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Recently, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell mentioned in a speech that real estate inflation has not "completely normalized" and it may take up to a year or longer to see significant improvement.
So, how much impact does rental inflation have? According to research from the Cleveland Federal Reserve, the rental inflation in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) may not return to pre-pandemic levels until mid-2026. Although some data shows a decrease in rents for new leases, the decreased mobility of the population means that the sample in the CPI cannot fully reflect the actual situation, making rental inflation appear more "sticky".
How does rental inflation affect interest rate policy?
Rent inflation accounts for a huge proportion in the CPI, with over half of the monthly increase in October coming from housing-related data. This poses direct pressure on the Federal Reserve in formulating interest rate reduction plans. If rent inflation remains high in the next eighteen months, policymakers who hope to use inflation easing as a basis for interest rate cuts will face challenges.
Omair Sharif, President of Inflation Insights LLC, said that even lagging indicators like rent will make communication by the Federal Reserve more difficult and may make interest rate cuts more controversial. Different opinions have already emerged within the Federal Reserve...

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