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大智若愚 Male ID: 103909473
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    $Nasdaq Composite Index(.IXIC.US)$ Over this period of time, there have been more and more signs that a watershed in interest rate hikes is about to become apparent. Under such circumstances, large-scale layoffs by enterprises have become inevitable.
    Last weekend, Musk began a second wave of layoffs on Twitter, firing 80% of Twitter contract workers.
    This is not a “trio of fire” after a new official takes office. The trend of accelerated layoffs and rising unemployment in the US is already clearly on the rise.
    How widespread is it? except $Apple(AAPL.US)$   $Amazon(AMZN.US)$ Technology giants are laying off employees, etc., and two industry giants, Disney (DIS.US) and GlobalFoundries (GFS.US), have also implemented recruitment freezes and are preparing to lay off employees.
    Not only that, but Wall Street is also beginning to wield a sharp knife of layoffs.
    Major banks such as $Citigroup (C.US) $$Goldman Sachs (GS.US) $ have joined the latest corporate layoffs list.
    In fact, the US unemployment rate began to rise above expectations in October. According to data from the US Department of Labor, the US unemployment rate rose to 3.7% in October, up 0.2% from the previous month, and the number of unemployed directly rose to 6.1 million.
    The wave of layoffs has led to a rise in the unemployment rate, even including a peak in the economic cycle. This is all part of the Fed's plan.
    I want to say that these signals may be beneficial to the company's stock price in the short term, but from a macro market perspective, in the long run...
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    The wave of layoffs in the US has begun
    Video streaming giant Netflix is fully betting on the advertising business, and analysts say it can help it get through difficult times. Under pressure this year, video streaming giants $Netflix(NFLX.US)$ The stock price is trying to make a comeback after the collapse. Netflix's stock price has fallen by about 75% from its highest point to its lowest point, and has now risen by more than 55% from its lowest point of around $163 per share. Although Netflix's low-cost, ad-based subscription service will definitely change the company's development status as the streaming industry enters a new state of development, I do think some of the concerns about the company have been exaggerated. In any case, analysts and investors are anxious to see how this rating of low-priced subscriptions with ads and high-priced services without ads will affect Netflix's financial performance at a time when the US economy may be in recession.Netflix enters the advertising market or helps it overcome difficultiesGiven the loss of subscribers this year, I think Netflix's decision to accept ads may help it achieve a significant recovery, as the macroeconomic turmoil seems to be getting closer to people. At the end of the day, Netflix still has strong content and channels. Despite increased competition in recent years, this streaming pioneer still has many popular TV shows that will definitely be a topic of discussion after dinner. Whether it's “The Watcher” or the latest season of “Love is Blind,” there's always something fascinating about Netflix. Netflix's subscribers are weak, partly because...
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    $Hang Seng Index(800000.HK)$ The perpetual index is at this year's low of 14597 and unwittingly rebounded 2771 points. The US CPI data is better than expected, starting to see a gradual decline. The market has again suggested that the bearskin has appeared, or whether a new cowboy is born is uncertain. Whether the bull market returns, let's see the trend in December.
    The United States plays financial instruments and is very good at it. With the CPI data, a violent surge of 1200 points is coming. Hang on to the advantage, playing the same game last Friday exploded 1244 points, and it was not enough to kill the bear friends. Look at it now in November, and it's clear that your friends have won. After a surge in violence last Friday, or into the final stretch of this rebound. It is expected that 17700 will begin to enter the resistance zone, while the 18100 to 18200 zone is the maximum resistance zone for this rebound wave. You ask me if there is any chance of a rise in the stock market. At the time, there is no significant favorable news coordination. If you go up again, look at the 18500-18700 area. Of course, you're asking me now. I've been looking at the map for a while, as the tech majors tell you.
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    November is the big bounce, will the rebound target go to? Is it a rebound or is the bear market over?
    $Apple(AAPL.US)$
    In the few weeks that Musk joined Twitter, judging from Musk's entrepreneurial experience, from “bloodwashing” executives, violent layoffs, and the launch of the “Blue V certification” user account, he has always been a “torturous person.”
    From early Zip2 and PayPal, to later Everdream, Tesla, and DeepMind, start a business—sell—then start a business,Relying on the money earned from the previous project to feed the next “golden beast,” Musk played this routine very well.
    The same is true of Twitter's acquisition this time. After completing the $44 billion acquisition, Musk sold Tesla shares worth 3.95 billion US dollars.Tesla, which makes the most money, has become Musk's cash cow in all of his investment projects.
