$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ Last night, the pre-market trading in the U.S. fell due to the suggestion of the hawkish king to continue raising terminal interest rates. Technology stocks generally opened lower, with Alibaba's performance also down 3% at the opening. After the opening, Alibaba traded sideways at V, pulling up by 10%+ and closing with an 8% increase. Chinese concept stocks surged, dragging the Nasdaq along. Towards the closing, Bank of America lowered building loan rates by 60 basis points, causing the Nasdaq to continue to rebound. However, it still lacked the strength of Chinese concept stocks. The upward movement of the Nasdaq was mainly driven by Chinese concept stocks, while local technology stocks there still opened lower. If the Nasdaq falls below yesterday's low point today, the future outlook remains weak. Moving to the Hong Kong stock market, even though half of the short positions were closed/reduced yesterday, some individual short positions remain. Today opened 350 points higher, getting ready to form the appearance of the 4th wave heading towards 19,000. Personally, I believe this wave will diverge, with limited upside potential. Short-term investors still need to actively close the remaining short positions. It's expected to experience a slight pullback after the opening, which can be closed during the pullback. Short-term investors can turn around and continue to go long until crossing below 17,700 again to form a top/sideways movement. Note that starting from yesterday it's already a small position strategy, for the medium term, continue to maintain locked positions. The future is definitely a sideways shake, slowly forming a wave top for short-term trades with small positions, supporting level for the day is 18,200, resistance level is 18,500. $TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK)$ $TENCENT (00700.HK)$

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ What's been happening recently? The high costs have led to a significant decline in net income, with Nvidia's net income in the third quarter amounting to only 0.68 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 72%.
Some investors have calculated the valuation based on Nvidia's net income in the past four quarters and have determined that the dynamic PE ratio is 66 times, believing that there is a serious bubble.
This valuation method is completely wrong. For cyclical stocks, calculating the PE ratio during the industry downturn can appear unusually high, and this downturn is only temporary. Therefore, investors should not be overly concerned about Nvidia's declining net income.
Returning to the guidance for the fourth quarter, management expects revenue to be 6 billion US dollars, with a fluctuation range of 2%, and the predicted median is slightly lower than the market's expected 6.09 billion.
The good news is that the gross margin guidance for the fourth quarter is 63.2%, significantly higher than the past two quarters.
And at the earnings call, management believes that after the fourth quarter, the channel inventory of gaming products is expected to return to normal levels, and revenue is expected to increase sequentially.
This verifies the analysts' speculation about the peak of inventory in the third quarter. Based on Nvidia's performance in the semiconductor downturn cycle in 2018, once inventory starts to decline, the stock price is expected to bottom out: considering the possibility of a global economic recession after the Fed raises interest rates, the PC market in 2023 is currently predicted to decline by 5-10%. Therefore, after passing the darkest moment, it will still take time for the semiconductor industry to recover and Nvidia may have a difficult performance during this period.
Perhaps Berkshire Hathaway's large-scale holdings of Taiwan Semiconductor in the third quarter also indicate a belief that the third quarter is the bottom of the semiconductor...

$Meta Platforms (META.US)$ The high expenses resulted in a significant decline in net income, with Nvidia's net income in the third quarter only reaching 0.68 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 72%.
Based on Nvidia's net income in the past four quarters, some investors calculated the dynamic PE ratio to be 66 times, and based on this, they believe that there is a serious bubble.
This valuation method is completely wrong. For cyclical stocks, calculating the PE ratio during a downturn in the industry will appear abnormally high. However, this downturn is only a temporary phenomenon, so investors do not need to worry about Nvidia's declining net income.
Turning to the guidance for the fourth quarter, management expects revenue to be $6 billion, with a fluctuation of 2% above or below. The forecasted midpoint is slightly lower than the market's expected $6.09 billion.
The good news is that the gross margin guidance for the fourth quarter is 63.2%, significantly higher than the past two quarters.
And at the earnings call, management believes that after the end of the fourth quarter, the channel inventory of gaming products is expected to return to normal levels, and revenue is expected to increase sequentially.
This confirms analysts' speculation that inventory peaked in the third quarter. Based on Nvidia's performance during the semiconductor downturn in 2018, once inventory starts to decline, the stock price is expected to bottom out. Considering the possibility of a global economic downturn after the Fed's interest rate hikes, the PC market in 2023 is forecasted to decline by 5%-10%. Therefore, semiconductors will take time to recover and Nvidia may have a difficult time performing during this period.
Perhaps Berkshire Hathaway's heavy buying of Taiwan Semiconductor in the third quarter means that they also believe that the third quarter was the semiconductor's lowest point...

$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ Alphabet's stock has reached a once-in-a-decade buying opportunity.
The trading price of technology stocks is below the market price.
The stock market may fluctuate, but the opportunities it brings to investors can generate lifelong returns. Take Alphabet (GOOG 2.80%) (GOOGL 2.86%) as an example. The stock has fallen more than 35% from its historical high, but its business is going through a cyclical experience.
Investors need to be willing to seize these huge opportunities, as the impact of stock recovery on investment portfolios is impressive. The market is full of opportunities, and Alphabet is one of the top stocks.
Normal business cycles.
Companies that make money from advertising naturally are affected by a broader business cycle. When the economy slows down and businesses tighten spending, advertising budgets are one of the first areas to be cut, mainly because reducing expenses is easy compared to canceling projects or layoffs. Alphabet generates nearly 80% of its revenue from advertising, and is therefore significantly affected by this cycle.
This trend was reflected in Alphabet's third-quarter earnings report: its advertising revenue only grew by 2.5%. YouTube took a step back in the advertising field, with a YoY decrease of 1.9% in revenue. However, Google search's advertising sales increased by 4.3%.
Although these advertising growth levels are not as strong as investors would like to see, they are still better than many of Alphabet's advertising peers...

