As one of the world's most important semiconductor powers, South Korea took the lead in releasing PMI data for July. Although exports continued to shrink, the performance was already better than market expectations. Among them, the rise in demand for automotive products and semiconductors slowed down the contraction of trade and achieved a trade surplus for 2 consecutive months
Meanwhile, the index of new export orders rose to 50.2%, breaking out of 16 months of continuous contraction, mainly due to a recovery in demand in the Asia-Pacific and European regions? Samsung, one of the world's technology leaders, recently announced Q2 results. Although revenue and net profit continued to narrow due to the impact of the general environment, performance increased 5% month-on-month, and the chip business also experienced a reversal phenomenon, with revenue rising 7% month-on-month, meaning that the consumer electronics industry is emerging from a sluggish cycle
Coupled with chip giants such as Intel and AMD all delivering performance that exceeded expectations, many investment banks are optimistic about demand growth in the second half of the year and expect the semiconductor industry to be out of the worst situation. With the support of these data, I believe that investors' willingness to hold technology companies will definitely be better than in the first half of the year. In particular, the performance of foreign investors buying back horse stocks seems to be fully prepared for the next rebound
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Australia's largest farm milk company, Bega Cheese, announced a few days ago that due to continued decline in production, the company must make provision deductions of 180 to 280 million yuan in advance. At the same time, it is expected that milk prices will rise again in FY2024
After the news was announced, the company's stock price reportedly fell, even falling below a new low in 10 years
The impact also extended to the Malaysian stock market. Farm Fresh, which claims to be Malaysia's number one fresh milk brand, once fell below a new low in listing on 4/7, and even entered the ranks of fairy stocks. In addition, the main competitor, DLady, is also pulling back one after another. The decline has far exceeded 10 new lows, facing the same experience as Bega Cheese
In fact, there is far more than one factor dragging down these two companies. Judging from the latest quarterly performance, Farm Fresh and Dlady both experienced large declines in net profit, including the impact of rising labor, processing, and electricity costs.
In addition to the fact that the market has high expectations for Farm Fresh itself, the valuation level will naturally also be very high. Once any changes occur, such as poor performance or this incident, the impact on investors will definitely be deeper
Therefore, the current pullback is only an initial reflection; the next key is to return to when the FFB can get rid of the effects of cost and supply issues. The streets are full of companies with higher valuations and lower dividend rates than banks. If you want to see them as a reference for value deployment, I'm sure you have better options
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Skyworld Development Berhad, listed on the main board on 10/7, is a real estate group with KL Center as a development zone. It mainly develops affordable and mid-class properties. From 2014 to now, 7 projects have been completed, with a total development value of more than 3b. The subscription rate for each project is as high as 90%. The order value up to the time of listing is 968b. It can be seen that the profit has been over 3 quarters
In addition, the Group has also won many awards over the past few years, such as Asia Pacific Real Estate Awards, BCI Asia Awards, Malaysia Kincentric Employers Awards, and Global Construction Excellence Awards. After the 2023Q4 results were announced, the annual turnover and net profit set record highs. The Group expects the value of new projects launched in FY2024 to exceed 1b, which means it will continue to grow
Although it has strong fundamentals, is lower than the valuation level of peers, and an initial 4% dividend rate advantage, it is unable to attract investors to enter the market. The situation is very similar to that of Radium, which went public a few days ago
Investors would rather leave at a loss of money than hold on
According to my observations, the only phenomenon that can be explained at the moment is the lack of capital in the market. Foreign capital has continued to leave the horse stock market for the past two months, and the support from local institutions and retail investors is also quite limited. Coupled with the drag of the continued economic slowdown, I don't think real estate is yet everyone's preferred field, so it's not that the group's value isn't in place, but it's a question of timing
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Gamuda is an infrastructure company with a long history. It was co-founded by Lin Yunlin and Mr. Guan Youyuan. Since its establishment in 1976, it has been a significant foundation for construction projects in Malaysia, such as North South Avenue, MRT/LRT rapid transit system, Smart Tunnel, LDP Avenue, and the upcoming Penang Island Reclamation Project (PSI)
Its business development covers 9 countries, including Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, the United Kingdom, Australia, Taiwan, India, Panama and Qatar
Since the government was changed in 2018, many large-scale projects have been put on hold or even cancelled, such as East Railway, Malaysia City, MRT3, and the Longxin High Speed Rail. At one point, they evaporated tens of billions of dollars in development value, and also brought the Malaysian infrastructure sector into a cold winter period. However, a good development foundation allowed Gamuda to quickly get out of the slump, such as actively bidding for foreign infrastructure orders, expanding real estate projects, and reducing dependence on government projects
A number of contracts have been obtained over the past few years. As of the latest records, the value of orders held is as high as RM25.1 billion, which is enough to contribute at least 3 years of revenue
Very healthy asset capacity and shareholder returns have made well-known local institutions such as PNB, EPF, KWP, and Lembaga Tabung Haji prominent shareholders over the years
Recently, 4 avenues were successfully sold and 1.47 billion yuan was allocated to acquire land in Ho Chi Minh City to build comprehensive development projects, plus the Australian infrastructure projects that have just been obtained
The money outlook for the next few years is very optimistic, and this is also for...