    Musk who “loves to toss”
    In the few weeks that Musk joined Twitter, a series of “thunder methods”, from “bloodwashing” executives, violent layoffs, and the launch of “Blue V certification” user accounts, a series of “thunder methods” completed what others might have done for a year.
    Judging from Musk's entrepreneurial experience, he has always been a “torturous person.”
    His first pot of money came from Zip2, a corporate information website he founded with his older brother (similar to the corporate online yellow pages). The initial capital was 20,000 US dollars funded by his father. Although in 1996, with the support of venture capital, Zip2 ushered in business expansion and turned a loss into a profit, differences with investors in the direction of business eventually led to Musk's departure.
    1999 Zip...
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    $Tesla(TSLA.US)$ 特斯拉的投资者肯定对这笔交易感到愤怒。
    其一,它把埃隆的注意力从特斯拉身上移开。
    第二,它迫使埃隆出售特斯拉。
    第三,如果推特无法支撑其现金流,埃隆很可能将不得不继续出售特斯拉来为推特融资。
    推特的债务偿还数额巨大,埃隆将不得不继续出售特斯拉来为其融资
    如果广告商继续撤资,他将不得不继续抛售所持特斯拉股票。
    他用手中持有的特斯拉股票借钱收购了Twitter。如果特斯拉下跌,他将不得不提供更多抵押品,否则将被要求追加保证金。
    埃隆可能不知道如何经营一家社交媒体公司
    埃隆似乎越来越不知道如何经营一家社交媒体公司。例如,他要求改变完全基于他的意见,而不是运行A/B测试来量化改变。
    马斯克还需要继续出售特斯拉以弥补推特的损失吗?  $Twitter (Delisted)(TWTR.US)$
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    $Microsoft(MSFT.US)$ 科技行业的高增长已经结束,也许不会再回来,微软这种高pe的公司还能跌50%。按当前的利率,微软的增长,微软的价值在100刀以内,可能50到70刀,甚至更低。也许你会说宏观环境一定会改善,我的观点是接下来的几年可能是越来越艰难,好日子可能永远过去了。科技股的春天也许还会来,但是我也许已经不在了。
    $Hang Seng TECH Index(800700.HK)$ 大家晚上好,又到了复盘时间。最近国内股市涨势喜人,虽然手里没有多少筹码,但作为一个空头我觉得还是应该暂时保持沉默,多观察,少说话。不过今晚是美股非常重要的时间节点,于情于理都应该写一篇复盘。今天就来聊聊近期有没有值得操作的机会。
    【美股市场】
    近期美股的格局比较清晰,本月“月考”几门科目放榜的时间错开了,FOMC和非农在前,CPI数据要明天盘前再公布,这中间的一段时间就留给美股反弹。而近期盘面延续了$道琼斯指数(.DJI.US)$$ 强,  $Nasdaq Composite Index(.IXIC.US)$  弱的格局,而且相信这种格局还会继续一段时间,直到纳指几个大的成分科技股的最新一份财报显示中明显复苏的迹象,届时纳指才会逐渐醒过来。
    由于有前几次月考前后的走势作为参考,本周这几个交易日里要把握翻多翻空的实际并不是很难,学问反而都在反弹标的的选择上,超跌股反弹劲,提前反弹的则会回吐,科技股继续弱势,而资源股相对更强。就以大家都熟悉的新能源车产业链为例,  $Tesla(TSLA.US)$ 虽然在创近期新低,...
    $Nasdaq Composite Index(.IXIC.US)$Yesterday, when talking about Sichuan Jianguo's DWAC, I mentioned the option position ratio, and I can't get off work after the business is done today. By the way, I'll talk about the open position and trading volume of the option.
    What's the use of knowing these two? Help us to make a good choice of time and price when buying options.
    The number of open positions is how many options are still being held after yesterday's close.
    Trading volume is the number of options traded on the day.
    I set up a breakfast stall to sell breakfast. I bought 100 steamed buns. Today, I sold 80, the turnover is 80, and the number of outstanding positions is 100-80-20.
    How can I refer to it? If I want to make an option, before I buy and leave, I'd better go back and see which maturity date has more open positions in one or two months, because this represents that many people buy and hold options on this date and price, indicating that everyone is generally optimistic about this date and price, which may be what we usually call smart money.
    For example, I think NVIDIA Corp has an upward trend, combined with the graph, the target price is about 145. take a glance at the option chain outside 2 weeks (do not buy doomsday! On November 25th, 140,145,150 positions were open, and on December 2nd, 140,145and 150call were the most. The people who bet on 1 were the same as me. Plus 140 is close to the current price, the royalty of the 25th is 6.95, which is cheaper than 8.12 of the same price on December 2.
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