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$Baidu (BIDU.US)$
About the evaluation of self-driving (AI) in Germany.
Chinese manufacturers dominate.
🇯🇵Toyota is completely out of the question 😅
What is interesting is
Huawei and Baidu
Top in EV passengers carried
Point where it exceeds BYD
Baidu is
The number of patent applications
The world's number one in deep learning and Self-Driving Cars
My 2025
Even in the NISA growth investment framework
Already purchased stocks
About the evaluation of self-driving (AI) in Germany.
Chinese manufacturers dominate.
🇯🇵Toyota is completely out of the question 😅
What is interesting is
Huawei and Baidu
Top in EV passengers carried
Point where it exceeds BYD
Baidu is
The number of patent applications
The world's number one in deep learning and Self-Driving Cars
My 2025
Even in the NISA growth investment framework
Already purchased stocks
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$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$
It's too scary that there are so many people on social media who are casually holding Leveraged ETFs for long-term, even though the securities company is explicitly warning that by nature, holding them will only lead to losses for day trading.
It's too scary that there are so many people on social media who are casually holding Leveraged ETFs for long-term, even though the securities company is explicitly warning that by nature, holding them will only lead to losses for day trading.
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$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$
In March, the U.S., which is largely on the track of the tiger, wrote on a bulletin board that there is a risk of rising long-term interest rates, and realized that TMF, which was IN in December 2023, did not rise.
I had a feeling since January, but in March I became convinced and honestly accepted my mistake.
Even if it goes up, I don't think it will exceed the peak set in December...
Unfortunately, it turned out as I thought.
At the time of purchase, I did not understand well the characteristics and relationships of government bonds, stocks, Gold, and other assets.
It was rewarding to be able to understand the macro perspective by holding them.
In February 2025, there is a scheduled historic large-scale revision of employment Statistics.
The expected number is below 0.8 million, but it is said to actually reach 1 million people.
This may become a negative surprise and change the situation.
The issue is whether the long-term interest rates, on which many have bet a majority of their assets, will decrease.
Honestly, I am not confident enough to say that it will drop that much.
Because central banks around the world are reducing US bond holdings.
In terms of stocks, the volume entering the market due to the elimination of consolidations has increased...
In March, the U.S., which is largely on the track of the tiger, wrote on a bulletin board that there is a risk of rising long-term interest rates, and realized that TMF, which was IN in December 2023, did not rise.
I had a feeling since January, but in March I became convinced and honestly accepted my mistake.
Even if it goes up, I don't think it will exceed the peak set in December...
Unfortunately, it turned out as I thought.
At the time of purchase, I did not understand well the characteristics and relationships of government bonds, stocks, Gold, and other assets.
It was rewarding to be able to understand the macro perspective by holding them.
In February 2025, there is a scheduled historic large-scale revision of employment Statistics.
The expected number is below 0.8 million, but it is said to actually reach 1 million people.
This may become a negative surprise and change the situation.
The issue is whether the long-term interest rates, on which many have bet a majority of their assets, will decrease.
Honestly, I am not confident enough to say that it will drop that much.
Because central banks around the world are reducing US bond holdings.
In terms of stocks, the volume entering the market due to the elimination of consolidations has increased...
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December is usually expected to see a rise in stock prices, but it's been a bit lackluster recently. It's +1.5% month-to-date in yen terms, but -1.1% in dollar terms. I think caution is needed when only large-cap growth stocks are rising.
The satellite portfolio is as follows.
As for the investment policy, aiming for 20% in QQQM and 50% in total of sector ETFs in the portfolio. This week, only sold QQQM and XLC in the rebalancing. Tried to avoid opportunity loss by adding a little SPXL, but it may have been a bit of a failure.
The Sector ETFs are as follows:
Sector ETFs, including large-cap growth, performing well: XLK (AAPL, NVDA, MSFT), XLC (META, GOOG, NFLX), XLY (AMZN, TSLA). On the other hand, the performance of other ETFs is not so good.
I am comparing SPY and RSP, but it seems that everything except large tech stocks is not doing well. I think a little caution is necessary. Since XLK is the largest, I am thinking of taking profit.
Next week's gaming plan
① CDNS, MU have trailing stops set at 5%...
The satellite portfolio is as follows.
As for the investment policy, aiming for 20% in QQQM and 50% in total of sector ETFs in the portfolio. This week, only sold QQQM and XLC in the rebalancing. Tried to avoid opportunity loss by adding a little SPXL, but it may have been a bit of a failure.
The Sector ETFs are as follows:
Sector ETFs, including large-cap growth, performing well: XLK (AAPL, NVDA, MSFT), XLC (META, GOOG, NFLX), XLY (AMZN, TSLA). On the other hand, the performance of other ETFs is not so good.
I am comparing SPY and RSP, but it seems that everything except large tech stocks is not doing well. I think a little caution is necessary. Since XLK is the largest, I am thinking of taking profit.
Next week's gaming plan
① CDNS, MU have trailing stops set at 5%...
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Something other than Large Cap stocks are falling, and it feels unpleasant.
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$
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$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$ I honestly don't understand the feelings of people who continue to adhere to leverage etfs of bonds that have significantly underperformed stocks in recent years. I remember a time when these types of discussions were rampant on bulletin boards, YouTube, etc. I think those who continued to bet heavily experienced significant missed opportunities just from that. But what do they think will happen in the future that will cause them to rise even more than stocks? Of course, no one knows the future, and events that cannot even be imagined, like the COVID-19 pandemic, may occur. Naturally, fees and taxes will be taken if you continue to trade. I have also traded in the short term, but now I have no intention at all. If you can't switch your mindset, personally I don't think it's a good idea to easily invest in good stocks.
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$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$
How many times do I have to say that despair is buy...
How many times do I have to say that despair is buy...
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$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$ Last year, perhaps I prematurely bought in anticipation of a hard landing, suffered a huge loss at first. Then I bought back, thinking this time for sure, but towards the end of the year, reconsidered that this might be a soft landing, decided not to sell at the peak, sold it for 61 dollars, managed to end up with a significant profit, and shifted to betting on high tech. Now, apart from the s&p500, most of the satellite holdings are in the nasdaq 100 and nvidia. What I clearly realize is that no one can predict the market, and you have to make adjustments as needed. In that sense, leveraged products are extremely sensitive and you must always ride the trend; they are the most challenging products. I also held SOXL until recently, but now I only hold nvidia in the semiconductor sector. I may never know what was right, but if you're buying individual stocks and leverage, you always need to question whether your own thinking is right, observe the market continuously. If you don't like that, I thought that buying the s&p500 would give you good odds.
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$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$
Let's take a look at the past!
There was a period of significant volatility from around September 2023 to November.
And the CPI core trend during the same period has not changed.
And CPI seems to be in a constant range.
From what I see, it doesn't seem to have any impact at all. It would be worrisome if the expected inflation exceeded 4.0 and became an upward trend.
The reaction to interest rates is too excessive.
Let's take a look at the past!
There was a period of significant volatility from around September 2023 to November.
And the CPI core trend during the same period has not changed.
And CPI seems to be in a constant range.
From what I see, it doesn't seem to have any impact at all. It would be worrisome if the expected inflation exceeded 4.0 and became an upward trend.
The reaction to interest rates is too excessive.
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$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$
The attempted assassination of Trump made his victory certain. Should I sell TMF once interest rates rise and the yen appreciates?
The attempted assassination of Trump made his victory certain. Should I sell TMF once interest rates rise and the yen appreciates?
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