$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$ Entering November, the Hang Seng Index has rebounded by 24%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index has risen by 32%. According to China's brokerage reports, it is generally believed that when the market's key index rises by more than 20% from its recent low point, it is considered to have entered a "technical bull market".
In light of this, it seems that the Hong Kong stock market, which has experienced continuous and fierce sell-offs, has entered a "technical bull market." In addition, according to data from Wind, as of the close on November 14th, the total market value of the 30 constituent stocks of the Hang Seng Tech Index has rebounded to 8.433 trillion Hong Kong dollars, with a cumulative increase of over 1600 billion Hong Kong dollars since November.
For most investors, the most intuitive proof of the bullish Hong Kong stock market is the continuous inflow of southbound funds since this year, especially the uninterrupted net inflow for more than 20 consecutive trading days recently, which has strengthened the bullish expectations. Recently, there has been a continuous large influx of southbound funds, obviously with the intention of bottom fishing for leading companies in industries such as internet, pharmaceuticals, and new energy autos. $KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$ $BABA-W (09988.HK)$

$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$ It is worth noting that in the past two weeks, most global stock markets have experienced positive growth, with the Hang Seng Index significantly leading the global stock market. Fangzheng Securities analyst Yan Xiang believes that a review of the market trends of major stock indices after several major stock market crashes since 1970 will reveal that the Hang Seng Index has experienced relatively large declines in each major crash, but also exhibited stronger rebounds after the crashes, especially in the mid-term period of three to six months, demonstrating a high level of resilience. Yan Xiang believes that industries with high growth attributes in the Hang Seng Index, such as information technology and medical care, have consistently ranked high in terms of increases during each market reversal. Three months following the end of the major crash in 2000, the information technology industry in the Hang Seng Index saw an increase of 39%, ranking third among 33 industry indices in the Hang Seng Index, A-share market, and the US stock market; in the three months following the end of the major crash in 2008, the information technology industry in the Hang Seng Index saw an increase of 31%, also ranking third; in the three months following the end of the major crash in 2020, the medical care industry in the Hang Seng Index saw an increase of 43%, ranking fifth. The latest report from Jinglin Asset Management indicates that, due to short-term liquidity issues compounded by the waning confidence of foreign investors, some leading companies in certain industries have experienced a rare concentrated decline, with their market values changing by nearly 40% within two months. The current valuation levels can be described as remarkably undervalued, especially among overseas-listed Chinese companies, where the market values of some companies have dropped to levels that make them highly suitable for privatization.
Jinglin also stated that they have seen many companies in the portfolio continuously repurchasing their own stocks using their net cash. As long as these companies have the ability to continue generating strong net cash flow, if external investors do not buy, the listed companies will continue to buy back more shares, thereby increasing the earnings per share for the remaining shareholders. "Therefore, besides continuously reviewing the fundamentals of these companies in the portfolio, the best course of action is to take advantage of the extreme market sentiment and liquidity crisis-induced extreme prices to make the portfolio more concentrated, and await the subsequent valuation recovery."

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Michael J. Wilson, the “biggest short on Wall Street,” firmly supports the rebound in US stocks, saying that S&P may be pushed up to 4,300 points, but it still leaves a “retreat” for himself. He said that if it fails to maintain the 200-day moving average, the rebound will not be possible. After the US CPI data was released on Thursday, “Wall Street's biggest short” Michael J. Wilson continued to bullish on US stocks, stressing that this wave of rebound is not over. Starting a month ago, his name “Wall Street's biggest short” may have become a thing of the past.
Wilson is one of the most famous bearish people on Wall Street. He accurately predicted the collapse of US stocks this year, but starting October 17, Wilson began to strongly support the “technical” rebound in US stocks. He wrote in his report that the S&P 500 index has fallen 25% this year and is testing the “important support bottom” of the 200-day moving average. This may trigger a technical rebound. It is speculated that the S&P 500 index may rise to 4150 points.
Less than a month later, on November 11, in a media interview after the release of the US CPI data that fell short of expectations, Wilson said that once the S&P 500 breaks through the 200-day moving average (currently around 4081 points), it may push the rebound to 4,300 points, higher than the 4150 he had previously predicted. Wilson said:
I don't think the current rebound is over yet, and the current market will continue for a long time, so I may feel like...

$Apple (AAPL.US)$ A stock market crash is like a test for stocks. When the market plunges, your individual stock price may experience a slight decline. Obviously, institutions are working together to prevent it from falling, so stocks like this can be held with confidence, and there will definitely be gains. If the market crashes and your stock plummets significantly, then the next day the market rises, it is very likely that the main players are taking advantage of the market downturn to clean up, which indicates a good stock. You can buy such stocks when the market is falling, sell when the market rises, and then sell again.

$Meta Platforms (META.US)$As the economy is poor, large layoffs can be used as a short-term boon for meta. What we are comparing now is not whether the company can make more money than expected, but which one will save money. Everyone is saving money, and meta is even cheaper than most companies. Just like everyone wears cotton-padded jackets and big underpants in the cold winter, meta wears a big V-collar miniskirt and immediately stands out from the crowd. Meta layoffs are officially announced: a total of more than 11000, accounting for about 13% of the company's total employees. This is the first round of mass layoffs in the social media giant's history.
On Wednesday, local time, Meta CEO Zuckerberg confirmed the scale of the overall layoffs, accounting for about 13% of the total number of employees, bringing the total to 11000. The company will also extend the hiring freeze into the first quarter.