Data shows a possible sharp drop in December. Don't get too excited about the soaring palm oil prices.
(Kuala Lumpur, 12th) Despite the recent surge in palm oil prices to over RM 5000 per ton, motivating some investment banks to be bullish on the prospects of planting industry stocks, some brokerages still view the palm oil outlook cautiously and point out that palm oil prices may significantly decline by the end of this year, hence temporarily maintaining a 'neutral' rating.
Datuk Securities analyst pointed out that palm oil prices have now exceeded RM 5000 per ton, about 15% higher than last month, possibly due to reduced supply and trade tensions between China and the USA.
Palm oil production declined due to seasonal factors, coupled with inventory declines and Indonesia's implementation of a higher proportion of B40 biodiesel mandates next year, the market expects palm oil supply to decrease, pushing up prices.
At the same time, the analyst estimated that China may panic buy soybeans before Trump is re-elected as President of the USA and increases tariffs on Chinese goods, which may have led to the recent rise in palm oil prices.
However, we believe that the potential trade friction between China and the USA in the future months will not significantly affect China's soybean import volume. During Trump's previous term in office, the policy of taxing China took 6 months from announcement to implementation, so any new related policies will only have an impact next year.
Significant decline in exports in early November.
He also cited data from Intertek and Amspec, showing that our country's palm oil exports in the first ten days of November dropped significantly by around 15% compared to the previous month, indicating that...