$YZJ Shipbldg SGD (BS6.SG)$ To quantitatively assess the probability of the USTR proposal being implemented, Bayesian analysis can be used in conjunction with Historical Data, political environment, and Industry impact for an Algo estimate.

1. Analysis of key influencing factors.
(1) Historical Approval Rate (𝑃(Pass Policy | Submit Proposal))
• Based on Historical Data, trade sanction proposals involving China usually have a low overall implementation rate, but some measures may be enforced:
o 2018 Trump Tariffs (Section 301): Some high tariff policies were successfully implemented.
o 2023 Electric Vehicles Subsidy Investigation: The USA's subsidies for Chinese electric vehicles are still under discussion and have not yet formed a comprehensive ban.
In 2024, the USA's Marine Transportation review of China is currently in the investigation phase, and sanctions have not been implemented immediately.
• Assumed base probability: 30% (that is, there is a 30% chance that past similar sanction policies have been partially implemented).
(2) Political & Economic Environment (𝑃(policy approval | political pressure))
• In the 2024 USA election year, the Democratic government tends to take a hardline approach towards China to secure votes.
• The escalation of the trade war may lead to inverse costs:
o It affects USA importers and shipping companies, which may face strong opposition from the Industry.
o Inflation risk: Additional port fees may lead to a decline in the competitiveness of USA product exports, and Congress may adjust policies.
• Adjustment probability: 25% (i.e., the political impact may lower the probability of policy implementation).
(3) Industry Reaction (𝑃(Policy Approval|Industry Impact))
• Global shipping...

$YZJ Shipbldg SGD (BS6.SG)$ Assess whether the stock price of YZJ Shipbldg SGD (BS6.SI) will rebound, when it will rebound, and by how much.
To assess whether the stock price of YZJ Shipbldg SGD (BS6.SI) listed on SGX will rebound, as well as the potential timing and magnitude, an analysis will be conducted on the current stock price performance, the USA's Section 301 investigation, the impact of proposals from the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) concerning China's Marine Transportation and shipbuilding Industry, and broader market dynamics. This analysis integrates screenshot data provided by Yahoo Finance and related supporting documents to form a comprehensive viewpoint.
 
Current Stocks performance
扬子江船业（BS6.SI）是中国主要的造船企业之一，在新交所上市。近期，该公司股价出现大幅下跌。截至最新数据（2025年2月11日，下午4:42 GMT+8），股价为2.420新元，相比前一日收盘价2.680新元下跌9.701%（0.260新元）。从盘中数据来看，股价最低跌至2.300新元，随后部分回升至2.430新元（下午4:13 GMT+8），同时交易量异常高（134,829,600股，远超平均交易量23,795,374股）。过去52周的股价区间为1.680新元至3.320新元，分析师的1年目标价为3.48新元，表明尽管目前处于跌势，但仍有上涨空间。
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$YZJ Shipbldg SGD (BS6.SG)$ Based on the analysis of the provided information, the evaluation of Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (BS6.SI) stock price rebound potential is as follows:
 
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### **Rebound Likelihood**: **High**  
**Key Drivers**:  
1. **Low Probability of Full USTR Proposal Enactment** (3.75%):**  
  - The strictest measures (e.g., $1.5M per port call for Chinese-built ships) are unlikely to pass due to industry opposition, political risks, and global supply chain dependencies. Partial adjustments...

$YZJ Shipbldg SGD (BS6.SG)$ To quantitatively assess the probability of the USTR proposal being implemented, Bayesian analysis can be used in conjunction with Historical Data, political environment, and Industry impact for an Algo estimate.

1. Analysis of key influencing factors.
(1) Historical Approval Rate (𝑃(Pass Policy | Submit Proposal))
• Based on Historical Data, trade sanction proposals involving China usually have a low overall implementation rate, but some measures may be enforced:
o 2018 Trump Tariffs (Section 301): Some high tariff policies were successfully implemented.
o 2023 Electric Vehicles Subsidy Investigation: The USA's subsidies for Chinese electric vehicles are still under discussion and have not yet formed a comprehensive ban.
In 2024, the USA's Marine Transportation review of China is currently in the investigation phase, and sanctions have not been implemented immediately.
• Assumed base probability: 30% (that is, there is a 30% chance that past similar sanction policies have been partially implemented).
(2) Political & Economic Environment (𝑃(policy approval | political pressure))
• In the 2024 USA election year, the Democratic government tends to take a hardline approach towards China to secure votes.
• The escalation of the trade war may lead to inverse costs:
o It affects USA importers and shipping companies, which may face strong opposition from the Industry.
o Inflation risk: Additional port fees may lead to a decline in the competitiveness of USA product exports, and Congress may adjust policies.
• Adjustment probability: 25% (i.e., the political impact may lower the probability of policy implementation).
(3) Industry Reaction (𝑃(Policy Approval|Industry Impact))
• ...