R&D programs too. i agree with you that I don't see cybersec companies like CRWD taking on military ventures. i think CRWD is a done deal to be honest

MomentumPython1337 : I've been preaching it for weeks

MomentumPython1337 OP : if you look at recent lows every time it hit the trend line the next  few days is a nice rebound up. if you just trade with this trend you could make quite a lot of money

MomentumPython1337 OP : can't hold it. fell below again