- The September CPI report revealed a 0.3% increase in the US core CPI (excluding food and energy costs) last month. As such, swap contracts increased the odds of another 25bp Fed hike to about 40% compared to around 30% on Wednesday. Moreover, it showcased imbalanced disinflation, with goods sector prices performing well while service sector disinflation has stalled. The Israel-Hamas conflict poses a significant risk of another Fed rate hike.
-  Initial...

MACRO
Fed Officials Head Toward Another Pause After Bond Yields Surge
In a week jam-packed with speeches from US central bank officials, Fed Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said policy is restrictive enough to lower prices to the 2% goal. Meantime, Governor Christopher Waller noted the Fed is determined to bring inflation back to its target in a speech that mostly avoided the current state of markets or m...