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加密大師兄 Private ID: 105603871
The Trader Fund 分析師
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    Bitcoin (Bitcoin, abbreviated as BTC, $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ ) As the world's first decentralized digital currency, its price has been highly volatile since its birth in 2009, attracting the attention of many investors. Bitcoin's price history can be roughly divided into several stages: During the budding period from 2009 to 2013, Bitcoin had almost no market price when it was just launched. IN 2010, A PROGRAMMER BOUGHT TWO PIZZAS WITH 10,000 BITCOINS, A TRANSACTION THAT BECAME THE STARTING POINT FOR BITCOIN. In 2013, Bitcoin broke through the $1,000 mark for the first time, marking its entry into mainstream view.
    During the growth period from 2014 to 2016, the price of Bitcoin experienced significant fluctuations. The 2014 Mt. The crash of the Gox exchange caused investor confidence to be frustrated, with Bitcoin's price dropping below $200 at one point. However, as more merchants accepted the popularity of Bitcoin payments and blockchain technology, its price gradually recovered, reaching about $900 by the end of 2016. During the breakout period of 2017, Bitcoin's price entered an epic bull market, surging from $1,000 at the beginning of the year to near $20,000 in December, mainly due to a surge in market speculation and a rush of initial token issuance (ICO).
    During the adjustment period from 2018 to 2020, Bitcoin experienced a major pullback, falling in price to near $3,000. Nevertheless, as the organization...
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    Nasdaq's official X account was attacked by hackers and used to promote fraudulent meme coins. The hackers associated a fake X account as a subsidiary account of Nasdaq, and used Nasdaq's official account to repost the account's posts, promoting a meme coin named STONKS created that day. The post has been deleted, and the fake X account has been suspended.
    The meme coin appears to be a counterfeit of an existing meme coin with the same name on Solana, of which Solana owns the intellectual property rights. According to DEXscreener's data, the market cap of the counterfeit meme coin STONKSD once soared to $80 million but then quickly collapsed. This incident follows a pattern of well-known X account hacks being used to promote fraudulent tokens, similar incidents involving celebrities and institutions have occurred in the past.
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    Despite Trump officially "ascending" today, he did not sign any executive orders related to Cryptos, but the market still holds great expectations for the USA to establish a Bitcoin (BTC) strategic reserve. Analyst at The Trader Funds are optimistic about this, but the pathway to realization may not align with public imagination.
    This possibility was first proposed by Trump himself last summer, sparking limitless imagination in the cryptocurrency market. Especially within the first 100 days after Trump officially took office, the market predicted that the likelihood of this initiative being implemented exceeded 50% (according to Polymarket data), but as of the time of writing, that prediction has fallen back to 36%.
    So, how will the USA's Bitcoin strategic reserve be realized? The following explores several potential pathways for realization.
    Strategic reserves are critical resources stored by a country to respond to emergencies, urgent situations, or special crises such as wars. The most famous example is the USA's Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which is the largest national oil reserve system in the world, holding approximately 0.7 billion barrels of oil. This reserve system was created by a congressional act in 1975 to address the impact of the 1973-1974 Arab oil embargo on the USA economy.
    Historically, the USA has drawn from oil reserves multiple times, such as during wars, when the Gulf Coast oil infrastructure was hit by hurricanes, or during the energy crisis of the Ukraine war.
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    Trump's return not only reshaped the political landscape of the USA but also injected new vitality into the Cryptos market. Bitcoin has shown a rare upward trend in the past two months, and the personal cryptocurrency "Trump Coin" ($Trump) launched by Trump has become a market focus, driving the entire Crypto Industry into a new development stage.
    On January 20, Trump's official return to the White House inauguration ceremony became the focus of global attention. On that day, the Cryptos market also saw two major highlights. First, Bitcoin prices continued to rise, with a daily increase of 2.75%, reaching $107,479 per coin. Bitcoin's increase this month has exceeded 10%, and investors have shown great optimism about its future prospects.
    Since Trump won the presidential election last November, Bitcoin prices have repeatedly hit new highs, breaking the $100,000 mark for the first time last month. Market analysts believe that this upward trend is closely related to Trump's policy expectations. He excitedly posted on the social platform Truth Social: "Congratulations to all Bitcoin holders! One hundred thousand dollars! Let's make America great again together!"
    In addition, Trump has decided to appoint cryptocurrency supporter Paul Atkins as the head of the US Securities and Exchange Commission. This move is interpreted as a major bullish signal for the cryptocurrency market, as it implies that the US government may further "de-regulate" to create a more relaxed development environment for cryptocurrencies.
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    The crypto market recently experienced a major shakeup. US President-elect Trump posted on his social account on January 18th local time, announcing the launch of his personal meme coin TRUMP. Users need to visit the website named 'gettrumpmemes' to obtain the token, and according to the information on that website, TRUMP is the only 'official Trump Meme coin'.
    Once launched, TRUMP coin quickly became popular. CoinGecko's price data shows that the token started trading at an opening price of $0.1824, surging over 15000% within just 12 hours to reach around $30, with its fully diluted market cap skyrocketing to $32 billion, surpassing established tokens like TRON, Avalanche, ChainLink, and Shiba Inu. At the time of writing, the price of TRUMP coin has risen to $62.83, with a token FDV reaching $62.89 billion.
