(Kuala Lumpur, March 3) The overall performance of the banking industry in the second quarter of 2024 is good. Analysts predict that the net interest margin will stabilize in the future, and the prospects for profit growth remain bright, maintaining a positive rating.
According to Malayan Banking Investment Bank's latest report, based on its tracking of bank stocks, the core net profit of China's banking industry grew by 9% year-on-year in the first half of the year, mainly due to the continuous growth of operating profit by 7% and stable credit costs.
Therefore, analysts maintain a growth forecast of 7.6% in operating profit for the whole year of 2024.
This is mainly based on the forecasted domestic loan growth of 5.5%, average net interest margin expected to be 2.07%, non-interest income ratio of 25.1%, and cost-to-income ratio (CIR) forecasted to be 44.7%.
Taking into account the support of lower credit costs, namely 22 basis points, lower than 23 basis points in 2023, we have raised our core net profit growth expectation from 6.8% to 7.8%, while the average return on equity (ROE) of the banking industry is expected to be 10.4%.
Subtask: Low inflation can be maintained this year.
Analysts pointed out that the overall inflation rate last year was 2.5%. The bank's economists have lowered their inflation forecast for 2024 from the previous 3% to 2%, and expect inflation in 2025 to be in the range of 2.5% to 3%, due to the expected implementation of targeted fuel subsidies next year.
Although the current deposit interest rate has a positive return, given the prospect of rising inflation next year, it means that the central bank is unlikely to cut interest rates in the short term...