$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$
ETF Strategies: One of the key strategies I employ is utilizing ETFs that track U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly long-term ones, as part of my portfolio. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) has been a critical element for managing volatility and interest rate risk. In times of economic uncertainty or when I expect interest rates to decline, I lean on TLT because its value tends to increase as rates drop. It’s a defensive play, all...

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$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$
When buying long-term government bonds, you need to consider whether you want to earn interest or price difference.
If you want to earn interest, then you should continue to stay put for now. If the expected inflation rate is 2%, and the dividend rate is greater than 2, your money will not depreciate.
If you want to earn price difference, it may not be achievable this year. In the current economic situation, with the inversion of short and long-term yields needing to reverse, if it is really confirmed that only two or three digits will be reduced by the end of the year, then the 2y-10y crossover point may be greater than 4.5. Now at 10-year 4.4%, how much further can TLT fall?
If you think the usa will not experience a soft landing, then now is the entry point. Think carefully, the yield curve has been inverted for over 20 months, with 46 points of inversion. Does the inverted yield curve no longer signal an economic recession?
In conclusion, buying long-term bonds for 20 years will definitely not result in losses, unless the usa perishes.

$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$
There is a very high short-term risk.
The three ways to correct the inversion of the 2-year and 10-year yield curve are:
1. Soft landing, inflation continues to cool, the Fed slowly cuts interest rates, and eventually US 2-year yields gradually decline while US 10-year yields gradually rise, eliminating the inverted yield curve. Afterwards, both 2-year and 10-year yields decline synchronously as inflation cools, which is short-term bearish for TLT but long-term bullish.
2. Hard landing, a sudden financial or real estate crisis, the Fed intervenes urgently to rescue the market, US 2-year yields quickly decline, eliminating the inverted yield curve, and TLT surges.
3. No landing, inflation does not cool down at all, and the economy does not decline either. Because the Fed does not want to continue raising interest rates to damage the economy, it can only abandon the 2% target and allow the inflation rate to stay above 3%. Interest rates and inflation both remain high for a long period of time. As a result, long-term bond rates soar, surpassing short-term bond rates, eliminating the inverted yield curve. Although TLT will not experience a sharp decline, it will not rise either because of no interest rate cuts, only offering a 3-4% dividend yield, lagging behind other investments in terms of ROI. However, with $32 trillion of debt and interest rates above 4%, how long can the US government sustain? I am skeptical and fear it will ultimately lead to the US government being unable to repay its high-interest debt. It will either go bankrupt or resort to unlimited monetary easing and rampant inflation. The possibility of the entire economy and finance collapsing to foot the bill is basically close to zero.
I believe the least likely scenario is the last one, sooner or later there will be an interest rate cut, so the long-term investment logic of TLT remains, but there may be headwinds in the short term. These two...