    Some analysts point out that Trump's direct involvement in the token issuance blurs the lines between government role and business interests, and 80% of TRUMP coins are owned by the Trump Group, essentially 'profiteering from the presidential position.' However, analysts at The Trader Funds believe that the issuance of TRUMP coin marks the opening of the political meme coin market and the token's issuance on decentralized exchanges is a major innovation for the crypto ecosystem, optimistic about the 'Chain...
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    Boosted by positive inflation data in the USA, Bitcoin has shown strong performance since the new year, successfully returning to the $0.1 million mark, and stimulating a global market sentiment uplift. Expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have also increased as a result.
    On Thursday, $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ surging to around $100,800. Following the latest inflation data release by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bitcoin rose by over 3% in the previous trading day. $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$ and $XRP (XRP.CC)$ Meanwhile, other mainstream currencies have shown even more significant rebounds.
    A report shows that the core Consumer prices in the USA are gradually cooling, leading to increased market expectations of another rate cut by the Fed before July, while also boosting the Stocks and Bonds market. As the inauguration of President Trump on January 20 approaches, market focus is gradually shifting to the potential 'policy lightning war' he may launch after taking office, which may include measures to support the Cryptos industry.
    Investors are closely monitoring changes in US inflation, tariffs, and immigration policies, while also assessing the impact of Trump's commitment to 'making the USA the global capital of Cryptos' on the market. Trump has also expressed support for establishing a national Bitcoin reserve system, which undoubtedly further fuels market expectations.
    However, an important issue is that since Trump won the election on November 5th last year, the price of Bitcoin has surged by 50% and hit a historic high of $108,316 last month...
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    After the latest release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) data in the USA, the price of Bitcoin rebounded strongly, breaking through the $96,000 mark, with a 2.5% increase in the past 24 hours. Among mainstream altcoins, XRP and DOGE have performed well, each with a rise of 6% to 7%. The market sentiment is warming up, showing that investors' confidence in the crypto market is gradually strengthening.
    PPI data surpassing expectations injects momentum into the market.
    According to reports, the US PPI in December only increased by 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the previous month's 0.4% and also lower than the economists' consensus of 0.4%. As a forward-looking indicator of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the cooling of PPI signals further easing of inflationary pressure, which is a bullish signal for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The market generally believes that this will reduce the likelihood of further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, thereby boosting the risk assets market.
    Meanwhile, The Washington Post reported that sources close to the new Trump administration revealed plans by the President-elect to issue executive orders related to Cryptos after taking office. These orders may target the issue of 'debanking' and are expected to overturn the controversial SAB 121 policy, which restricts banks from providing services to cryptocurrency companies.
    Cryptocurrency billionaire and Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz mentioned last year that SAB...
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    On January 13, QCP Capital's latest analysis shows that the US non-farm payroll data reached 0.256 million, far higher than the expected 0.164 million, indicating signs of overheating in the economy. This has led to a slight cooling of market expectations for interest rate cuts and the possibility of a reintroduction of tariff policies from the Trump era, causing concerns in the market about inflation.
    Despite the macroeconomic pressure and lingering FUD sentiment related to the Silk Road, the support levels for Bitcoin and Ethereum are temporarily stable at $0.091 million and $3100 respectively. The options market volatility is showing a mild downward trend, only showing a slight Put bias before President Trump's inauguration. Data such as PPI, CPI, and unemployment rate will be successively released this week. Against the backdrop of the ongoing warming of the US economy, this week may be a key period to verify the role of Cryptos as an inflation hedging tool.
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    Behind the fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market hides complex capital flows and behavioral patterns. From market rises to falls, wealth effects, marginal buyers, leverage risks all play important roles. This article will explore how these factors drive the cyclical volatility of the market and provide some coping suggestions for investors.
    The fundamental reason for the market's rise is the influx of new funds. This inflow of funds not only drives prices up but also creates wealth effects, stimulating further development of the ecosystem. Airdrops are important tools for creating wealth effects. In September 2020, Uniswap distributed 400 UNI tokens to over 0.25 million addresses (valued at approximately $1400 at the time), with a total value exceeding $0.9 billion. This airdrop not only benefited users but also acted as a catalyst for the explosive growth of the DeFi ecosystem. In December 2023, Jito distributed 90 million JTO tokens to users, with a total value of up to $0.165 billion. Some users obtained returns of up to $0.01 million by transferring JitoSOL tokens worth only $40. Similar to Uniswap's impact on DeFi, Jito's airdrop drove the growth of Solana's total value locked (TVL) and sparked a significant amount of on-chain activities. In addition, the Jupiter project distributed 0.7 billion JUP tokens to over 2.3 million wallets, becoming one of the widest distribution airdrops in crypto history. These airdrops convert users into stakeholders, and beneficiaries often reinvest wealth back into the ecosystem, creating a self-reinforcing positive cycle.
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    Analyzing the driving forces of the cryptocurrency market's fluctuations: wealth effect, capital flow, and leverage risks.
    Bitcoin's recent market conditions are not very clear, so do not enter easily. The suggestion is to wait for the NFP data to be released, and then assess the situation before entering.
    You can take a look."How Does NFP Affect Cryptocurrency"
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