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xiaoniulinju小牛邻居 Male ID: 151712529
美股兴趣爱好者
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    我最近听到一个我喜欢的词: 思想流动性.当世界发生变化或人们遇到新信息时,如何能够迅速放弃以前的理念的能力.毋庸置疑心理流动性是稀缺的.改变主意是很难的,因为欺骗自己相信谎言比承认错误更容易些.
    爱因斯坦曾经一度很讨厌量子物理学的说法.
    他自己的物理学理论是基于经典牛顿物理学的.牛顿物理学认为宇宙以纯净、理性、可以精确测量的方式运行.然而量子理论却认为物理世界的某些部分是无法测量的.因为测量亚原子粒子的行为本身就改变了物体的运动.在尝试衡量世界这个部分时,我们能做的最好的事情就只能是用概率和可能性.
    这对爱因斯坦来说几乎是异端谬论,他也清楚地让他的量子理论同行知道他的评判和观点.
    1927 年他曾对一群物理学家说“一个人无法根据大量‘可能’得出一个理论”他说上帝“不会去掷骰子”
    他的同行很失望,说 “爱因斯坦,你怎么能这么说呢”量子物理学家保罗·埃伦费斯特说.他觉得这位伟大的物理学家和那些曾经怀疑爱因斯坦相对论的人一样固执.
    五年内一批量子物理学家获得了诺贝尔奖,科学界承认了他们的贡献并验证了量子理论.
    但颁奖典礼上没有提及的却是该获奖小组是由爱因斯坦本人提名的.
    “我相信这...
    思想的变化
    Columns 关于优点
    大卫布鲁克斯区分了“人生履历中提到的优点”和“悼词中被提到的优点“的区别.
    履历中提到的优点往往是收入、职位和房子的大小;悼词提到的优点往往是指乐于助人、关爱、诚实和被铭记。
    但具有讽刺意味的是,很多人会向往后者,但却把所有的精力都放在了前者身上.
    摘译自 Morgan Housel Feb 2023
    关于优点
    Columns 余音绕梁
    我在大学里曾有一位教授曾经为 Adob​​e 工作过.他说创建 Photoshop 的工程师不知道用户会如何使用软件中的每个滤镜和工具细节.他们只是尝试开发每一种可以想象到的方式来操纵图像工具.并相信艺术家和设计师会发现他们所创造性工具性能.
    很多事情都是这样运作的:它们对世界的价值并不完全为它们的创造者所了解或像预测那样的.
    Visa 创始人 Dee Hock 说“一本书远不止作者写的东西的部分,它还包括您可以想象和阅读后的加进去的所有内容”
    作家詹姆斯·帕特森 (James Patterson) 说“阅读最棒的事情之一就是当你没有在读书的时候,也总能想到一些书中延展的事情”
    马克·吐温 (Mark Twain) 说得最好他说“瓦格纳的音乐比听起来更好更耐人寻味”
    摘译自 Morgan Housel Feb 2023
    余音绕梁
    Columns 穷和富
    威廉范德比尔特是有史以来最富有的继承人之一.但是不要羡慕——因为他的生活一点也不快乐.
    就在 1920 年去世之前,范德比尔特告诉纽约时报“我的生活注定不会很幸福.继承的财富是幸福的真正障碍.就像可卡因会败坏道德一样会抹杀雄心壮志”
    有趣的是该话题的另一端——过度的野心——可能同样令人痛苦.
    半个世纪前马克吐温写信给威廉范德比尔特的祖父科尼利厄斯范德比尔特:
    我多么可怜你,这是真的.你年纪大了,应该休息一下,但你却不得不挣扎,否定自己,丢掉了自己的睡眠和心灵的平静,因为你太需要钱了,我同情像你这样”穷困潦倒”的人.
    别误会,范德比尔特拥有 7000 万美元.但是你我都知道一个人拥有的并不是仅仅是财富.满足一个人当下所拥有的,那才是真正的财富.
    摘译自 Morgan Housel Feb 2023
    穷和富
    The physical appearance attraction is something that everyone can see and understand intuitively, but is difficult to express in words.
    So what makes a captivating face? It's hard to describe. When you see a good example, you just know it.
    Several studies have tried to unlock the code of facial attractiveness. One of the most compelling arguments is that faces with average features tend to be the most attractive.
    Taking a sample of 1000 people, software programs generate their average faces - artificially created faces with average cheekbone height, average interocular distance, and average lip fullness, among others. Especially cross-cultural (mixed race) images are often the most likely to be judged as the most attractive and are frequently used.
