103956022
voted
(Kuala Lumpur, March 3) The overall performance of the banking industry in the second quarter of 2024 is good. Analysts predict that the net interest margin will stabilize in the future, and the prospects for profit growth remain bright, maintaining a positive rating.
According to Malayan Banking Investment Bank's latest report, based on its tracking of bank stocks, the core net profit of China's banking industry grew by 9% year-on-year in the first half of the year, mainly due to the continuous growth of operating profit by 7% and stable credit costs.
Therefore, analysts maintain a growth forecast of 7.6% in operating profit for the whole year of 2024.
This is mainly based on the forecasted domestic loan growth of 5.5%, average net interest margin expected to be 2.07%, non-interest income ratio of 25.1%, and cost-to-income ratio (CIR) forecasted to be 44.7%.
Taking into account the support of lower credit costs, namely 22 basis points, lower than 23 basis points in 2023, we have raised our core net profit growth expectation from 6.8% to 7.8%, while the average return on equity (ROE) of the banking industry is expected to be 10.4%.
Subtask: Low inflation can be maintained this year.
Analysts pointed out that the overall inflation rate last year was 2.5%. The bank's economists have lowered their inflation forecast for 2024 from the previous 3% to 2%, and expect inflation in 2025 to be in the range of 2.5% to 3%, due to the expected implementation of targeted fuel subsidies next year.
Although the current deposit interest rate has a positive return, given the prospect of rising inflation next year, it means that the central bank is unlikely to cut interest rates in the short term...
According to Malayan Banking Investment Bank's latest report, based on its tracking of bank stocks, the core net profit of China's banking industry grew by 9% year-on-year in the first half of the year, mainly due to the continuous growth of operating profit by 7% and stable credit costs.
Therefore, analysts maintain a growth forecast of 7.6% in operating profit for the whole year of 2024.
This is mainly based on the forecasted domestic loan growth of 5.5%, average net interest margin expected to be 2.07%, non-interest income ratio of 25.1%, and cost-to-income ratio (CIR) forecasted to be 44.7%.
Taking into account the support of lower credit costs, namely 22 basis points, lower than 23 basis points in 2023, we have raised our core net profit growth expectation from 6.8% to 7.8%, while the average return on equity (ROE) of the banking industry is expected to be 10.4%.
Subtask: Low inflation can be maintained this year.
Analysts pointed out that the overall inflation rate last year was 2.5%. The bank's economists have lowered their inflation forecast for 2024 from the previous 3% to 2%, and expect inflation in 2025 to be in the range of 2.5% to 3%, due to the expected implementation of targeted fuel subsidies next year.
Although the current deposit interest rate has a positive return, given the prospect of rising inflation next year, it means that the central bank is unlikely to cut interest rates in the short term...
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103956022
voted
Another major international investment bank is bullish on the prospects of the Chinese stock market. Japan's Nomura Securities believes that investors should reduce their holdings of Chinese stocks and instead invest in Malaysian and Indonesian stocks.
According to analysts from Nomura Securities, including Chettan Setti and others, in a recent report, Malaysian and Indonesian stock markets are expected to benefit from the trend of accelerated rate cuts in the United States, one of the reasons for upgrading the stock market ratings of both countries from "neutral" to "buy."
Nomura Securities has also downgraded the rating of the MSCI China Index from "buy" to "neutral."
"Now is the time to make a major move into the ASEAN stock market. With the Federal Reserve about to cut interest rates and investors reigniting their interest in emerging markets, investing in the Indonesian stock market may be the best bet."
Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has issued a clear signal of interest rate cuts starting in September.
Bloomberg pointed out that before Nomura Securities raised its ratings on Malaysia's and Indonesia's stock markets, foreign capital had shown increased interest in the two countries' stock markets, with two consecutive months of inflow of foreign capital.
"Investors have good reasons to take Nomura Securities' comments seriously. In December last year, they upgraded the Taiwan stock market, and the Taiwan Weighted Index has risen by 25% this year, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index has increased by 9.8% during the same period."
Before Nomura Securities, many internationally renowned investment banks or financial media, including JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Forbes, had already turned optimistic about the Malaysian market outlook.
$FTSE Taiwan50 Index (.FTTW50.TW)$
...
According to analysts from Nomura Securities, including Chettan Setti and others, in a recent report, Malaysian and Indonesian stock markets are expected to benefit from the trend of accelerated rate cuts in the United States, one of the reasons for upgrading the stock market ratings of both countries from "neutral" to "buy."
Nomura Securities has also downgraded the rating of the MSCI China Index from "buy" to "neutral."
"Now is the time to make a major move into the ASEAN stock market. With the Federal Reserve about to cut interest rates and investors reigniting their interest in emerging markets, investing in the Indonesian stock market may be the best bet."
Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has issued a clear signal of interest rate cuts starting in September.
Bloomberg pointed out that before Nomura Securities raised its ratings on Malaysia's and Indonesia's stock markets, foreign capital had shown increased interest in the two countries' stock markets, with two consecutive months of inflow of foreign capital.
"Investors have good reasons to take Nomura Securities' comments seriously. In December last year, they upgraded the Taiwan stock market, and the Taiwan Weighted Index has risen by 25% this year, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index has increased by 9.8% during the same period."
Before Nomura Securities, many internationally renowned investment banks or financial media, including JP Morgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Forbes, had already turned optimistic about the Malaysian market outlook.
$FTSE Taiwan50 Index (.FTTW50.TW)$
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