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$Apple (AAPL.US)$ A dive into virtual reality and augmented reality from Morgan Stanley takes a dip into the burgeoning "metaverse," and comes up with eight stocks that have "free upside options" from the simultaneously coalescing trends.
A multi-analyst research note concludes that AR/VR "is not a prerequisite for metaverse applications" - but it does make them "remarkably" more immersive.
The AR/VR combined market should be $100 billion in 2030 - and then grow fivefold from there to 2040, the firm says. And the company drawing the most attention to the metaverse is the one that changed its name in a show of focus: Facebook, now $Meta Platforms (FB.US)$ .
Over the past month the buzzword has surfaced in a wide number of earnings reports and reactions. That included $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$, where Wells Fargo sees a $10 billion incremental opportunity from its Omniverse; $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ , working on a more virtual version of its Teams product; $Unity Software (U.US)$, touting its Unity Reflect for real-time 3D; $Tencent (TCEHY.US)$, with $1 billion to spend pursuing metaverse goals; $Roblox (RBLX.US)$, calling itself "shepherds of the metaverse"; $Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO.US)$ , saying it's "probably the biggest metaverse company on earth"; and several others.
$Roblox (RBLX.US)$, $Meta Platforms (FB.US)$ and $Unity Software (U.US)$ have been among the tickers most added to platforms on moomoo over the past week, with Unity seeing a spike in interest on the platform.
"The real catalyst, in our view, comes if or when Apple enters the space," Morgan Stanley says.
Virtual reality is a "proven" technology, with the business-to-consumer market in the "early innings of exponential growth." The story is clearer here: Facebook/Meta has a lead in B2C with its Oculus Quest 2 headset (with the Oculus brand soon to give way to Meta), and Asia is currently dominated by Pico, recently acquired by TikTok parent ByteDance (BDNCE).
"Long-term, though, market shares look set to shift rapidly," Morgan Stanley says, with the product's form factor still the key bottleneck.
"We foresee a base-case VR hardware market size of $60 billion by 2030 and more than $250 billion by 2040 with the lion's share in B2C where the 'killer apps' are beginning to emerge," the firm says.
Augmented reality is further behind VR, though - and consumer AR is even further behind enterprise applications.
"The industry has been a sinkhole of capital with a number of high profile false-starts," amid an enormous technical challenge in having a thin, light pair of glasses include "day-long battery, 5G, compute, cameras, lidar, projectors and wave guide lenses."
The road is longer but the ceiling may be higher there, the firm says. The jury's out on which technology will win, but all conversations are aggregating around two issues: The consumer addressable market for AR includes anyone with a smartphone (in the billions of units), far larger than that of VR; and an Apple entry into smart eyewear would be "the game changer" for everyone.
Apple's patent portfolio is starting to reflect the period prior to its launch of the Apple Watch, the firm says, and its entry would collide with Meta/Facebook's Ray-Ban team-up for smart Wayfarer Stories frames.
Meanwhile the firm points to a Harris Poll study noting that in something of an outlier, 35% would make Apple their first choice of a company from which to buy AR/VR devices, well ahead of 20% making $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$ their first choice. Despite some technical prowess and early leadership in the Quest 2 headset, Meta Platforms is the first choice of only 6% of potential AR/VR buyers.
A deep look at the entire AR/VR supply chain comes up with eight names that have "free" upside from the potentially world-changing developments, Morgan Stanley says: Entain, EssilorLuxottica, Samsung SDI, TeamViewer, Ubisoft, Universal Music, Vodafone, and Xiaomi.
$ENTAIN PLC UNSPON ADS ECH REP 1 ORD SHS (GMVHY.US)$ expects its opportunity from interactive experiences is $20 billion-plus by 2030 or so - small compared to its opportunity from core gambling in the U.S., core and new regulated markets, but a substantial multiple of current online revenues. Ray-Ban parent $ESSILORLUXOTTICA UNSPON ADR EACH REP 0.5 ORD SHS (ESLOY.US)$ moves into wearables and its Facebook/Meta team-up have been "largely disregarded" by the market, but could play a long-term growth role, Morgan Stanley says.
For $SAMSUNG EL 144 (SSNGY.US)$ Samsung SDI, a currently low 10% of its Electronic materials revenue is coming from OLED materials, and it's the main supplier to Samsung Display; SDI also owns a 15% stake in Samsung Display. On $TEAMVIEWER SE UNSPON ADS EACH REP 0.5 ORD SHS (TMVWY.US)$, investors are focusing on the core remote connectivity, with discussion more "limited" on emerging business lines like AR.
$UBISOFT ENTERTAINMENT UNSP ADR EACH REPR 1/5 ORD (UBSFY.US)$ annual report is "thin" on details for AR/VR and nonfungible tokens (NFT), but the company's Entrepreneur Lab has shown "consistent foresight and selective partnerships." Universal Music could benefit as virtual platforms promise a "substantial new revenue and profit pool" for those who own music rights; a base case shows Universal Music's "new" streaming revenues growing at a 25% compound annual rate to €3 billion by 2030, with the bull case at 32% CAGR to €5 billion.
$Vodafone (VOD.US)$ has underperformed the market, but there's "considerable strategic optionality," and killer AR/VR apps could boost volume growth which in turn could goose revenue growth rates from the low single digits. And Morgan Stanley believes investors haven't given any valuation to $Xiaomi Corp. Unsponsored ADR Class B (XIACY.US)$ AR/VR exposure. Those products will likely move into the company's "AIoT" line, which the firm expects will grow at a CAGR of 19% to 114 billion yuan by 2023 even without the AR/VR products.

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