    One evolutionary explanation is that non-average traits may have higher reproductive risks than average levels. They may or may not affect reproductive health, but it's like nature is implying, "Why take the risk? Stick to the average level."
    People prefer familiarity. This applies not only to faces but also to products, occupations, and styles. It's almost like nature's risk management system.
    Translated from Morgan Housel Feb 2023.
    Translated
    Average value of physical attractiveness.
    作者 R.L. Stine 是有史以来最畅销的作家之一.他的鸡皮疙瘩系列恐怖儿童读物已售出超过 4 亿册.
    但恐怖并不是他的第一幕. Stine 在他职业生涯的前二十年里一直在写儿童笑话书.
    他发现,吓唬人比逗他们笑更容易.
    “每个人都有不同的幽默感,但我们更是都有同样的恐惧”他说 “孩子们都害怕黑暗,害怕迷路,害怕来到一个新的地方.这些恐惧永远不会改变”
    每个人都有不同的性格和品味,但情绪——尤其是恐惧和贪婪——往往是普遍的.
    摘译自 Morgan Housel Feb 2023
    搞笑和吓唬人的比较
    A year ago, after the huge bull market in 2021, I pointed out that investors chasing hot results are often burned to death, and just last week I described how investors fleeing volatility may always not get what they want.
    Blogger Ben Carlson recently pointed out: The two columns are almost a full year apart, like bookends. They show the opposite polarization of the stock market and shareholders. Why is it so difficult to buy low and sell high?
    When you buy high and sell low, you choose the path of least resistance: in a bull market, buying high feels great. Bash! But selling at a high price — or just buying more at a high price — is hard to do. It feels like you can't discourage people at a party; you must participate. I'm afraid I'll miss out on the best opportunity to make money easily.
    In a bear market, selling at a low price brings relief (at least in the short term). At the same time, buying at a low price — or even staying the same when others panic — feels like throwing money around.
    Buying and holding investments is often derided as a blind “one and for all” approach. But don't ignore the fact that resisting extreme market forces requires great emotional discipline.
    It's relatively easy to set it up, and the hardest part is to forget it. Every day the investment industry bombards you with hype about recent performance and pretend to anticipate the future, trying to get you to buy high and sell low. That's why discipline is so important.
    Just like Cliff Asness, founder of AQR Capital Management...
    Translated
    Why is it so difficult to buy low and sell high?
    The last words of actor David Cassidy were "I wasted too much time in my life."
    It is a terrifying thing to realize too late in life. As many of us spend our days aimlessly playing with our phones, this wastefulness of time becomes more common.
    Regrets are a dangerous burden, as their ultimate cost is often hidden for years or decades. Decisions that are easy to make in the short term often come at a higher long-term cost.
    Daniel Kahneman once said that to be an excellent investor, an important quality is to have an accurate understanding of your future regrets. If things don't go as you expected, you need to accurately understand and grasp the direction.
    Regret is the best definition of risk.
    Risk is not how much money you may lose. It's not even how you feel when you lose it - with time, many painful experiences turn into valuable lessons. The real risk is the possibility of regret years or decades later.
    Jeff Bezos once described his decision to start the online bookstore Amazon in the mid-1990s: "The framework that makes decision-making extremely easy is the framework of minimizing regrets. Project yourself to the age of 80, and then look back on your life, trying to minimize regrets. It will be very important when you're 80 not to have regrets about having tried to participate in this thing called the internet."
    "But what I know I would truly regret is not having participated when the Internet had been in its early stages."
    Translated
    Risks and regrets.
    This basically dates back to 14th century Italy, when bankers did business and trade on a large bench. They called it a bench, but it looked more like a large table.
    But for all intents and purposes, they'll sit on this bench. They have tables, and in Italy they basically sit on benches around tables. You can imagine places like Venice, where all these bankers sit in the yard and they do their banking business on this bench.
    If the bankers are insolvent and they are unable to continue borrowing or making payments, then publicly state and leave in shame to let people know that he is insolvent and is unable to continue and be out of the game. That person left a half-bench is a public sign of bankruptcy.
    The Italian phrase at the time was bancar rta. It meant a bad bench. It meant bankruptcy. This is where our word bankruptcy comes from.
    Excerpt from Feb5 2023 Investor Amnesia Jamie Catherwood
    Translated
    The origin of the term bankruptcy
    Investing once won't make you rich;
    only possible with continued investment;
    Exercising once will not make you healthy;
    It is only possible if you exercise relentlessly;
    Reading it once won't make you smart;
    It is only possible if you read consistently;
    Persistent action is the key to getting everything you want.
    Excerpted from Brian Feroldi Jan 31 2023
    Translated
    Persistent action