According to the latest market closing situation, the real estate sector has broken through a new high since April 2022, and has rebounded 23% from the bottom of last year/ trying to break out of the slump cycle since 2018. In particular, after Malaysia ushered in several coups d'état, capital has flowed back to this sector. It seems certain that the worst situation is over
In terms of support, most well-known real estate groups have delivered results in line with expectations in the past few quarters, such as Mahsing, Matrix, Spsetia, Ecoworld, and SimeProp. At the same time, the recovery in net profit also raised the dividend rate for the whole year
In terms of prospects, many large-scale projects have been put on hold after 2018, such as the Malaysia City and Longxin high-speed rail. These projects involve tens of billions of dollars in value, and the impact of the shelving on surrounding real estate development is definitely not small
However, according to the latest analysis report, the Solidarity Government intends to restart pending projects. For example, the Longxin High Speed Rail has reached a preliminary agreement and is currently discussing plans for a second home. Coupled with the Bank of China's help in stopping interest rate hikes, it's all good news that favors real estate development
Since the pandemic, real estate has been one of the areas that has recovered relatively rapidly. The average valuation for the past 5 years has remained below 10. Coupled with the lack of themes in the market and the help of many favorable conditions, the real estate sector has become a safe haven for investors, following the trend to push the sector out of the slump. So whether the rally can continue, I think the 2024 budget will be the biggest key
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The new governor (Chris Minns), located in New South Wales, Australia, said in an interview a few days ago that the government of the former DPRK had excessively relaxed the state's current construction of the Sydney Metro West Line project in Australia. Cost estimates have soared from the initial 16 billion Australian dollars to 25 billion Australian dollars, which has already exceeded the originally allocated budget, so it is intended to put the plan on hold, and it is not ruled out that it will be cancelled
However, the governor publicly stated two days later that it is currently only in the discussion stage, including how to reduce the budget, shorten or replace routes, and expand development value, etc. At the same time, he assured reporters that “if this plan is cancelled, you can cut off my head”
According to the contract, Gammuda was the general contractor for the project and received a contract worth 2.16 billion Australian dollars on March 1, 2022. Construction in April of the same year was also the group's most valuable hand order. As of the latest quarterly report, the Group has completed 26% of its progress. If it is cancelled, then the value of losses will exceed 1.5 billion dollars, which is 4.53 billion in Malaysian dollars
As a result, Gamuda has been somewhat shaken in the past few days since the news was announced. Today, it even fell below a new low in a month, and once pulled back close to 7.5%. However, to me, investors seem to have overdigested this message. In particular, the governor has stated that he will not rashly cancel all projects, urging the public to reassure the public
Coupled with the imminent opening of the MRT3 tender, the high-speed rail agency reconvening the screening process for the Longxin High Speed Rail, and the imminent arrival of the 2024 budget, I think Gamuda is still...