Hey, mooers!
Were you tuned into our "Invest with Sarge" livestream which demystifies the art of trending stocks? If not, no worries — we've got a balanced recap to keep you in the loop and ready to tackle the market trends like a pro!
Insights into Trending Stocks
In our recent session, Sarge explored the dynamics of trending stocks such as $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ and $Tesla (TSLA.US)$. These stocks often gain significant attention and can present opportunitie...

$SMIC (00981.HK)$ Are you not clear about the situation? The country allocated 10 billion for the development of ai. Buy it now, what are you waiting for? Go buy nvidia, taiwan semiconductor, tmd. When Trump takes office, it will collapse instantly.

$SMIC (00981.HK)$ China Finance Ministry will be having a briefing on this Saturday,10am.. Huat Arx

$SMIC (00981.HK)$
From a PE perspective, SMIC's valuation is definitely not cheap. However, for a company in a massive investment catch-up phase, with significant equipment depreciation and research and development expenses reducing profits, it is more appropriate to value using PB/PS ratios.
In the current situation of technological blockade, SMIC is the TSMC of the mainland, and for a long time, it is the only one. It is understandable to compare the valuation of A-shares to TSMC; in the context of the mainland dominated trend in the Hong Kong stock market, it is also reasonable to approach the valuation towards TSMC.
TSMC's reasonable valuation range over the past 10 years is approximately PS 7-13, and PB is roughly 4-8 times.
In 2024, the overall semiconductor market started to improve, with SMIC's growth rate in 2024 likely to be around 25%, generating approximately $7.5 billion in revenue; in 2025, growth could accelerate by another 25% to $10 billion, considering the intensity of SMIC's previous capacity expansion, it may be even higher.
Based on the 2025 revenue of 10 billion US dollars, the reasonable valuation range for Taiwan Semiconductor is 70-130 billion US dollars, with a P/S ratio of 7-13 times. The reasonable valuation for A shares is in the range of 500 billion to 1 trillion RMB. In a bullish market, the basic valuation could exceed 1 trillion RMB, while the market cap of Hong Kong stocks could exceed 600 billion Hong Kong dollars.
Regarding the impact of geopolitics, the technology blockade and sanctions by the USA have basically taken effect on SMIC, and any tactics that can be used essentially have no practical impact on SMIC; the domestic semiconductor equipment and materials sector has made rapid progress, from 2019 to 2020...